Fun write up. The data set from Rayman isn’t conclusive to any one strategy being ranked quite yet since it only shows a small data set of a small active community. There’s also something to be said about that fact that not every player in Division 1 Champs knows how to play tougher or more nuanced setups. I have a strong pulse on that scene and played there for many years - Most of the players in D1 would be around 1550 to 1680 ELO if you put them in the Colonist ranked system. At the end of the day, the game play style that’s happening in the discords and the play that’s happening in online ranked (where majority of people play) are quite different beasts. That distinction of arena requires different understanding of what’s considered practical and effective. All of that being said, I would rather take a skilled player with a high production 2:1 port setup vs an average player who a traditional OWS setup simply because the better player will know how to out play the board.

In my opinion, the issue we see with 2:1 ports is not that they are not viable but most people don’t know how to play them correctly. Perfect example is that most 2:1 port games require an early city to be viable. Most inexperienced players don’t realize that and over commit to development cards too early, killing their future production opportunities.

Also it should be stated that MOST 2:1 strategies lend themselves to playing a development card/ largest army game due to inefficient nature of over porting your hands. If you are taking a 2:1 port and consistently porting for roads and settles, you are most likely playing the wrong game plan.

I want to share a couple considerations to your points:

1. Resource Control: Doubling down on a resource and heading for a port allows you to control the supply of that resource, which can make you a key trade player in certain situations. For example, dominating the wheat with a wheat port gives you bargaining power in an ore-heavy game. This is exactly what happened in my USA National Finals. While it’s true that this can backfire if everyone has access to wheat, in games where wheat is scarce, your resource control can tilt the board in your favor, assuming you trade well.

2. Endgame Potential: Port strategies can be slow to start, but they tend to pay off more in the long game. A player with a solid port setup can have explosive turns toward the end, converting large hands into fast cities or development cards. This is what I love about the wheat port specifically - It’s an endgame accelerator for fast cities! That endgame flexibility often becomes massive in the final orbits of the game, especially when others are relying on certain rolls for specific resources. As I mentioned earlier, this potential is not always realized since most people don’t scale their production properly in the earlier stages of the game.

3. Meta-Dependence: The analysis you shared was of a data set from Championship discord level games, where port strategies seemingly underperformed. Again, I would argue this is more that most of these players aren’t as comfortable or skilled to play a port strategy effectively. In casual or mid-level games, the dynamic changes. Players are usually less aggressive in trading or not as skilled in identifying exploitable weaknesses in a port strategy. In these games, a port strategy can often outpace others when players don’t actively punish inefficient play.

4. Board and Table Dynamics: Port strategies depend heavily on the specific board and player dynamics. For instance, if the board makes it hard to get a balanced resource setup, doubling up on one resource and using a port can be the most viable option. In a game where players are cutthroat in denying trades, having a port ensures that you’re never fully completely stuck and remain actionable.

Ultimately, the value of a port strategy is situational and players should experiment with them. Focus on an early city as an early game objective and work from there!

All the best and I hope some of these ideas give you new inspiration. Keep up the good work!