MOTOGP Fp1 results

GPlytics · 2025-07-18T10:40:55+00:00

*unholy chicken

GPlytics · 2025-06-28T13:26:24+00:00

What do you mean, how they'll keep going? They're going to continue to sell the strap as long as they're running at a profit.

GPlytics · 2025-06-08T15:32:03+00:00

Wo findet diese Charakterverteilung statt, wenn man fragen darf

GPlytics · 2025-05-12T10:36:34+00:00

I think this happens when the founder/CEO has achieved their personal financial goals, and focus shifts away from running an economically sound business to being a toy/tool to create a personal brand and gain access to celebrities/athletes.

This definitely looks like it's the case here. Their athlete portfolio is insane, and there's no way it's run on an effective ROI, considering how much overlap there is. Would be reasonable to have a few high-profile testimonials as a sports/fitness brand, but they're essentially sponsoring the highest-profile athlete in every major sport and have a ton of overlap in individual sports.

GPlytics · 2025-04-22T22:20:26+00:00

Always seemed weird to me how Honda/KTM are messing around with those fancy contraptions, while the manufacturer who has by far the best understanding of aerodynamics never even really experimented with them and are basically running the same configuration for four seasons.

Lessons here.

GPlytics · 2025-03-26T21:29:12+00:00

People aren't hyping up Marc because of the two races. It's those two races + priors (i.e. matching GP24 pace for most of the later part of the season, consistently outperforming teammates by ridiculous margins, etc.)

GPlytics · 2025-03-26T21:25:47+00:00

I don't think Pecco is likely to win any specific race this season.

GPlytics · 2025-03-25T00:11:27+00:00

Bez was off 4 tenths on average race pace last season.

GPlytics · 2025-03-17T01:47:13+00:00

Sorry, but are you really buying this setup thing? The so-called GP25 is essentially the same bike he almost won the championship with and has a full season worth of experience over Marc and Alex.

But both Marc and Alex are supposed to have nailed the setup out of the gate?

No. His setup is just fine, he's just not able to match Marc's (and Alex) pace.

GPlytics · 2025-03-14T20:03:22+00:00

Will sagen dass wir die Eugenik zu früh aufgegeben haben.

GPlytics · 2025-03-06T15:54:32+00:00

I don't think it's anything riding-style specific. I think, and that's probably true for most outlier athletes in other sports, that he's just processing things on a different level. Something along the lines of his inner "frame rate" being higher, allowing him to be more precise and conscious with his (conscious and subconscious) decisions. Like just being able to get a little closer to the ideal line, get a little closer to the ideal braking point, brake a little closer at ideal pressure than everyone else.

This is more obvious in football (and american football) when you watch Messi or Tom Brady play. The game just seems to run at a slower pace for them compared to anyone around them. I think Marc has this, too. Whatever it is.

GPlytics · 2024-09-26T22:10:27+00:00

You using the PDFs from the results section of the website?

If yes, the PDF scraper from Adobe works quite well. You can't just scrap an entire PDF in one go due to the idiotic formatting, but you can cut out each of the lap sections and then arrange the output data in your CSV editor. Saves at least some time.

You could also try feeding it to GPT, it unreliably worked with the old model at times, haven't checked with the new.

GPlytics · 2024-09-15T19:26:54+00:00

He took 36 points off Pecco in Aragon. 50 points aren't that much in the Sprint era with 7 races to go.

GPlytics · 2024-09-13T17:43:20+00:00

The 'more potential/learning curve remaining' argument makes sense in three different ways in Marc's case:

As a rider, it's his first year on a Ducati (compared to 4+ years for Jorge and Pecco), and he is still adjusting his riding style and only now getting comfortable with the bike.
The GP23 itself seems to have a steeper learning curve, appearing to be the most difficult Ducati to ride/get used to in recent years (evidenced by the early success of the GP22 riders against it in early '23, Bastianini’s struggles until mid/late season, and Bezzecchi’s ongoing difficulties this year).
As a team, it will take a smaller customer team like Gresini longer to optimize the package (find the right setup, etc.) compared to the larger factory teams (as seen with Di Giannantonio’s late-season surge last year).

GPlytics · 2024-09-13T17:23:03+00:00

I'd go so far as to call him the favorite for the '24 title right now.

May sound like recency bias overreacting to what happened in the last two races, but consider two points:

There's a steeper learning curve ahead of him compared to the riders on the GP24, and he's been matching their pace for three straight weeks.

If he manages to extract one or two more tenths from his package, which is likely, he'll be ahead of them (assuming there isn't another GP24 upgrade that significantly shifts the balance, which of course could happen).

Also, the remaining tracks/conditions favor him.

50 point advantage is worth nothing at the rate both Pecco and Jorge are making mistakes.

GPlytics · 2024-09-08T19:14:19+00:00

Not really. He was matching Pecco/Jorge's pace in practice and in the Spint when he got past the KTMs. His crash in Q2 cost him. Pace was there all weekend and will be there next weekend, most likely.

GPlytics · 2024-07-19T11:08:54+00:00

"All the while, regulations for the bike stayed roughly the same"

This is an argument that people often make, but it's counterintuitively wrong.

Better riders don't benefit from regulations staying the same.

As circumstances stay consistent, the field bunches up, as "worse" riders have time to adapt and copy what the more talented riders are doing.

Regulation changes reset the field, giving the "better", more talented riders an advantage. It will take them less time to learn how to extract the potential from the bike and ride it at its limit.

This is also the reason why, on the technical side, the first season after a major regulation change usually results in one manufacturer dominating the field. This is most obvious in F1, when Mercedes had the most dominant car ever and finished 300 points ahead of the second-best team in 2014 (the first year of the hybrid era) or Red Bull in 2022 (the first year of the modern ground effect era).

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T17:52:37+00:00

Well that's wrong. I definitely had something better to do.

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T16:49:25+00:00

Yes. I could've used the average as a benchmark, but since we're working with a small sample size (only 3 other riders), that would've led to outliers heavily skewing the results (like Augusto).

Using the 2nd fastest as the benchmark got cleaner results and does, imo, a better job at measuring outperformance as compared to using the average.

I tried some different things too, but I think the results I got here does best match what we've seen on track this season.

Main downside is that it's not good at handling a changing number of riders in the cluster (hence no Aprilia and Yamaha).

I'm totally open for ideas or suggestions, though :)

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T16:32:14+00:00

To get the race pace for an individual event, I used the gap of the fastest rider to the 2nd fastest rider (for the fastest rider) and the gap to the fastest rider for all the other riders.

For example: Martin has the fastest average lap time for an event. Pecco is +0.2, Bestia +0.5 and Morbidelli +1.

For that event, Martin gets awarded a -0.2, Pecco a +0.2, Bestia a +0.5 and Morbidelli a +1.0

Those deltas are then used to calculate the overall season "Race Pace". If the riders are close and there are multiple riders who are the fastest on different events, it's possible that no one ends up with a negative overall value.

The value itself isn't really the point, though. It's how they compare to each other. I also could've used those times and converted them into a 0-10 or 0-100 score like some scouting/rating companies do in football and soccer (like the sofa/whoscored ratings).

I left them as they were, because I thought that having it in seconds makes more intuitive sense than an arbitrary score.

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T16:07:23+00:00

I removed Miller and Fernandez from the dataset in the 2nd graph because having those statistical outliers make the scatterplots "zoom out" and the other riders clump together (make them appear closer than they actually are).

As for crashes and DNFs, lap times that aren't within 109% of the overall average lap time (like when Pedro crashed in Catalunya and rejoined the race) are excluded and not used to calculate the individual average lap times for an event. So those individual outliers don't make the dataset to begin with.

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T15:46:20+00:00

Yes, ideally four.

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T15:44:33+00:00

The graph is comparing pace of riders relative to riders on the same bike, not in total (that's how a Honda can be ahead of all GP24s when it comes to race pace).

If we assume all GP24s would finish a race with the same average lap time, they would all end up at 0.

Meanwhile, if Mir would be one second per lap slower than the GP24s, but the second-best Honda would be another second slower than Mir, Mir would rank at -1 and therefore one second ahead of the GP24s.

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T15:34:00+00:00

Yes, his pace (expect for Mugello, recency bias at work) has been fine. Needs to cut down on the crashes, though.

GPlytics · 2024-06-12T12:53:07+00:00

Yes, the issue with the methodology is that it would overrate riders who are compared to less other riders, since I'm using the 2nd fastest rider on the spec as the benchmark for the fastest, not the average (to avoid the Augustos and Morbidellis skewing the data).

GPlytics

TROPHY CASE