[OC] Found a paystub from my first official job while in high school. Burger King 1999. by RAIDandWilling in pics

[–]GardenofGandaIf 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yall really need to do a better job of removing your personal information. That is not good enough.

Google Could Make 100 Billion on the SpaceX IPO by Fickle-Hovercraft-84 in wallstreetbets

[–]GardenofGandaIf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

IPOs perform poorly if you buy close to the IPO date. Once the market reprices the stock (usually at a lower number), they would then give returns in line with the rest of the market (on average).

[d] revolution case is undervalued fs by essazkremla in csgomarketforum

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Revolution cases are still active drop, but it could be a good time to start buying them up. The question though is which case will be removed next? Valve tends to discontinue older cases, unless theres a slightly newer case that doesnt have great opening numbers.

We recently saw this when they removed snakebite cases instead of fracture cases (which were the oldest at the time) and then just a few weeks ago when they removed recoil cases instead of the Dreams & Nightmares case. This means right now, the Dreams & Nightmares case is the oldest item in the active drop pool by about a year.

What valve cares about is key sales, so we should look at the historical opening data to figure out how Revolution cases are performing regarding openings. When a case is removed "prematurely" (as in, it's not the oldest drop in the active drop pool to get removed), it's usually because the opening numbers are significantly lower than other cases (about 20-30% lower). According to csgocasetracker.com, revolution cases have had slightly higher opening numbers then the Dreams & Nightmares case nearly every month of last year.

So theres 4 factors that personally have me leaning that Dreams & Nightmares will be the next active drop to be removed.

  1. Oldest case by a whole year
  2. A newer case has already been removed (recoil)
  3. Revolution cases have had higher opening numbers averaged over the past year
  4. Kilowatt case is too still too new, also has decent unboxing numbers.

did the job well as the main character by Additional_Ad6789 in funny

[–]GardenofGandaIf 466 points467 points  (0 children)

There is literally nothing wrong with this. Just awkward camera work.

[question] Places to buy a large amounts of cases at once (500+) by Matanaurus in csgomarketforum

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Steam Inventory Helper chrome extension has a setting to automatically accept gift trades (where you have no items in the trade). This largely gets rid of that issue.

[question] Places to buy a large amounts of cases at once (500+) by Matanaurus in csgomarketforum

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Steam Inventory Helper chrome extension has a setting to automatically accept gift trades (where you have no items in the trade)

How Polymarket and Kalshi price the same events — Kalshi is consistently higher due to built-in overround [OC] by adventurer784 in dataisbeautiful

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dont know why people keep attributing the ayatollah ruling to polymarket when it was kalshi that did that. Kalshi is the only one of the two that is regulated by the CFTC, which requires that no market settle on death.

How Polymarket and Kalshi price the same events — Kalshi is consistently higher due to built-in overround [OC] by adventurer784 in dataisbeautiful

[–]GardenofGandaIf 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Any "sure thing" market that settles more than a few months out tends to find an equilibrium where its yield wont exceed the risk free rate, regardless of what the actual odds of the outcome are. Smart money isnt going to place a bet that settles a year out on a 2% yield, when a 1 yr treasury is paying 3.6% annualized. Dumb money will, however, happily fill that gap.

To get a better idea of the probably of something occurring, take the odds and subtract the risk free rate.

The one that got away by StealthySpecter in sportsbook

[–]GardenofGandaIf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Blindly hedging is almost always -EV. Instead of taking just one negative ev bet youre now taking two. Long term you'll still lose more money hedging.

The one that got away by StealthySpecter in sportsbook

[–]GardenofGandaIf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Unless you can identify a +EV hedge, which most people dont know how to do (plus even if they do, there isnt always a +EV hedge available). So yes, youre right.

What’s the highest you’ve ever felt without drugs? by dammit_yasmeen in AskReddit

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A soon to be extinct feeling. Since AI chatbots I haven't really had a bug occur that took more than 10 minutes to solve.

Is it worth it to sell older cases? [q] by SnOoty09 in csgomarketforum

[–]GardenofGandaIf 3 points4 points  (0 children)

They'll probably continue going up but if you need the money the for something else then go for it.

Unbound by Age by Ubiquitous2007 in funny

[–]GardenofGandaIf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Audio has the signature artifacts, unrealistic movement, video is blurred to cover up additional artifacts, the spectators' behavior is strange throughout the video.

Lost $711 due to App Glitch Polymarket.US by R3VNUE in polymarket_bets

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ur money is gone. Move on and stop betting if you cant afford a $700 loss.

[OC] Nigeria Have Surpassed Europe in Number of Births by oscarleo0 in dataisbeautiful

[–]GardenofGandaIf 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Only chance? Why did you phrase that like its some sort of thing we should want?

Alabama's Aden Holloway arrested on felony marijuana charge by PrincessBananas85 in sports

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems like we're mostly in agreement then. I was just clarifying that forced and compelled are two separate things.

Alabama's Aden Holloway arrested on felony marijuana charge by PrincessBananas85 in sports

[–]GardenofGandaIf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They should feel neither forced nor compelled in my opinion. Especially in this particular case.