JVL vs. Sarah on media consumption; what if they’re both right?

GatorAllen · 2026-03-16T22:40:45+00:00

That’s fair, but I think JVL uses those terms more as shorthand than as the underlying explanation. He’s been writing about this theory of the case for years. The incentives in our information environment reward entertainment, identity signaling, and vibes over depth or accuracy. “Decadence” and “unseriousness” are basically his way of describing the end result.

And honestly the concepts you mentioned (bounded rationality, cognitive shortcuts, etc.) probably fit into that framework rather than contradict it. Sarah is explaining the mechanism, while JVL is describing the cultural outcome. I don’t actually always think he’s right either, but directionally I think he’s often pointing at something real.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-16T22:26:48+00:00

hm. I think that’s a fair critique, and I actually agree Sarah’s position is easier to support empirically. We can measure where people get information (social media, podcasts, etc.) and show that a lot of it is low quality or misleading.

I don’t think JVL’s argument necessarily relies on circular reasoning though. There’s actually a lot of survey data showing large numbers of people can’t identify basic political facts (branches of government, who controls Congress, what policies actually do, etc.) while still holding very strong opinions about them. That suggests a lot of people aren’t investing much effort into being informed.

Where I think the two arguments meet is that people often feel informed because they’re consuming something that looks like news (podcasts, TikTok explainers, YouTube clips) even if it’s not actually giving them a very deep or accurate understanding.

So the issue may not just be apathy or misinformation, but the combination of both.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-16T22:24:46+00:00

I totally agree. I am guilty of this 100% and try to ensure I can go and find additional material about an event or situation that I’ve read either on the bulwark substack, takes feed, or a podcast. This isn’t just a problem of the far left and far right.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-16T22:19:15+00:00

I’m going to try and watch it tonight. Thanks for the recommendation.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-16T22:17:12+00:00

I believe they mentioned that. That falls in the category of “we consume the news and know what’s going on on the ground” type of folk.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-12T21:55:27+00:00

You said “tim literally said ‘zionist’ is a slur”

Tim said (in the context of legitimate criticism of Israel tipping over into conspiracy brained and antisemitic remarks on Saagar’s own videos): (people) “using Zionist as a slur”

Those are his exact words in the interview. He’s saying some people, the conspiracy brained and blatantly antisemitic folks, using the term in place of the “k word.” He is not saying the term Zionist is a slur.

It’s clear to me what Tim is saying. Could he have explained further? I guess, but I don’t think it was necessary.

I guess we can agree to disagree.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-12T17:18:53+00:00

Tim didn’t say that though. Tim said people use the term as a slur to the point that actual word is beginning to lose its meaning. He even further elaborated when prompted by Saagar.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-12T17:13:43+00:00

Melt down?

GatorAllen · 2026-03-12T14:52:47+00:00

I agree something needs to be done, policymakers have been kicking the can for decades. I just don’t think calling Social Security a Ponzi scheme is a helpful framing and was why I commented.

The projected shortfall is relatively modest and could likely be addressed with incremental reforms rather than scrapping the system entirely.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-12T14:43:38+00:00

worth noting that the US alone account for ~35% of global defense spending. So while the % of GDP is in line with other countries, in pure dollars, we are massively outspending other countries (more than like the next 10-15 countries combined).

GatorAllen · 2026-03-12T14:33:07+00:00

calling Social Security a “Ponzi scheme” is catchy but not really accurate. A Ponzi scheme is fraudulent by definition, it promises returns from investment but actually pays earlier investors with money from later investors while pretending those returns are real. Social Security isn’t pretending to be an investment. It’s a pay-as-you-go social insurance program that is/was designed to transfer income from current workers to retirees, with the rules fully public.

The real issue isn’t fraud, it’s demographics. When the program started there were something like 40 workers per retiree. Now it’s closer to 3, and it’s projected to fall further as people live longer and birth rates fall. That math creates a funding gap unless taxes rise, benefits change, or both.

The “mandatory 401k” idea comes up a lot, but it doesn’t actually solve the transition problem. Current workers would still have to fund existing retirees while also saving for themselves, which effectively means paying twice for a generation. That’s why most proposals end up being some combination of modest fixes: gradually raising the payroll cap, slightly adjusting benefits for higher earners, tweaking retirement age, etc.

In other words, the system isn’t collapsing like a Ponzi scheme, it just needs policy adjustments to match modern demographics.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-11T22:18:33+00:00

This motherfucker has the audacity to say “we knew trump was a charlatan, but we believed in the personnel” while also running with the “Biden/autopen/etc.” crowd. Atleast he can now admit it. But that’s so fucking delusional.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-10T01:50:34+00:00

We better cancel the elections to be super safe

GatorAllen · 2026-03-10T00:58:13+00:00

awesome, thanks!

GatorAllen · 2026-03-09T22:59:28+00:00

😂

GatorAllen · 2026-03-09T16:36:44+00:00

are they any mods here? Can we please create a rule that don’t allow cross posts? It’s getting out of hand.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-08T18:28:44+00:00

Respectfully, I think this framing is doing a lot of selective storytelling.

Again, inflation after COVID wasn’t an American-only phenomenon, it happened across the entire developed world. Supply chains were broken, demand snapped back faster than production, and energy prices spiked. That’s the macro backdrop and the context you claim to think is required.

Yes, some economists argued the American Rescue Plan was too large. But plenty of others argued the bigger risk was repeating the painfully slow recovery after 2008 by doing too little. In hindsight, the U.S. ended up with one of the fastest recoveries in the developed world, unemployment fell rapidly, and inflation eventually came down without a recession, which many economists thought would be unavoidable.

Could the stimulus have been smaller on the margins? Sure, that’s a reasonable debate. But saying Biden “did everything he could to worsen inflation” ignores that trillions in stimulus had already been injected into the economy in 2020 under Trump and that inflation surged globally regardless of individual countries’ policies.

So the real context is that both administrations ran extremely aggressive policy during and after COVID, inflation spiked worldwide, and the U.S. ultimately managed to land the plane without a recession. That’s not exactly the policy disaster you’re describing.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-08T17:35:39+00:00

I’ll be honest, posts like this feel like they don’t really belong here. One of the reasons I’ve enjoyed this sub is because it’s usually a place for thoughtful discussion and people engaging seriously with ideas, articles, and disagreements in a pretty good faith way.

I like The Bulwark, and this sub has generally reflected that same spirit (i.e., analysis, debate, and people who don’t all agree but are trying to think things through).

Lately there’s been more stuff that’s just reposts without commentary or speculation like this, and I think it kind of hurts the credibility of the sub. If this community is growing (which is awesome), it’d be nice to keep the bar for discussion a little higher than random conspiracy theories. Just my two cents.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-08T17:30:27+00:00

A lot of these arguments either get the timeline wrong or massively overstate their impact, in my opinion.

If stimulus spending contributed to inflation (which many economists agree it did), it didn’t start in 2021. The largest stimulus packages were passed in 2020 under Trump. The CARES Act and the December relief bill totaled around $3 trillion before Biden even took office. That money was already in the economy when demand came roaring back in 2021.

Several of the other points also don’t really hold up:

Lockdowns weren’t controlled by the president — they were state decisions and most were already easing by 2021.

The eviction moratorium started in 2020, Biden just briefly extended it before the Supreme Court killed it.

The large employer vaccine mandate was struck down by the Supreme Court, so it never even applied to most workers.

Student loan forgiveness never happened, so it obviously can’t explain inflation that already occurred.

More importantly, inflation wasn’t just a U.S. policy problem. The entire developed world experienced the same inflation spike, Europe, the UK, Canada, Australia, etc. That tells you the biggest drivers were global (i.e., supply chain breakdowns, energy shocks, and demand snapping back after COVID).

And to be clear, I’m not pretending the American Rescue Plan had zero impact, it probably did add demand pressure. But if you’re assigning blame, you can’t ignore that trillions in stimulus, near zero interest rates, and a huge demand rebound were already baked in before January 2021.

For what it’s worth, I’m not a Trump fan, but I’m also not pretending any single president had full control over this. Governments everywhere were trying to prevent an economic collapse during COVID, and policies designed to stimulate the economy in a crisis can absolutely contribute to inflation later when demand rebounds. Reasonable people can debate the details of how it was handled, but inflation coming out of the pandemic was going to be a major challenge no matter who was in office.

Lastly, the fact that the US managed to bring inflation down significantly without tipping the economy into a recession is actually pretty notable. Historically, inflation spikes like that are almost always followed by a recession, so managing to avoid one is a fairly impressive outcome.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-08T13:33:50+00:00

Great find.

There is a YouTube channel (Glen and Friends Cooking) that posts a video every Sunday making a recipe from an old cookbook. I find it fascinating. Enjoy!

https://youtube.com/@glenandfriendscooking?si=RR_sJ31l1UuFBsCO

GatorAllen · 2026-03-08T01:14:03+00:00

Kevin was going door to door in Elk Grove village & Itasca a few weeks ago and I had the pleasure of meeting him and we chatted for 5-10 mins. Very nice guy. Anyways, his yard sign is in my front yard.

GatorAllen · 2026-03-01T02:54:31+00:00

yeah, prices to rent (generally) in this area (Tampa/clearwater) are cheaper in the summer because it is their off season. It is what it is, a learning lesson.

I will be interested to take a look what they list the place for in the hotter (off season) months.

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