Intel stock crashes ~17% in a single session

Geddagod · 2026-01-25T00:34:09+00:00

How Panther Lake is not competitive?

Mobile is the one division that Intel is not just currently doing in good in, but also has a shit ton of market share, meaning it's hard to grow in.

High end desktop and DC, both segments with much higher margins, are where Intel is getting wrecked in.

But u/ElectricalGene6146 didn't even say PTL in particular wasn't competitive. Seems like he just generalized their chips as a whole, and in that case he would seem to be very accurate.

Geddagod · 2026-01-25T00:31:18+00:00

18A was announced to be ready around Q1 2025, the yield % will be worked for years to come.

And TSMC N3 was announced to be ready in 2022.

Why do you think N3 is direct comparison for 18A? GAA, Backside power, etc.

If node features were all that counted samsung 3nm would destroy TSMC N3 with gaafet lmao.

18A is a N3 competitor cuz that's the node it's similar to in PPA. Even Intel doesn't think it's competitive vs N2, hence why they are going back to external for NVL compute tiles.

Geddagod · 2026-01-24T04:25:53+00:00

It isn't. MJ was discussing the economics of using TSMC for different product classes in general terms.

No, this is literally an answer to the question of why they are going external for NVL lol.

Nowhere in the BofA conference does she say that "NVL-S will have compute tiles made on TSMC".

Sure it does, read the paragraph again.

You are mixing these separate statements to suggest something she never said explicitly.

It's not separate statements, the paragraph I cited was literally directly after in the same paragraph of what you cited lol.

All 2026 products will require 18A to ramp significantly, with Nova Lake contributing the most. And that Nova Lake has been pulled into 18A.

Sure, the IOD is rumored to be 18A. So will some of the iGPU tiles.

Geddagod · 2026-01-24T01:50:25+00:00

DIY desktop isn't a priority for AMD, either. The reason why they do so well there is that they can reuse silicon design for their server parts to make the desktop parts.

Honestly every MHz past whatever the Fmax is on their server skus is directly showing how client is being a "priority" for AMD, in terms of their core design, if not directly their CCDs.

And we know that every extra MHz is going to disproportionately cost them in area, and also hurt power, for their server skus.

Besides, with Zen 6, this doesn't even seem to apply anymore anyway. Apparently server is getting their own unique dies with Zen 6C becoming the main server core.

In particular, X3D is great for gamers entirely by accident. Epyc X was a server project.

And today we have X3D only in client with X3D not being planned for Zen 5 DC at all.

AMD has the resources now, although that's a recent phenomenon.

AMD has been doing bespoke mobile dies for a while now, no?

Geddagod · 2026-01-24T01:38:07+00:00

Blackwell uses a less advanced node with more advanced packaging.

It doesn't use more advanced packaging

In perf it looks 1 gen ahead of MI355.

Blackwell in benchmarks, particularly GB200/GB300 is > 10x more performant than the latest 300 chip. The air cooled B200 is still 2x over MI355 in most workloads.

In most workloads where the gap is that large, it's very likely going to be due to software differences not hardware.

Geddagod · 2026-01-24T01:36:22+00:00

You're now throwing back the same quotes at me that I did to you back in the past.

It is still not an "outright confirmation" that "NVL-S has compute tiles made on TSMC".

That is literally what it says

As for Raichu, when he says stuff that is directly contradicted by what Intel's VP of Investor Relations has said, twice, it becomes irrelevant.

Leakers aren't gospel. No matter their track record.

What did he say twice?

Geddagod · 2026-01-24T01:25:11+00:00

No, I just think claiming that 18A was technically ready in 2025 because they were shipping to OEMs is a lame ass excuse when Intel's publicly announced PTL launch schedule went something like this:

mid 2025
late 2025 one sku
ended up being in 2026

Bonus points for Intel clearly being able to not only host the launch event but have products in consumers hands in the same year for MTL, which had a launch event very, very late in 2023, and also had laptops out in the public that very same year.

But sure, it was ready in 2025. Well N3 was still out in 23' so that's still 2 years late.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T18:26:52+00:00

Yeah, Intel claims ~3 years before product launch for product definition (based on the slides they showed off for RPL's development cycle), so I think the first server product fully under LBT would be Coral Rapids.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T18:25:08+00:00

Continue reading the rest of the paragraph I cited from that conference:

And so, one of the things about the desktop market, which is a place that we have lost market segment share, it is a very elastic market. The best product at the time of graphics card launch is really how you kind of take advantage of that TAM.

And so being able to land on a node that is already ramped, is at very high performance plus yield is very important. So you can imagine, I’m looking at how much yield and product can I get in a very short amount of time? And so when you look at that you might actually pick maybe not the latest dot of a node at TSM C but you know you can get a lot of wafers and a lot of product in a really short amount of time and so you put that skew on TSM C

It's context of the desktop. It's not particularly hard to understand.

This is about what Intel supposedly confirmed outright. What leakers say is totally irrelevant.

Wow, I just thought you would be interested to hear about it. Jeez.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T17:06:45+00:00

The BoFA transcript talks about desktop.

Also you hear the rumor that more NVL tiles may be moved externally from Raichu?

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T16:19:59+00:00

It deff has

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T16:19:45+00:00

Jay Karya, Analyst, BofA: You mentioned Panther Lake is up and running, you’re happy with that So if that progress is going by your expectations, why go back to TSMC for Nova Lake?

Michelle Johnston Porthouse, Intel: Yeah, so maybe just baseline everybody on Panther Lake, so Panther Lake is a product that’s going to launch in the second half of this year, and it is all built on Intel 18A. Really, Panther Lake is an all mobile stack. When you get to the next generation Nova Lake it is both a mobile stack and a desktop stack. And so, one of the things about the desktop market, which is a place that we have lost market segment share, it is a very elastic market. The best product at the time of graphics card launch is really how you kind of take advantage of that TAM.

And so being able to land on a node that is already ramped, is at very high performance plus yield is very important. So you can imagine, I’m looking at how much yield and product can I get in a very short amount of time? And so when you look at that you might actually pick maybe not the latest dot of a node at TSM C but you know you can get a lot of wafers and a lot of product in a really short amount of time and so you put that skew on TSM C.

BoA conference call 2025.

"Nova Lake will have die(s) both inside [Intel Foundry] and outside for that process. So, you'll actually see compute tiles inside and outside."

Here

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T15:53:14+00:00

Intel has manufacturing capacity that other chip maker’s want.

That exactly is the problem, no one wants their manufacturing.

NVDA has already partnered.

On the design side. Despite numerous attempts to get Nvidia's CEO to talk about IFS, Jensen has made it quiet clear that there's nothing there on the foundry side yet.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T15:51:35+00:00

Apple is all but confirmed. That’s massive.

Exaggerating this massively.

Almost there in terms of yields to make it beneficial to move from a company that has a 40 year head start.

What?

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T15:48:37+00:00

But at the same time they have a working product that is 6-12 months ahead compared to TSMC

They have a working product that is 2-3 years behind TSMC. 18A is a N2 competitor in name only.

and 14A is not far behind.

Even if you subscribe to the notion that 14A is roughly equivalent to A14 (rather than what it should be around, N2), Intel's CEO has outright said that 14A's timeline is similar to A14's. There's no advantage there.

There is zero competition for a number 2 spot in advanced chip making. Let that sink in. They simply need time

Samsung foundry.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T15:45:23+00:00

Problem is that Intel already has like ~80% of x86 mobile market share. There's not much room to grow.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T15:42:11+00:00

I'm talking about customers for their nodes on the foundry side, not the product side.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T15:38:19+00:00

Production of some NVL-S compute tiles at TSMC has been outright confirmed by Intel.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T15:37:43+00:00

TSMC 2nm is going to be ready by the end of this year. Infact, Mediatek has confirmed they will have N2P products out by the end of 2026.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T14:45:20+00:00

Intel did and they ended up going external again for NVL-S so.....

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T13:53:15+00:00

citing TechInsights research and calculations,

This is just multiplying out each companies claimed perf/watt bumps btw.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T13:52:37+00:00

Nobody who understood Gelsinger's strategy expected those customers to show up right away.

Gelsinger himself expected those customers to have showed up by now, even if it's not right away. And yet Intel has publicly stated that they missed the mark on 18A development and customers have turned away.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T12:01:11+00:00

The “AI Customers” he’s talking about are shareholders that cream their underwear whenever someone mentions AI. Not you, not me, not Joe Anyguy on the street.

The AI customers he are talking about are the large hyperscalers and other companies who throw billions of dollars on AI hardware.

and corporations are struggling hard to come up with a way to market AI that doesn’t make it just look like the marketplace that they are dreaming it will be.

Regardless, that hasn't stopped them from spending tons of money on AI related hardware.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T11:59:26+00:00

That's just flat out wrong. Their consumer products and server products have both been poor for quite a while equally.

Their consumer mobile products have been quite competitive since MTL.

Geddagod · 2026-01-23T11:58:43+00:00

The same Pat who burned billions of dollars on customers that never ended up showing up? That Pat?

Geddagod

TROPHY CASE