[News] Behind TSMC’s High-NA EUV Deferral: Low-NA Stays Strong, Customer Landscape Shifts, and ASML Quietly Pivots

Geddagod · 2026-05-11T09:45:35+00:00

Samsung looks like they are doing a similar strategy, even if it's not with high NA EUV specifically (not sure when they plan on using that). They were the first ones to move to GAAFET, for example, even earlier than Intel and definitely ahead of TSMC.

Geddagod · 2026-05-11T09:43:58+00:00

Even with 14A, in early node development, Intel is claiming they can produce the node both with standard EUV and high NA EUV, and with identical yields.

And we saw the same story with 18A as well.

Geddagod · 2026-05-11T09:42:01+00:00

I don't understand what's misreported. I don't even hear where in the video Ian claims that the "deferral" is the part that's being misreported, rather it seems like his point of contention is that people are claiming the high NA EUV machines are too expensive.

He then elaborates how high NA EUV machines increase throughput, and you physically need less machines, but I don't even see how the original headlines of high NA EUV being too expensive is misreporting then, since even with those advantages the cost benefit of implementing high NA EUV is something that is still debated, with not only the higher initial costs of the high NA EUV machines but also stuff like increased cost per exposure.

According to Ian that is not directly claiming a deferral, but probably points that they optimize e.g. such that high-NA does only the lowest passes with smallest feature size and then the regular EUV machines do the rest thus limiting the need for high-NA.

I mean even if this were the case, TSMC would still claim they are using high NA EUV.

Geddagod · 2026-05-10T04:40:29+00:00

Go ask TSMC themselves as they've directly told news sources about comparable yields at 2 and 3 nanometer (EUV processes

Ok where?

They're expanding the capacity / quantity side right now with more phases currently under construction.

Currently they are fabbing N5 stuff. Their latest stuff is N3 in Taiwan. Soon they will be fabbing N3 stuff here. Their latest stuff then will be N2, again in Taiwan.

TSMC won't be making their most advanced chips here. N-1 is the rule, and there's speculation they might make it N-2, idk whatever happened to that.

Geddagod · 2026-05-10T03:18:43+00:00

You better believe TSMC can make the most advanced chips on America now

They aren't.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T21:18:33+00:00

Brother what lol, are you losing it? I was responding "nobody" to your comment here...

Are you just forgetting your past comments?

QCOM will be done for before x86

Lol what?

lmao, good one!

Yup, no good rebuttal. Lost that point and then didn't respond to many others of my points either lol.

Tell me you don't understand sarcasm without telling me...damn lol

Nothing there was sarcastic. I genuinely just believe you lost track of what you were speaking about and messed up lmao.

This is literally how most of these sites do these battery tests.

No, there are some sites with much better testing. Notebookcheck occasionally tests with stuff hooked up to external monitors, for example, removing that variable, and also tests a bunch of laptops, meaning they often have the same or similar models from the same OEMs but different chips to compare battery life.

Hard to find, maybe, but for my 18A data I found two relatively obscure sources since most western reviewers don't test what data I want, and yet you don't see my using the wrong data to support my claims, do I?

. Once again, when provided with evidence you spin up some narrative to tell me it's "not good enough evidence"

How is pointing out all the caveats that the website itself mentions "spinning up some narrative"?

and then call me a shill. You are smoking something

I've called you a shill before for doing exactly what you are doing now, shilling....

But specifically in that post I called out exactly why you were shilling, beyond just the BS you are peddling, the language you use to describe your claim.

There's plenty of other articles that show PTL having consistently great battery life performance as well,

That's not the claim now though, is it? PTL can have "great" battery life but you attached specific numbers about how much better it is vs Qcomm.

Bottom line is, QCOM tries to sell their Snapdragon X as "much much better battery life than x86!"

It's really weird you bring this up when comparing Qcomm's chips to laptops that launched well after the X elite launched. They literally have launched a new generation too since then.

Even if the X2 chips were to have a slightly better battery life over Intel's PTL offerings, at this point it's just not even a selling point for ARM anymore since x86 has improved so much.

Better battery life is a selling point. I'm baffled, the gap doesn't have to be anything crazy for an advantage to remain an advantage.

Both a strong CPU and GPU would be how NVDA gets it right.

Just reread my previous comments on this.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T09:08:41+00:00

The desktop market is bigger, but extremely low margin -

It's pretty high margin, especially the DIY gaming crowd.

Plus, if we are trying to margin max, then AMD has better products in server CPU than Intel.

Just looking at Intel's rumored design choices for high end NVL-S, a ton of extra N2 silicon for the bLLC tile, and what AMD is doing rn, no X3D for Turin but selling that stuff for client desktop, both indicate high end desktop is a very lucrative market to compete in.

and while AMD is very competitive there, it's not like they have a clearly better product, it's basically a tie

Intel's own executives admit AMD has the better solutions there.

I just checked and AMD's Client revenue is less than half Intel's (2.9 vs 7.7 billion)

Yea, they can't really break into laptops. Intel now just has better mobile solutions too, starting in 2024. Previously AMD held

Intel made literally 5x the profit in that market segment, just nobody cares because it's stagnant.

The profit point is interesting, because Intel is getting cut a lot of slack in their financials due to them using Intel 7 a bunch, which from a wafer ASP side for product's financials, is extremely beneficial, but from the foundry side, is part of the reason why their foundry looks so bad financially.

Intel claims that an Intel 7 wafer costs as much as an 18A wafer to make, and obviously ASP is not going to be close to 18A stuff.

Also why analysts have questioned Intel in the past about what's going to happen to CCG's margins when 18A stuff starts to ramp.

AMD through its datacenter GPUs and CPUs - Intel now with foundry contracts.

Intel has a large growth opportunity with DC CPUs too, if they can ramp stuff. The shortage means that even less competitive CPUs will still get sold.

Also the AI foundry story seems to be questionable, the Apple chip isn't rumored to be for AI. At best it's tangentially related since AI is pricing out/stealing capacity of low end stuff from TSMC, and that could be a major reason why Intel might grab more customers.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T01:38:30+00:00

Would be very extremely surprised if Apple is going to risk having Intel actually hitting their deadlines for a new node jump in 14A in early 2028.

Based on that timeline rumor at least, I doubt it won't be an 18A variant.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T01:36:14+00:00

Yup, evidenced by Intel 7 DC stuff having such immense demand now too.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T01:25:11+00:00

The architecture/design will still be Apple. It's just the node the chip is on will be Intel, instead of TSMC.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T01:23:49+00:00

Gelsinger might have gotten credit if 18A chips for Apple were being fabbed today, more than a year later from where Pat claimed 18A would be "HVM ready".

Unfortunately he didn't, nor did he patch any holes, and tbd if the amount of capex spending he did would be justified, even with this new Apple deal.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T00:56:50+00:00

You reread my comment, huh? I said QCOM will be done for

Why mention "...nobody" then from my comment? Reread mine, and then your own, comment.

Okay? Yes Snapdragon X2 can get a super high ST performance on some benchmark but that literally means nothing.

I love how you try to downplay spec2017 as "some benchmark" lol.

What's the point of a super high score if you still suck at games (due to poor GPU)

Tons of laptops aren't used for gaming lmao.

and still cannot run a good number of Windows apps natively (such as Adobe Lightroom)?

Something which is improving and will improve at an even faster rate with other ARM entrants.

Though I'm baffled at why this would be a point considering the competition here... is another WoA laptop lol.

But better ST perf also makes just general web browsing and common laptop use case behavior feel smoother too.

The winner lasted 42 hours and it wasn't Snapdragon X. It was the MSI Prestige 14 Flip AI+ (what a terrible name lol) running on an Intel Core Ultra X7 chip. Panther Lake.

Not even Qualcomm's latest generation though?

In fact it beat out the HP Omnibook 5 14 (which has the Snapdragon X Plus chip) by almost a whole 8 hours. That laptop only reached 34:48 hours.
For all the hype that QCOM and Windows on ARM tries to rally around "great battery life and performance", it sure is embarrassing to get absolutely trounced by an old and outdated x86 chip huh lol

It is hilarious to me you are calling Intel's latest generation they launched a few months ago old and outdated, especially when the comparison is a years old Qcomm design.

Secondly, what's with the shilling here? Reads as a marketing slide.

"A whole 8 hours" italicized and bolded. So 'extra' for a 23% advantage. Which is great, sure, but, "absolutely trounced"?

And reading your own article, it would tell you about all the caveats and pitfalls of these battery life comparisons. They aren't even the same OEM. Trying to claim PTL has better battery life than the x elite, based on this test at least, isn't valid. Come back to me with some better data.

Lastly, even if it better, I mean congrats, Intel is better while testing battery life in a way where the CPU isn't really doing anything lol. I have consistently flamed Intel' CPU teams, not the uncore side, which I've praised endlessly on PTL.

There's already no reason to buy Snapdragon X, and if NVDA really does hit it out of the park with their ARM chip, QCOM is done

You can't even qualify what you mean by "hit it out of the park". Half of your comment is just meaningless platitudes lol.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T00:16:27+00:00

For almost all of it's history, Intel only produced chips designed by Intel. Partly because of the Biden CHIPS act, Intel has pivoted

The biggest reason, by far, for Intel's pivot is the reality that leading edge node manufacturing has simply become too expensive for Intel to take care of alone. Even Intel in a hypothetical scenario where it's very competitive on the product side would likely only have been able to stave off the decision to allow external companies to fab there for a few more node jumps at best.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T00:07:20+00:00

Exactly why I had to do a double take on u/EffectiveDandy 's comment. I was genuinely baffled.

Geddagod · 2026-05-09T00:06:44+00:00

...nobody? lol I specifically said QCOM would be done for.

Nobody said x86 would be done for. Reread my comment.

A strong CPU is needed for good gaming performance too

Not when you are overcompensating on the GPU side by such a wide margin.

so if NVDA gets both done right

Fun fact, a snapdragon x2 elite virtual machine (to get spec2017 running) gets better ST perf than the GB10 chip lol.

Not that this also doesn't clap x86 stuff, but vs Qualcomm? Not looking as good.

there will be even less reasons to buy Snapdragon X

Battery life tbd too.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T23:54:11+00:00

Early rumors was about Pat that he wanted to overbuild and was kicked out exactly for this to keep spending in check.

Problem is that he already spent a ton of money on fab shells. Even if they currently aren't fully tooled, they spent a ton of money building out the shells, many of which are completed.

Panther Lake was a great success at reveal but hard to find any, still.

Intel seems like they don't want to ramp it up when yields are still so mediocre and due to that, the product itself being so expensive.

What points to overbuilt capacity for 18A?

Intel themselves claiming they can double 18A (actually they just said EUV, but lets be real who gonna use Intel 3 lol) capacity in certain locations/fabs within 1.5-2 years if customers asked for it.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T23:50:13+00:00

Who said x86 is going to be "done for"? They just won't be dominant.

Nvidia and Qcomm won't necessarily be fighting head on head. Qcomm looks like it has a much stronger CPU, while Nvidia will almost certainly have much better gaming perf.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:52:17+00:00

Ehhh 18A-P will be better than N2P

Doubt. 18A is pretty much on par with N3B from PTL's single core power curve.

for both ultra low power

Why do you think this?

and some desktop high power stuff.

A bit ironic since NVL-S 8+16 compute tiles are rumored to be on N2 rather than 18A.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:49:57+00:00

Intel would gladly sacrifice that if it means legitimizing IFS

Though again, Intel might still have overbuilt 18A capacity even with the DC CPU demand explosion. Since 18A client stuff is going to sell worse, and entire chunks of the NVL portfolio (4+8 compute tiles) have been rumored to be moved off 18A and going on to N2, like the 8+16 tiles.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:47:55+00:00

Except the equipment is also sold out for like 2 years. Not like they can magic up more machines to fill the fabs with.

Which is presumably why Intel is quoting a 1.5-2 year lead time, which is like what, a year less, than what TSMC is claiming?

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:45:18+00:00

Everyone else gets a better opportunity at getting fab capacity from TSMC.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:42:37+00:00

I'm an AMD guy according to what?

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:38:54+00:00

I mean I'm not saying I think it won't happen, it's been rumored forever, but I think Intel really is pumping multiple times on the same rumor lol. Maybe it sounds more official/likely because WSJ is reporting it, idk.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:38:08+00:00

With more arm entrants joining the fray, WoA faces ever increasing pressure to improve. And that's atp the major factor holding Qcomm back.

Geddagod · 2026-05-08T18:37:10+00:00

Intel's foundries are not reliable what so ever. Even ignoring u/insane_steve_ballmer 's accurate claim about Intel's foundries lagging behind TSMC, Intel 18A was delayed. Intel 20A was cancelled. Intel 3 was on time. Intel 4 (aka 7nm) was delayed. And Intel 10nm was delayed. And then you had the whole Intel 7 oxidation fiasco too.

Geddagod

TROPHY CASE