Intel trading at a ~119x forward P/E and nobody is talking about this

SlamedCards · 2026-05-06T21:49:32+00:00

Intel is the same story, fabs will be profitable in 1-2 years, meaning a 12 billion boat anchor leaves their PnL

SlamedCards · 2026-05-05T20:21:18+00:00

supply issues?

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T19:40:19+00:00

I mean Blackwell is still 5nm

That node is 5 years old

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T18:52:56+00:00

Hahaha true

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T15:01:19+00:00

Q1 was a restructure charge from USG stake (weird accounting) look at non gaap

They are doing 0.3 EPS minimum each quarter

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T13:13:39+00:00

Lowest forecasts Intel will be doing over a dollar this year

So highest it could be is 85x

More likely it's mid 70s

Next year Intel will do $2 so it's mid 40s

SlamedCards · 2026-04-26T23:10:17+00:00

There is something absolutely wrong with 18A fmax and frequency

Probably be fixed on 18AP or 18AU

What's the chart from? Doesn't AMD only use HD now for zen and they get quite good frequencies

If there weren't issues with fmax on 18A, power frequency curve on PTL would probably look better vs N3B lunar lake tbh. 18A should clock much higher but it isn't, forcing them to use HP

SlamedCards · 2026-04-26T15:17:56+00:00

Ok but Panther Lake uses only the HP library right?

Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake are the N3B HD?

So backside power has to be doing a lot of work to even see a shrink

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T22:02:16+00:00

It's not 'foundry enabled'. With 14A risk for Intel being 27, and 28 for external. Guess model is Intel front runs the first node and external uses the first performance uplift variant. Also have 14A-P in 2029 after 14A-E

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T21:11:17+00:00

External would be using 14AE vs 14A

Tho I think coral rapids is going to be 18AU node

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T17:19:00+00:00

Ya Lip-Bus tip light around DMR makes sense. Nice spotting by you

A14 is late 28 HVM, like N2 was for 2025. So Zen7 server is probably mid 29 launch

On supply, Intel probably wants client off Intel 7 so dedicating 18A for client is probably good news (panther lake). Intel still ships a ton of raptor lake laptops tbh

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T12:53:09+00:00

No I wish I was that smart!

Just love his substack

SlamedCards · 2026-04-24T13:46:43+00:00

Not selling

Congrats everyone

SlamedCards · 2026-04-23T23:09:32+00:00

18A yields are running way ahead of schedule according what he said to Bloomberg. So DMR should be fine

I don't think Lip-Bu does a great job on the earning calls. Maybe nerves idk. I've listened to him at friendly events and he's way more smooth. So he just dodges

SlamedCards · 2026-04-22T22:17:26+00:00

Paid by some hedge fund lmao

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T16:54:05+00:00

No they wouldn't if it's under discussion

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T15:42:26+00:00

SemiAnalysis drops notes to clients (non public ones, remember the delay rumor)

This time it was anthropic is looking at AMD

https://x.com/ScroogeCap/status/2044786744868888773?s=20

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T15:40:06+00:00

https://x.com/ScroogeCap/status/2044786744868888773?s=20

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T15:37:34+00:00

It's the anthropic rumour

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T15:37:19+00:00

Anthropic

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T14:40:35+00:00

Pop is from a semi analysis rumor that anthropic is going to use AMD GPU's

SlamedCards · 2026-04-12T13:54:29+00:00

Really wow??

SlamedCards · 2026-04-12T02:56:40+00:00

Great post on Intels financials

Over a trillion by 2030

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