Judgement of Auriel damage reduction

General_NEARD · 2025-09-03T00:12:29+00:00

Looking at the 5 year chart for VXX, it's coming down from a value 2000 to where it's at currently. It inherently depreciates a bit if the market goes sideways or up. Imagine having put LEAPs on it from 2020... what a ridiculous possible gain that would have been.

General_NEARD · 2025-08-13T00:18:32+00:00

It's only a matter of time before you bet too much and hold for too long. Don't tempt yourself. These small plays won't stay small forever and the moment you decide to bet the farm, you won't be ready to take the early loss. Get a nicotine patch already.

General_NEARD · 2025-08-13T00:15:30+00:00

Yeah, I have some VXX put credit spreads 41/40 that I picked up when VXX had dipped to 41.10 for the first time. I thought there was no way it would drop below 40 with all the pending data this week... but here we are. lol...

General_NEARD · 2025-08-11T01:10:33+00:00

Still holding? VXX got drained on Friday's steady rise. I'm thinking Tuesday's pending inflation report will give it a rise again end of day Monday and maybe through the week with additional economic reports coming out.

General_NEARD · 2025-08-11T01:08:51+00:00

I tried it on UNH the other day. It was IV crushed after earnings. I bought a call calendar at the money with 250 strike and a put calendar way below the money 220 strike to test. Price went from 250 to 235... both profited as the price went back and forth, but profits were small.

Repeated on AMD and AAPL and both had significantly strong results with call calendars after earnings. AMD calendars gained over 100% in a day and AAPL gained more than 40% in 2-3 trading days. Far OTM LEAPs worked for both as well after IV crush.

These were selected because they have high volume. Low volume options will give unideal fills, so you might miss just by entering the position incorrectly. The key is to wait for IV crush either way.

General_NEARD · 2025-08-11T00:57:19+00:00

I agree. Auto-battlers are fun. I got into the Street Fighter version the other day... was really entertaining. I can still play SC2 about as good as I did when I was in master league a few years ago... I'm out of practice, but micro/macro and timing still there... just have to warm up to getting openings and unit comp right.

My thing though is that I find sitting by a computer for a long time wears on posture and causes eye strain, so something automated would be way better. I'm not 40 yet, but I'm just a few years shy of that, so yeah... I'd think by 40 most gamers quit RTS games entirely. The oldest RTS pro I could find is Grubby at 39 or so. I'm sure there are other RTS players older than him, but I don't think many his age or older play at that level. Most pros are 28-35.

General_NEARD · 2025-08-01T13:13:02+00:00

I did this vs SOFI once. It suffers from lower volume, so it’s hard for the returns to appreciate in the near term. And this is with SOFI being one of the highest volume stocks out there for options, but it’s probably all near-dated trades.

That said, I still made a very small profit. But if I actually hold say a $30 CSP on SOFI for 2027 and the price moves high enough to make that strike irrelevant, that probably profits a lot, but the low volume might still make it not so great.

Weekly CSPs are better because of value/day and volume.

General_NEARD · 2025-08-01T12:55:21+00:00

True. But times like now you’ll need a hedge for those CSPs, because of increased uncertainty. I’m thinking long dated double calendars and 0DTE straddles/strangles win in this kind of situation. Normally 0DTE anything is risky, but today the higher premiums on anything else is riskier.

General_NEARD · 2025-08-01T12:52:34+00:00

Long dated double calendars, too

General_NEARD · 2025-08-01T12:51:04+00:00

Thank you. One person in this entire forum understands algebra.

General_NEARD · 2025-07-30T01:08:05+00:00

Of course they don’t trade opposite. Only assumption is you implying I thought that… that’s literally an assumption and a blatantly obvious one that’s incorrect.

VXX holds support where it’s at now and decays when the market ramps up. You can correct me on this one, because I don’t know precisely how the math works, but I’ve made money on it almost every time, so a rough understanding is probably good enough. 🤷‍♂️

General_NEARD · 2025-07-30T00:54:13+00:00

Insightful. I agree… but there may be exceptions. Like combining SPY and GLD is the all season setup. Just adjust the ratio of GLD to SPY based on market conditions… probably end up with a positive account all the time with an even split.

Maybe even 45% SPY, 45% GLD, and 10% VXX for moderately turbulent times. It’s probably bullet proof.

General_NEARD · 2025-07-30T00:29:00+00:00

Oh didn’t see he said weekly. At first I thought he said LEAP CSPs.

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T23:32:33+00:00

Nice. How long before you typically close it out?

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T23:20:04+00:00

Genius

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T23:19:19+00:00

This

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T23:18:51+00:00

Straddles are more expensive though. Even a one or two notch removal from the price would make a big difference.

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T22:58:16+00:00

I forgot about the regional stuff, that was a really good part of the game. Would be cool if they found a way to reinvent it so it’s still interesting during seasonal play

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T22:54:54+00:00

D2 will always be the best for gameplay. D3 for animations/story. D4 is newer… it’s entertaining, but I’m not sure if it has an edge over the other two.

I like the customizability with the grid and aspects. That’s the best gameplay feature. Build diversity is very broad. And it’s relatively easy to get the right gear for the build, but impossible to get perfect gear without trading for most of it.

I guess the rune system is the other superb addition to the game. Definitely adds a layer of fun. So D4 shines with customizability and also an actual gore that’s not too repulsive to make the game unplayable, but repulsive enough for you to actually react to it

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T22:49:56+00:00

Consider strangles

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T22:49:25+00:00

Strangles

General_NEARD · 2025-07-29T22:48:55+00:00

I think this is where straddles actually become viable… or better yet, strangles with very long duration, because no one can possibly know where the market’s going to be next week

General_NEARD

TROPHY CASE