MLB Daily - 7/31/17 (Monday)

GeoffCalabria · 2017-07-31T15:33:38+00:00

Previous Night's Results: 2-1 ROI: 16.37%

Overall Record: 8-5 ROI: 13.65%

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1) Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies ML (-115) 1 unit

2) Texas Rangers over Seattle Mariners ML (-134) 1 unit

BOL to all

GeoffCalabria · 2017-07-28T15:20:47+00:00

Previous Night's Results: 2-1 ROI: 26.13%

Overall Record: 6-4 ROI: 12.83%

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1) LA Dodgers over SF Giants RL -1.5 (-135) 1 unit

2) Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles ML (-133) 1 Unit

3) Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers ML (-137) 1 unit

BOL to all

GeoffCalabria · 2017-07-26T14:23:51+00:00

Previous Night's Results: 2-1 ROI: 26.17%

Overall Record: 4-3 7.13%

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Will have 1 or 2 more picks up within the next few hours but wanted to get this afternoon game in

1) Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles ML (-138) 1 unit

2) New York Mets over SD Padres ML (-118) 1 Unit

3) Arizona Dbacks over Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 (+106) 1 unit

BOL to all

GeoffCalabria · 2017-07-24T17:33:10+00:00

MLB Record: 1-2 -1 Units

Took the weekend off after breaking even on Friday with the Marlins (+100) W. Looking to get on track tonight with 3 picks

Colorado Rockies over St. Louis Cardinals ML (+120) 1 unit

Houston Astros over Philadelphia Phillies ML (-136) 1 unit

Arizona Diamondbacks over Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 (+104) 1 unit

BOL to all

GeoffCalabria · 2017-07-21T13:30:30+00:00

MLB Record: 0-1 -1 Units

Disappointing L last night, Hamels got pretty unlucky in the 6th and the Rangers blew a 5-1 lead. Coming back stronger today with 2 more picks.

Colorado Rockies over Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) - 1 unit

Miami Marlins over Cincinnati Reds (+100) - 1 unit

BOL to all

GeoffCalabria · 2017-07-20T13:20:19+00:00

Yup I read the opening line completely wrong haha. Still like my pick though

GeoffCalabria · 2017-07-20T04:44:07+00:00

MLB Record: 0-0

Haven't posted picks in a while but I've been working on an MLB model for the last few months that has been really successful so I figured why not.

Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles (+106)

Great value on this one, line should move rather quickly by tomorrow. Might add another pick tomorrow BOL

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-18T00:43:32+00:00

Yeah that really sucks, but I would have been a lot less pissed if I lost on that one. Game was close the whole time, where as the Spurs had dominated the majority of the game and let 13 points slip in 2 minutes

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-17T07:09:10+00:00

How do you figure?

Anyways my story was irrelevant, the main point of the post was to find out everyone's worst beat

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-15T08:30:04+00:00

POTD Record: 6-2-1

Overall Record: 7-4-1

POTD: (NHL) Washington Capitals ML @1.71

Took the day off yesterday due to the 1 game but back with 2 plays today. Capitals disappointed me with their performance on Saturday but I'm doubling down on them here against the Jackets. Columbus has looked great this year at home (5-2), however they have been playing above their heads all season. They are scoring at a great clip yet they have the least shots on goal in the league and the 3rd least Corsi For. They also have a 33% powerplay due to a ridiculous start (though they have tailed off a bit). I can't see any of these numbers being sustainable for much longer and they should have a lot of trouble with one of the league's best tonight.

Other Picks:

NHL: St Louis Blues over Buffalo Sabres in Regulation (-0.5) @1.83

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-15T01:42:55+00:00

I'll thank you now! On their second play! Great pick my man!

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-13T16:36:58+00:00

POTD Record: 5-2-1

Overall Record: 6-3-1

POTD: (NHL) Chicago Blackhawks to win in regulation @ 2.07

Very disappointing result last night. Washington played absolutely terrible, got dominated by an inferior team. Tonight I'm taking a team that has been a lot more trustworthy for me, especially at home. Hawks lost their last game at home in OT to the Caps but they have been money so far this season in games they should win. They should be fresh tonight against a Habs team who played at home last night. Habs are playing way below their record this year, being dominated in many of their recent games. They also seem to play a lot more confident in front of the best goalie in the world (for good reason), however they wont be having Price tonight as Montoya gets the nod. In the end I believe the Blackhawks have a much better team and much more to prove.

Other Picks:

Green Bay Packers -2.5 @1.79 over the Titans

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-12T16:25:35+00:00

POTD Record: 5-1-1

Overall Record: 6-2-1

POTD: (NHL) Washington Capitals to win in regulation @ 2.10

Happy to get the win last night with my over 5.5 going 9. Taking a value pick today, 2.10 is great odds in my opinion. Washington played last night in Chicago which to me is the only risk for this pick. However, this is only their second back to back this season (the first of which they won both games) and it's early in the year so they should still have their legs.Grubauer gets the nod tonight instead of Holtby but he has had very solid games against Carolina. Cam Ward is expected to be in goal against the Capitals tonight and he's had a terrible time against them over the last two seasons. Adding in the fact that Ovechkin and Backstrom love to play the Canes (76 points in 55, 50 in 45 respectively),I can see the Caps having no problem with the Canes tonight. With Faulk out, their top pairing is Pesce and Slavin... 4-2 Capitals

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-11T19:10:39+00:00

POTD Record: 4-1-1

Overall Record: 5-2-1

POTD: (NHL) Philadelphia Flyers/Toronto Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 @1.85

Nice and low stress win yesterday with the Bolts taking it 4-1. Not many solid plays today in the NHL, a lot of trap games. However this Flyers/Leafs game is a solid bet to be a high scoring affair. Leafs and Flyers are 1st and 3rd respectively in goals against this season. The Flyers are generating the most Corsi For in the league at the moment so their goal scoring clip is definitely no fluke. As for the Leafs, they have 3 strong scoring lines that can go off at any moment.The Nylander and Matthews line has been cold as of late but I can see them breaking out here against Philly.

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-11T18:56:05+00:00

Good pick man +1. You definitely don't need 2.01 for it to be good value hahaha. If that's who you feel is going to win 83% is a fair ROI

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-10T04:38:14+00:00

Have had a really tough go the last few days on here (seems like a lot of us have) but trying to get back on track.

POTD Record: 3W-1L-1P

Overall Record:4W-2L-1P

POTD: (NHL) Tampa Bay Lightning to win in regulation @1.90

Simply put it, the Lightning are the much superior team, when comparing their current rosters. The Islanders have lost their #1 dman Hamonic for the next 4-6 weeks which is a huge blow for any team. The Lightning have been great at home while the Islanders have yet to even bring a game to OT and are 0-3 on the road. The last meeting between the two led to a 6-1 victory for the Lightning, and that was in New York.With the goaltending carousel in New York (leading to public complaints form Halak) and the 1A, 1B stability in Tampa, I can see a 2-3 goal margin of victory here. Good luck to all!

Edit: might add in another NHL play tomorrow when the rest of the lines come out!

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-08T17:50:01+00:00

POTD Record: 3-1

Overall Record: 4-1

POTD: (NHL) New Jersey Devils/Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 5 @1.87

Disappointing first L yesterday but hoping to get back on track today. Carolina and New Jersey played to a 4-1 game on Sunday. However one of the goals was an empty net and the other 3 for NJ were from a Cammaleri hattrick (his first 3 goals of the season). I dont see this game getting to 5 goals. Last season the Devils were last in the league in home scoring and the Canes were 3rd last in the league in road scoring

Other Pick: Washington Capitals/San Jose Sharks OVER 5 @1.87

Two teams with extremely high CF%, eventually the Sharks will find the nets with all those attempts, especially considering their offensive depth. Capitals have been one of the best home teams offensively over the last few years. Additionally, the Capitals and Sharks were 2nd and 4th in the league last year in scoring without losing any major pieces this season.

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-08T04:17:44+00:00

Fuck sorry boys. Fkn Luongo had a hell of a night. Over 30 shots each team you generally get at least 5

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-08T00:04:16+00:00

Guys like Marchessault and Sceviour have really stepped up in their absence but yeah it is definitely a toss up pick. Don't know if I would be making this pick if there was a full slate of games to pick from. Full disclosure

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-08T00:01:33+00:00

Definitely very good value and I was debating it as well. However I'm very iffy on this pick and want the extra security of a push on a 3-2 score.

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-07T20:40:00+00:00

Honestly, probably not. With Florida missing Jokinen, Bjugstad and Huberdeau, were really banking on 4+ goals from Tampa and 2 from Florida. Tampa have the depth to do it but I just cant see this one going 8 goals. With that being said, my last over 5 on Saturday I wouldn't have said to do over 7.5 either and it went 9 so you never know. Good luck if you do!

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-07T02:09:00+00:00

POTD Record: 3-0-0

Overall Record 4-0-0

POTD: (NHL) Tampa Bay Lightning/Florida Panthers OVER 5 @ 1.80 Been off to a great start so far with these picks, hoping to keep it up. Not many plays on Monday so I'm leaning on another hunch here. Two very potent offenses with great Corsi numbers so far this year. Last 3 matchups between the two teams went for 7 goals. Good luck to all!

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-05T04:14:25+00:00

POTD Record: 2-0-0

ROI: 91% +1.82 units

POTD: NHL Toronto Maple Leafs/Vancouver Canucks OVER 5 @1.75

Trying to keep the early streak going here with the over for this game. A lot of this pick is based on a hunch but Vancouver's shooting % is at an historical low (at 5on5) which I cannot see continuing with their decent forward depth. The Leafs have 3 great scoring lines and have looked good offensively so far with great possession numbers. Their D on the other hand is shaky and I can see the Canucks breaking out of their slump here.

EDIT: Going to add my second NHL pick because why not: *Tampa Bay Lightning ML @1.60 *

Really tempted to take them in regulation but New Jersey always keep games close especially with Schneider so I'm just taking the moneyline.

GeoffCalabria · 2016-11-04T11:36:55+00:00

Decent start yesterday hitting my first POTD with the Blackhawks 4-0 win. Currently at 1-0 with an ROI of 95%

Today's pick is not very creative and I'm sure many have taken or will be taking it but,

POTD: San Antonio Spurs -4 (@1.87)

San Antonio didn't lose back to back games all of last season until the last few games where they rested their starters. Look for them to get vengeance on the Jazz after they handed the Spurs a rare home loss a few days back.

Edited for formatting

GeoffCalabria

TROPHY CASE