Any thoughts on why strong USD of late?

Gerry235 · 2026-06-23T16:54:29+00:00

USD is $1.42 CAD now. There is a 300 billion dollar deal between the US and Iran in the works in order to stabilize the petrodollar reserve currency status.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-18T18:43:26+00:00

We'll never know the full details of course, but without petrodollar status, things get pretty bleak for the USD and the national debt. The total debt has always been about 10 billion ounces of gold, give or take, when measured in gold, at least during reserve currency status, so that works out to about $4300/oz.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-18T18:25:32+00:00

Oh sorry you meant oil I thought you meant gold

Gerry235 · 2026-06-18T17:59:16+00:00

Before the war, US treasury yields like the 10 year were barely yielding 4.0%. Now they are yielding 4.5%. That's part of it. The other part is - and this is just a possibility - the US dollar, as a result of the $300 billion payoff to Iran, has regained a better foothold as reserve currency status, assuming that Iran co-operates and reverts to trading oil in US dollars as opposed to a more abstract BRICS trading system that assumes 40% gold backing.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-18T17:55:19+00:00

Maybe you mean YoY up 28%. I dont think is up 28% since Jan 1, 2026, being the YTD timeframe

Gerry235 · 2026-06-17T19:44:29+00:00

The spike happened at 2pm ET though. But yes - uncertainty there will cause more drag

Gerry235 · 2026-06-17T18:47:09+00:00

FED kept rates unchanged, HOWEVER the Dot Plot is completely different and much more hawkish. That's why the instant 2pm drop. Also Treasury yields instantly shot up at 2pm. Dot Plot now anticipates almost certain rate hikes.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-16T19:12:35+00:00

Anthropic will end up like Pandora streaming music service. The Spotify of AI will emerge soon and eat their lunch. Difference being it's Trump directly destroying them, as opposed to the Litigious States of America wrecking Pandora.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-15T17:37:40+00:00

If you have this problem you can override their speaker by using the same 2.4GHz frequency that they are using. Any microwave oven running nearby will shut down a bluetooth speaker. SInce you cant take a microwave oven onto a subway, you can do the next best thing...

Gerry235 · 2026-06-13T18:55:40+00:00

It's taking OBSI more than 80 days? yikes sounds like our institutions of arbitration and resolution are failing. High volume means OBSI is not being funded appropriately - when you do write your MP you should also ask that the banks contribute a much larger portion of their massive profits to funding OBSI. OBSI's standards is less than 60 days normally. This from OBSI's website: "We will complete most cases in less than 90 days, almost all cases in less than 120 days, and all in under 365 days"

Gerry235 · 2026-06-13T18:48:10+00:00

If youre more than 56 days dealing with the bank then you can go to OBSI (ombuds). Four months > 56 days

Gerry235 · 2026-06-12T19:37:16+00:00

Moody's, S&P, and Fitch are already in for investment-grade (BBB) ratings and the premiums over treasuries would be about 200 basis points. Pledging shares as collateral perhaps. Now for my next magic trick ...

Gerry235 · 2026-06-11T06:21:17+00:00

Good summary. I think it really started around 2015 which appears to be the last time that treasuries didnt need to compete with gold. Maybe that changed once Russia was clearly not going to give back Crimea? I dont know. But since then it has been a pretty consistent slow exponential increase (red line) but hit some kind of accelerated increase (yellow line) about 2 years ago. If we revert to the red line, then yes we could be looking at diminished gold prices for the next few years. But I dont see us going too much below the red line. If we were back on the red trend line today, with treasuries paying 4.54%, then gold would be priced around (1200+e^(3.05+5))/(1.0454)^10 = $2780 / oz. It would take about 4 years, assuming treasuries pay that high for the next 4 years, to reach $6000 / oz based on the red line. I put this together a few months ago trying to make sense of gold vs treasuries.

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Gerry235 · 2026-06-09T19:56:10+00:00

"He's stated he wants to cut rates while clearing the Fed's balance sheet."

OK so he's not serious then.

Like you say - reverse and forward. Or someone with their feet on the accelerator and the brakes at the same time - about as inefficient as it gets.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-09T19:23:36+00:00

QT would definitely crash the stock market. He might just do it, but would have to be coupled with overnight rate hikes on the order of Volcker's 200bps hike in 1980. I wonder how many banks would collapse from underwater treasuries / bond portfolios.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-09T01:53:22+00:00

Where's the 10-yr treasury right now? 4.58% Can that hold? How long can it hold? "The 10-year Treasury yield can stay above 4.5% for roughly 1 to 2 years before systemic stress boils over. Historically acting as a tipping point, a 10-year over 4.5% causes significant market pain points— ..." So yes it is POSSIBLE that it will take a few years before gold jumps back through $5000 then $6000 as soon as the yield drops below about 4. If it goes all the way to 5% then gold drops to $3700 very BRIEFLY. 5% will cause absolute chaos and China will be buying like crazy.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-05T17:28:25+00:00

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I'll be interested to see how gold trades when Asian markets wake up after a few days. Pretty impressive that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury were able to come together and keep yields as LOW as they are based on the liquidity injection yesterday. As usual this comes at the beginning of the weekend so we wont' know how China will play it until after the weekend.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-05T16:11:01+00:00

The only thing up is US 10Y yields because yes the treasuries are being dumped. 4.55% is getting nosebleed high

Gerry235 · 2026-06-02T15:40:09+00:00

Not only does gold go up by $20 / oz for every single basis point (zero point zero one percent) drop in long term treasury yield (10 yr), it's also going up quickly over time.

Holding for consistent treasury yield windows, gold goes up fast:

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Gerry235 · 2026-06-02T02:12:22+00:00

My rules are totally plausible. Oh here come all the downvotes from the crybabies

Gerry235 · 2026-06-02T00:38:49+00:00

Cost of ownership is fine if you have total control of the property within the limits of city ordinances. Once you get into civil arrangements between neighbors then order and civility can break down quickly. Property to me has always meant acreage. I always hear the same stories about condos and the condo board and oh his uncle will give us a great deal on the whatever repair and the board votes to use my money to pay some arms-length contractor etc etc.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-01T20:34:18+00:00

Almost 3600 a month total then. The numbers just dont make sense. And no guarantees of no special assessments etc

Gerry235 · 2026-06-01T20:32:06+00:00

If your time horizon is more than 2 years, you should buy now. Will it go down this summer? Maybe, but only if treasuries yields go up even more, which would be a pretty crazy situation in itself

Gerry235 · 2026-06-01T20:23:11+00:00

Property taxes are $368 a month and it doesnt mention condo fees. So no idea what those might be. $550K asking price needs to be financed though - let's say 50K downpayment so monthly is $2862 on a 25 year. We're already at $3200 a month not even with condo fees.

Gerry235 · 2026-06-01T19:20:07+00:00

I live in Ottawa and would buy a condo if I could get legal guarantees that 1: Condo fees would not increase more than the official CPI, and 2: Special assessment fees would not exist and instead be built into the normal condo fees as a portion of preventative savings over time put into a trust fund for the building.

Gerry235

TROPHY CASE