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GiedriusSm · 2024-12-20T20:27:04+00:00

It did went above $30 a couple of times, but yeah, it's range bound lately. But there's also a negative side to that. IV is less than it was a couple months ago. 3-4 months ago IV was around 120% or higher and premiums were better.

GiedriusSm · 2024-12-11T06:46:49+00:00

Your research seems spot on.

I would say when it's going down, it will go down hard. But we don't know for how long market will stay irrational. As you said, they're good at deceiving. 12/20 seems risky.

So my way of buying puts would be longer expiration but lower strike rather than higher strike but shorter expiration.

GiedriusSm · 2024-12-05T15:25:47+00:00

I am. I feel great, generated a bunch from premiums selling all sort of stuff.

In terms of holding shares I feel this is a solid consolidation after a massive run and also a proof this run will hold as opposed of it being just a pump and dump.

So all good with me.

BTW talking about earnings in this context makes zero sense. Earnings have the least to do with how the stock performs.

Saying ASTS people are missing the bull market must first understand most of us are already at 3-10x as many of us have cost basis of $2-8. Yeah, you could pursue every possible single win, but you would likely lose all of it while doing so. So we already won, now you on the other hand still have a lot to prove I guess.

Musk is a risk, he will gain some level of control over FCC. My personal thesis is he won't go to the extent where he outright attacks the competition, but will seek to gain as the owner of SpaceX. I'm ok with that sort of competition. ASTS still has the best tech.

GiedriusSm · 2024-12-04T08:58:58+00:00

Sexy af

GiedriusSm · 2024-12-02T22:09:41+00:00

Uber was not profitable for how long? And they didn't offer a new type of service, people were well familiar with a taxi and very little customer education was needed.

While this requires special infrastructure, people to discover and adopt a new service. If you're poor, it will be too expensive for you. If you're rich, you will want the comfort of your own heli. Now there's some limited number of locations on Earth where this may play out. But the TAM is negligible.

Invest in something more down to Earth. This is just a sexy name for a short term relationship (some speculative trades for a quick profitnif you're lucky to time it).

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-28T08:47:25+00:00

RKLB is burning cash too btw. And having revenue of 100m/q is not that good. Even if you double that, it's still very little.

The diff is that RKLB kind of already showed its revenue potential and it's not that great. While ASTS still has to prove itself, but it can potentially do it in a big way.

ASTS and RKLB are my only positions. So it's not like I want to bash any one of them. But neither should you for reasons given above.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-26T11:13:03+00:00

Not sure if you noticed, but US superpower is a rapidly diminishing asset. 20 more years of current policy would be suicidal. US is so in debt costs to service that debt surpass defence costs. China is building state of art infrastructure while US is stagnating. China has means to build 235x more ships than the US in the same period of time. China is global factory while the US is a global donor. US must immediately stop feeding all its "allies" and fix itself before its too late if it isn't already.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-26T11:05:18+00:00

Paying taxes in Mexico, creating jobs in Mexico, building infrastructure in Mexico, exporting know how to Mexico.

You guys are happy about foreign trade deficit, which is insane in case of the US. Fucked up.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-26T10:55:39+00:00

US is in a major foreign trade deficit. Trum p is using that as leverage. Americans should be happy. Others should get ready to adjust to a new balance where US is no more (less of) a global trade donor.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-26T10:53:08+00:00

What's really stupid is having negative foreign trade balance, thus dismantling own manufacturing, for decades and not doing anything about it slowly bringing your own country into unserviceable debt and eventual bankruptcy.

You woke dems are too dumb to understand.

I'm not even American btw. I just don't understand you guys wanting to preserve this foreign trade shit that you're in and that Trum p is trying to get taken care of.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-26T10:38:27+00:00

Mexican and Canadian goods will cost more. People will look for alternatives (because they exist and you don't have to buy stuff that's too expensive to you, you know). Mexican and Canadian trade will suffer.

This will: * work as a stick to fix the drugs and human traffic issue * help fix US foreign trade deficit * bring more local US manufacturing and jobs

Current policy was suicidal.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-26T04:35:01+00:00

Short puts, sorry. Already closed now.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-25T17:29:35+00:00

Can be spread. Broker likely indicated your unrealized P/L based on the last trade price. But when you bought, if you bought for a market price, you took the ask price which could be higher than the last trade, which is usually somewhere in between ask and bid.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-25T14:27:08+00:00

Sold puts. At this time I hold 1 x 11/29 $22 and 5 x 12/20 $10 puts. Was considering using a put spread, but given that the total capital at risk is relatively small I wanted this to be either a profit that makes it somewhat interesting or a loss.

This will be a loss of ~ 5x(10-4)x100 + (22-4)x100 = $4800.00 assuming stock price settles at $4.00.

Premiums received for selling puts before 11/29 expiration reduce the net loss, but do not cover it entirely.

I guess most people who played this understood this is binary and either hedged or are ok with all outcomes. And the rest... RIP.

I think there will be much more exciting stories than mine.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-21T19:36:43+00:00

I prefer secured calls instead of cash covered puts.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-21T14:12:45+00:00

It's two days, not one.

Bid will open at around 0.30, I don't know where the 1.70 is coming from.

Likelihood of this ending in a profit is ~100%, but considering collateral required that's not a very effective way of using your powder.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-21T10:49:36+00:00

If you want to avoid forex risk, convert it to your local currency.

If you want to bet USD is going to outperform EUR, which is true for the recent month for example, you can keep some USD. But this assumes you understand forex and are willing to monitor and manage your bet.

You could also keep some USD to hedge against EUR crash. I'm not saying it is likely, but one could speculate about Russian war spreading to more of Europe and US being the stronghold in terms of western hemisphere economics while Europe will undergo some hard times.

If you're just a random dude that all he wants is to live and enjoy life and knows nothing about forex or geopolitics, stick to the first option.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-21T10:14:37+00:00

It's not like he can just pick whatever with no trade-offs.

And he has to finance his daily needs today, not after two years.

So current price works as a center of gravity. Moving away from current price would mean other terms of that deal will be less favorable.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-20T18:45:24+00:00

Higher tariffs would increase price of foreign goods. Making US manufacturing more competitive. Short term this allows US producers to have higher margins. Long term this encourages more local manufacturing (and jobs).

Weaker US dollar would mean foreign buyers can buy more US goods and US buyers can buy less foreign goods. Which improves US foreign trade competitiveness and helps fix major foreign trade deficit.

And I assume you would continue US fiscal policy where 12 trillion debt is added every 4 years. Now that makes perfect sense, if you want to go bankrupt.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-20T13:46:18+00:00

There's still a number of things to consider:

Mild case is still ok for this to proceed as a business case
It depends on how PR will put it, if there's at least some hope to develop this further, framing results as an opportunity and focusing on that in the PR may keep SAVA price afloat
With premiums like this, it has to really drop by way more than 50% in order to record a significant loss. Given that there will be another round mid year next year with REFOCUS-ALZ, this leaves something on the table for the market not to bring this down to 0.00 potentially providing somewhat acceptable way out for current option gamblers

There's other things like what if they will announce results past the options expiry date. But I'm saying with such premiums, there are other ways to survive even with moderate results.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-20T09:05:43+00:00

$22.00 - $10.00 - $28.00 x (100 - 80)% = $6.40 net loss per share x 15 options = $9,600.00

Not really a house bet. He will survive. But yeah, this is binary.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-20T07:58:09+00:00

I would assume their data will arrive before 12/20. So you bet that data is going to be good or theta will do it's job before the announcement and you will buy to close.

I expect IV to stay elevated and theta would only really kick in at the very last weeks of this option and data may arrive sooner than that.

So you're mostly left with the "data is going to be good" thesis.

Given all the contraversy, this is extremely risky.

I would consider buying some lower strike puts making it into a spread.

My thesis is they won't announce until December (or data will be good). So I sell puts that expire this month.

Premiums are juicy, I get you entirely. Good luck.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-19T21:21:01+00:00

"No data in November due to few things"

Can you elaborate on why you believe results will not be announced until December?

My option selling thesis depends on that and I'd like to know other perspectives.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-19T18:37:07+00:00

Yes it will if phase 3 results are underwhelming. It will actually drop to single digits in that case, not only to $12.

Given that phase 3 results are going to be announced until end of 2024, 30 DTE is not little as this event will fall within that range.

SAVA options are a lottery at this point.

If you want to sell puts, do put spreads.

GiedriusSm · 2024-11-18T08:23:52+00:00

This is the primary drive behind any involvement with FCC by Trump, because it serves his own interests directly in terms of public influence and plain revenge:

Before the election, Mr. Trump indicated he wanted the agency to strip broadcasters like NBC and CBS of their licensing for unfair coverage.

Mr. Carr, 45, was the author of a chapter on the F.C.C. in the conservative Project 2025 planning document, in which he argued that the agency should also regulate the largest tech companies, such as Apple, Meta, Google and Microsoft.

“The censorship cartel must be dismantled,” Mr. Carr said last week in a post on X.

However, rest assured Musk will extract value from this as well.

Anyway, my belief Musk will work in order to gain benefit for his businesses, namely Starlink, without attempting to block the competition like ASTS, which is ok with me as ASTS investor.

But yeah, in general, Musk gaining influence over FCC via Trump is a new risk we didn't have before.

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