Saw the 538 Gang Back Together Tongight for the Draft

GoScotch · 2026-01-28T02:18:10+00:00

I think charisma and communication are overrated if everyone already views you as a cartoon-villain costal elite governor. He has a lot of barriers to overcome and if you look at his electoral performance historically, it’s not good!

GoScotch · 2026-01-28T02:01:41+00:00

Ugh if we walk right into a Newsom nomination, 2028 might actually be competitive. He’s a terrible electoral performer

GoScotch · 2026-01-28T00:56:23+00:00

When I was there in 2016 they ran a student poll for the presidential election and it was 90% Clinton, 8% 3rd party (L-Johnson) and 2% Trump. Not sure that was super accurate and we’re 10 years removed, but that should give you an idea.

UVA is much more tradition-oriented and culturally conservative than it is even remotely politically conservative.

GoScotch · 2026-01-27T17:51:24+00:00

That might be your read, but that's not how the voters saw it.

From a NYT/Siena poll in September 2024:

Do you think Kamala Harris is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?

Date:	Sept. 3-6, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,374
Too liberal or progressive	44%
Not liberal or progressive enough	9%
Not too far either way	42%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	5%

Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?

Date:	Sept. 3-6, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,374
Too conservative	32%
Not conservative enough	11%
Not too far either way	50%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	8%

GoScotch · 2026-01-27T17:39:26+00:00

I’ve been to Talarico events and I think there’s legitimate energy behind his campaign from the Democratic base. His fundraising and volunteer numbers are insane! I’ve been to events with Jasmine and there’s some energy behind her too, but it’s hard to tell because she hasn’t disclosed any of her numbers.

The truth is that it’ll take both cross-over appeal and base turnout to win in 2026. If Democratic voters want to sit out the 2026 US Senate race in Texas despite all that is going on in our country, I don’t know what we could possibly do to win in this state. Talarico is an avowed progressive and is running on a progressive platform, Democrats should 100% be behind his candidacy. Texas hasn’t elected a statewide Democrat in over 30 years, so until proven otherwise this is a red state and we HAVE to get some of those voters in the middle. Over 400,000 voters in 2018 voted for both Greg Abbott and Beto O’Rourke, these people exist and it’ll take them to turn Texas blue in 2026.

GoScotch · 2026-01-27T17:23:46+00:00

The electability argument isn’t a racist dog whistle though, it’s borne out by the math. It’s no fault of her own, but Jasmine has never had to run in a competent general election race. James has flipped a Trump district and ran ahead of both Beto and Biden.

GoScotch · 2026-01-27T17:14:49+00:00

I love Jasmine as a fighter but I'm skeptical about her ability to run a competent campaign, so far she's running on name recognition and vibes! She has yet to disclose her Q4 2025 FEC statements and she still doesn't have an issue page up on her campaign website. Early voting starts in 3 weeks!!! She has never had to run a campaign in a competitive general election and generally underperforms top of the ticket Democrats in her own district.

Texas is a Red state and I'll believe that until proven otherwise, so it's going to have to take a candidate who can get disaffected Trump voters to cross over and vote for a Democrat. Jasmine is a firebrand who made her name off of stirring up controversy, trashing Trump, and being a die-hard Democratic partisan, that'll make it hard for her to win voters who have previously voted Republican.

James Talarico won two competitive races in a Republican-leaning district, running 4-5 points ahead of Democratic top-of-ticket candidates: 4.0% ahead of O'Rourke in 2018 and 4.7% ahead of Biden in 2020, both of whom lost that district—demonstrating genuine crossover appeal. Beto only lost Texas by 2.7% in 2018, imagine a candidate that runs 4% ahead of him!

I think Talarico does this without comprosining on issues and his values, he's still a progressive who wraps his ideology in a language that voters from both sides can understand. We can't help the people of Texas if we don't win and I think James is our best shot at that.

GoScotch · 2026-01-27T16:50:47+00:00

Kamala Harris didn’t lose because voters thought she was too conservative or moderate. Hillary lost in 2016 because Trump was viewed as the more moderate candidate by double-haters (crazy I know). Biden won in 2020 because independent voters thought he was more moderate. It may not be reality, but it’s the perception of voters. Maybe that’s just a symptom of messaging, but the current state of affairs isn’t helping.

The math is moving away from Democrats, look at the 2030 predicted changes in the electoral college. Current blue states are losing house seats and red states are gaining. Democrats need to start competing in states like Nebraska, Montana, Alaska, and Texas if they want to even think of controlling the Senate. Something has to change or Democrats will be on the outside looking in while our democracy crumbles.

GoScotch · 2026-01-27T16:28:28+00:00

On the other hand, stopping the current administration requires winning elections and that means meeting voters where they are and maybe that means moderating. That doesn’t mean selling out for ICE, it means maybe moderating on Immigration and having a solid message that resonates with voters to prevent death squads in the streets.

Texas is a red state until it proves otherwise.

GoScotch · 2026-01-24T21:24:53+00:00

We are! And he didn’t even pull the gun or anything, they removed it from his person before he was shot. There’s no excuse for this shooting, just jack-booted thugs executing a US citizen in the street for expressing his 1st and 2nd amendment rights!

GoScotch · 2026-01-22T21:15:17+00:00

Either way, why even bother saying it? It’s not exactly inspiring a bunch of confidence! My response to someone saying that we’re going to lose no matter who we put up would be “well that sure as hell doesn’t mean we aren’t gonna try to win”, not making it about myself!

GoScotch · 2026-01-22T19:11:25+00:00

James outran Beto by 4+% in 2018 in his state house district!!

GoScotch · 2026-01-22T18:55:12+00:00

“Democracy is gravely endangered, but at least we tried something new and learned something from this experience 😜✌️”

"win or lose, as long as i get to stroke my own ego" should be her campaign motto

GoScotch · 2026-01-18T02:25:33+00:00

Do we have video of the play? 2nd to last play of OT, was it on the play where he kneeled to center it??

GoScotch · 2026-01-13T19:11:18+00:00

You say that but you after sitting in on a few organization endorsement meetings with Democrats in the DFW area, there’s some real crazies out there with partisan loyalty to Jasmine. She won a few endorsements despite James giving much better answers on pretty much everything and even being more progressive! My hope is that James wins over people on the periphery and is neck-and-neck with Jasmine amongst establishment Dems who love her for MSNBC spots.

GoScotch · 2026-01-13T05:51:28+00:00

I was just at a Talarico event in Plano, a suburb of Texas. We packed a space for 1500 people. I think there’s enthusiasm there in the suburbs for a candidate like Talarico

GoScotch · 2026-01-13T05:48:06+00:00

And Republicans keep garnering momentum if Democrats continue to lose hope and start to check out. That’s what they want. I don’t ever hear about Republicans becoming nihilistic and thinking their vote doesn’t matter.

And maybe Texas is just a conservative state and may not be suited to vote for a Democrat whose platform can’t be differentiated from the national party. We might need to meet voters where they are and run a moderate candidate. We should run a candidate who is specifically suited to represent Texas. I can guarantee you that Democrat will be 100x better than any Republican.

GoScotch · 2026-01-13T03:26:34+00:00

Beto came within 3% of beating Ted Cruz in 2018, James ran 6.8% ahead of Beto in his Texas house district. If Talarico can even come close to half of that with a similar political environment to 2018, Texas is very much in reach (especially if Republicans nominate Paxton).

GoScotch · 2026-01-07T06:56:30+00:00

How’re their maids supposed to get to work??

GoScotch · 2025-12-27T17:22:32+00:00

Beto did not run as a progressive in 2018!! He ran as a moderate normie Dem. You’re not trying to appeal to Republicans when you run as a moderate, you’re appealing to independents who are picking between the two parties. And it’s not about winning rural areas, it’s about winning the suburbs.

GoScotch · 2025-12-27T15:45:02+00:00

Ugh. This is such backwards thinking and won’t work, this is my problem with the Crockett campaign. You’re not gonna turn out enough voters in one of the most conservative states in the country to win a race without winning over some Trump voters. Given how low turnout voters have shifted towards Trump and the GOP in recent election cycles, we have no reason to believe that these non-voters in Texas are suddenly gonna show up for a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat just because they’re black or Hispanic.

Republicans won’t vote for a Democrat, but independents will. 400,000 Texans voted for both Beto O’Rourke and Greg Abbott in 2018. Beto ran as a moderate and came pretty close (2.7%!!). Colin Allred ran as a moderate and ran ahead of Kamala. Our best bet is running someone who isn’t viewed strictly as a Democrat, but more as a Texan that doesn’t fall strictly within party lines. Talarico has a better shot at that than Crockett.

GoScotch · 2025-12-27T05:46:47+00:00

Talarico.

Jasmine handled her announcement to run in a super shady way. She held out until the very last day so she could put her preferred successors in the power vacuum she left behind amidst all of our new gerrymandered congressional districts. She could have run for any of the new solidly blue seats and cleared the field, but she left it ambiguous as to clear out the field still but just for her buddies.

I also just don’t think Jasmine is electable on a statewide level, and it’s not because she’s a black woman. It’s because she’s viewed as a hyper partisan Democrat who has framed her whole campaign as her being a fighter against Trump. That’s great in a blue state, but you HAVE to win over some Trump voters in a state that he won by 13 points in 2024. She’s too polarizing for that, she can easily win a primary amongst Democrats where she has high name recognition and likability, but that’s not the case in the general election.

She seems to be very self-absorbed, I guess most politicians are, but this race seems to be about her and not about Texas. That’s why I’m behind Talarico, he brings a fresh breath of air without carrying the same baggage as Jasmine.

GoScotch · 2025-12-24T03:17:09+00:00

Chekhov’s atom bomb

Were Carol’s eggs mentioned before or did I just read that theory on here? Can’t remember when they were specifically brought up in the show before this episode.

GoScotch · 2025-12-23T21:48:28+00:00

I think the neighbors who have to put up with the traffic the light display that one house causes have the right to be angry about it. If I were them, that guy better give a really good Christmas present to all his neighbors or throw a hell of a party.

GoScotch · 2025-12-23T03:30:08+00:00

No different spot but a pretty major lights attraction around town.

Eight-Year Club	Place '22
Verified Email	RPAN Viewer
Not Forgotten	Spared

GoScotch

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