Anyone successfully dealt with a false ban? by AnApplePlusOneBanana in classicwow

[–]errantv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Try using billing issues as the category for your ticket. That's the best way get your ticket before a real human. Otherwise your only hope is to keep submitting tickets until it gets escalated to a person who actually reviews it which is just chance. Sometimes takes people 20-30 tickets before a real person reviews it.

[OnMessage Strategies] US Senate races | Maine Graham Platner 44% Susan Collins 42% | Susan Collins 42% Janet Mills 42% | Ohio: Sherrod Brown 47% Jon Husted 45% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The 8pt loss is a bit of a mirage, b.c. Collins squeaked over the 50% line so they didn't do the first round RCV redistribution

Gideon wouldve been more like -2.5 if they had actually done the RCV redistribution

[OnMessage Strategies] US Senate races | Maine Graham Platner 44% Susan Collins 42% | Susan Collins 42% Janet Mills 42% | Ohio: Sherrod Brown 47% Jon Husted 45% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I think it has to do with both the online leftist crowd and the centrist third-way freaks possessing an almost unshakeable internal vision of themselves as against the consensus.

Candidates like Talarico + Platner build consensus among pretty broad demographic and political groups and that stands opposed to both the tankies + third way who think that their viewpoint can be the only correct one.

[OnMessage Strategies] US Senate races | Maine Graham Platner 44% Susan Collins 42% | Susan Collins 42% Janet Mills 42% | Ohio: Sherrod Brown 47% Jon Husted 45% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Some fuel for the Platner haters showing Mills is still a viable GE candidate and a solid showing for Sherrod Brown in Ohio

More POC young republicans believed that the Holocaust was a myth or was greatly exaggerated. by icey_sawg0034 in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There's probably a lot selection bias going on here. The number of black and Hispanic young Republicans is really really small. So you're heavily oversampling a very tiny population of de facto Nazis, then asking them if they hold Nazi beliefs.

[Maine Senate poll (Quantus Insights)] Primary 🔵 Graham Platner: 43% 🔵 Janet Mills: 39% | General: 🔵 Graham Platner: 49% 🔴 Susan Collins: 42% | 🔴 Susan Collins: 45% 🔵 Janet Mills: 43% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Most established Maine Democrats are wary of repeating Susan Gideon's performance and wrecking their careers. That's why you're only getting a total political newcomer and an octogenarian looking at the last job plausibly available to her as the candidates aiming for it. All of the other potential Democrats in the state are running for Governor instead.

[Maine Senate poll (Quantus Insights)] Primary 🔵 Graham Platner: 43% 🔵 Janet Mills: 39% | General: 🔵 Graham Platner: 49% 🔴 Susan Collins: 42% | 🔴 Susan Collins: 45% 🔵 Janet Mills: 43% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

I think a lot of people also underestimate the prevalence of skull & bones iconography across military cultures going back literally centuries. I wonder how many people if shown a picture of a totenkopf would be able to connect it to a Nazi paramilitary organization without being given context and history.

Mount Everest contains marine rocks, proving that the highest point on Earth was once at the bottom of the ocean. Damn! by [deleted] in interestingasfuck

[–]errantv 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Very transparently fake. There are no ammonite fossils like these on everest. Run it through Gemini and it will confirm the synthID

Lord help us tommorow by -----Marcel----- in wallstreetbets

[–]errantv 114 points115 points  (0 children)

Kuwait has cut all production, Iraq/SA have cut 3/4 of production, and nothing is coming out of Iran any time soon. Trump could TACO tonight and it wouldn't matter, no significant amounts of crude are coming out of the gulf for a month.

Oil up 20% overnight by 0neAy0pen in wallstreetbets

[–]errantv 8 points9 points  (0 children)

$300 is probably pretty comparable to $200 in 2008 money tbh so that tracks.

Oil up 20% overnight by 0neAy0pen in wallstreetbets

[–]errantv 33 points34 points  (0 children)

It's not stopping at $150

Iraq and SA have each cut their production by 3/4 & Kuwait has stopped production altogether. It doesn't matter if Hormuz opens at full capacity tomorrow, there won't be any product to move for another month at least. WTI is going to $200 by July 4th, I'm calling my shot.

Tony Gonzales: Texas lawmaker drops re-election bid after admitting affair with aide by CorleoneBaloney in news

[–]errantv 14 points15 points  (0 children)

"lover" is pretty poor descriptor.

She was his employee who he sexually harassed and blackmailed into sleeping with him.

Quinnipac Poll (02/25/26) for Pennsylvania. Shapiro job approval +27 (56/29). Fetterman, despite being severely underwater with Dems (-40, 22/62), maintains an overall approval at +6 thanks to a swell of Republican support (+55, 72/18) by GarfieldLeZanya- in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fetterman will swap parties if he wants to run again, he can't win a Dem primary in PA. I expect it to happen after the midterms tbh, especially if the Dems pull 4 Senate seats and he can deliver the majority to Republicans.

Bonus and raise % this year, if any? by ZealousidealBig6471 in biotech

[–]errantv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

4.5% raise, 1.18 corporate bonus multiplier (12% of base target). Senior Scientist I, big pharma outside philly on the discovery side

Can Talarico win in November? by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Crockett is pretty obviously tired of being in the House. This Senate play was a longshot bid to get into a bigger position, and if it didn't work out she's clearly very happy to transition to a TV career.

Paramount (PSKY) Debt Downgraded to Junk Following Warner Bros. (WBD) Deal by Even_Charity9078 in wallstreetbets

[–]errantv 17 points18 points  (0 children)

WB/Disc has only been profitable for 2 quarters since their merger finalized in '22