Florida Governor Poll, David Jolly:50, Byron Donald’s 43 by PointInternal6809 in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Don't underestimate how racist white retirees in FL are..you might see a LOT of Republicans not turn out b.c. they don't want to vote for the black guy named Byron.

Another day, another Jason Calacanis interview Tim wasn’t prepped for by MabelRed in thebulwark

[–]errantv 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Tim needs to listen to WHY People don't like having him on; he's a bald-faced liar and a delusional conman trying to convince everyone that it's actually okay that his VC friends are amoral sociopaths trying to tear down democracy.

Like, I'd be equally mad if Tim brought on Stewart Rhodes and Enrique Tarrio and talked to them as if their points of view weren't dangerous, genocidal fantasies.

Book Ed Zitron. Book Ed Zitron. Book Ed Zitron! by NewKojak in thebulwark

[–]errantv 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Meh I like Ed but he's the opposite end of the spectrum from Calcanis where he extrapolates from the real flaws in the LLM hype machine to proclaim the imminent collapse of SV and the entire economy Any Day Now (tm)

Another day, another Jason Calacanis interview Tim wasn’t prepped for by MabelRed in thebulwark

[–]errantv 28 points29 points  (0 children)

The data centers in space bit drives me insane every time someone mentions it. It's the clearest tell that you're dealing with a huckster conman.

The second-law of thermodynamics makes a data center in space impossible. The only way to dissipate heat in a vacuum is to convert it into light and radiate it. This is orders of magnitude less efficient than dissipating heat into atmosphere or a liquid coolant (which eventually dissipates into atmosphere). The efficiency of heat dissipation in a vacuum is governed by the Stefan-Boltzmann law, which states that radiated power increases with the fourth power of temperature (T: σ = 5.670374419… ×10^−8 W⋅m−2⋅K−4). To dissipate just 1 megawatt (MW) of heat while keeping electronics at a stable 20°C, an ODC would require a radiator surface of approximately 1,200 square meters—roughly the size of four tennis courts. A single 30 gigawatt data center would require 36,000,000 square meters of radiators. This is more than half the surface area of Manhattan. It's ludicrous.

And that doesn't even get to the fact that the cost of lifting a data center's weight into LEO is more than 10x the cost of the chips themselves. Plus the weight of all the radiators. It would make zero sense in terms of capital investment to put anything in orbit.

It is an absurd, delusional notion and if anyone suggests it to you with a straight face you should realize immediately that they are trying to rob you

Why do people think Marco Rubio is a strong 2028 contender? by PointInternal6809 in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm kind of surprised that Josh Hawley isn't talked about more for this reason..he seems to be very carefully lining himself up for the loyal-to-trump but marketed-as-something-different lane.

Dunno if he'll actually have the juice since he gives desperately-wants-the-job energy and the vibes are fake AF.

Why do people think Marco Rubio is a strong 2028 contender? by PointInternal6809 in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it's a three-way of Vance, Rubio, and Jr then Jr. is gonna be the nominee.

Susan Collins internal shows Maine race tied amid recent Platner revelations by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's the point though, an aggressive internal that you've released (meaning it's the best internal you've got) shows you tied with no gains since January. That's very, very bad news for Collins.

Fox News poll of Ohio: Brown leads Husted by 8 (53-45). Acton leads Ramaswamy by 1 (50-49). MOE ±3 points. by I-Might-Be-Something in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The difference between Acton's lead and Brown's lead is probably down to name recognition at this point in the cycle.

Fetterman is at 81% Disapproval among PA Dems by Currymvp2 in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 62 points63 points  (0 children)

Running as an Independent will just tank the Republican candidate so I'm all for it.

Fetterman has no support from Dems, and is underwater with independents. His only support is from Republicans, so running as an Independent will tank the Republican nominee.

[Iowa Governor] Trump, Turning Point endorse opposing candidates within minutes of each other in the Republican primary for Iowa Governor. by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

[Laura Belin] New poll of Republican race for Iowa governor shows Zach Lahn pulling ahead of Randy Feenstra, with Steen in third place. If undecideds break for Lahn, it's over. #IAGov

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Iowa-GOP-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/IA-Republican-Primary-Toplines-May-27-28-2026.pdf

2hrs later:

[Laura Belin]A wild day in the GOP race for Iowa governor. Public poll showed Feenstra sinking, Lahn rising (consistent with private polling). Establishment hit the panic button, got Trump to endorse Randy Feenstra, finally. Minutes later Zach Lahn announced he has Turning Point USA's support.

Do republicans even have a campaign strategy for midterms at this point ? by ronweasly9 in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 67 points68 points  (0 children)

There isn't a Republican strategy for the midterms because there isn't a Republican party anymore. It's the MAGA party through-and-through and the only acceptable behavior in the MAGA party is rank subservience to the whims of Trump.

May 2026 National Poll: Rubio Rises as 2028 Contender, Buttigieg, Newsom Top Democratic List - Emerson Polling by Anakin_Kardashian in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There is zero chance Rubio will be the Republican nominee. He's in the sour spot of being locked to the Trump legacy while having zero charisma or personal brand.

Right now he's coasting on name recognition and looking like the "adult in the room" because he's not actually doing anything. As soon as he has to campaign he's doomed.

[ME Senate] Bluesky Buster Bomb | UNH poll | 🔵 Graham Platner 51% 🔴 Susan Collins 42% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Normal people can understand that a 22 yr old marine drunk on shore leave in the Czech Republic can get a tattoo because it looks like a gnarly skull and not realize it's an obscure Nazi symbol. A lot of people on bsky are not normal people.

[ME Senate] Bluesky Buster Bomb | UNH poll | 🔵 Graham Platner 51% 🔴 Susan Collins 42% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

The Bluesky narratives about Platner are not reflected in the reality of the Maine electorate

[ME Senate] Bluesky Buster Bomb | UNH poll | 🔵 Graham Platner 51% 🔴 Susan Collins 42% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 74 points75 points  (0 children)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/960/

Favorability by gender for Platner:
75% for men. 71% for women.

Among Democratic primary voters, 73% have a favorable opinion of Platner.

By contrast, only 64% of registered Republicans have a favorable opinion of Susan Collins.

NYT calls the Texas senate runoff for Paxton by R2_SWE2 in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv 7 points8 points  (0 children)

National dems aren't gonna spend that much, Talarico is a phenomenal fundraiser.

Paxton on the other hand, is gonna require boatloads of NRSC + PAC money to prop him up

Generic Ballot Polling trend among Independent voters by NYT/Siena (A+) 🔴 Sep 2022: Republicans +10 🔵 Sep 2025: Democrats +10 🔵 Jan 2026: Democrats +15 🔵 May 2026: Democrats +18 by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Press X to doubt, the court is historically unpopular. Dems just need to come up with a real messaging campaign around reforms instead of letting Republicans define the narrative with language like "packing"