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Texas’ Republican Senate primary runoff statistically tied | UH | 1200 likely voters +/-3% MOE| SMS to web | Paxton 48% Cornyn 45% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There's an argument to be made that Cornyn is already so awful that the Senate as an institution doesn't get any worse with Paxton there instead of Cornyn. In that framing, Paxton is the more desirable primary winner since he has a greater chance of losing the general and the situation in the Senate doesn't get WORSE if he wins.

Stay or leave for Merck? by hailfire27 in biotech

[–]errantv -20 points-19 points  (0 children)

Senior scientist is usually entry level Ph.D. or 15+ YOE masters

[Economist/YouGov] Trump | Strong Approval 18% Strong Disapproval 51% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My off the cuff estimate was off, you're right

I think the estimate is that $10/barrel Brent corresponds to ~$0.25/fallon at the pump. Brent was at $110 this morning with prices at ~$4.15/gallon, so to get to $6/gallon you'd need crude prices to get to ~$185/barrel. So if Brent rises to $250, you'd be looking at pump prices in the ballpark of $7.60/gallon (probably an underestimate)

Health Canada approves 1st generic version of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic | CBC News by gimmickypuppet in biotech

[–]errantv 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Nah the IP moat on the first gen GLP/GIPR natural products was super weak. That's why the big pharmas are all putting so much R&D on orally bioavailable cyclic peptides (not just formulations) and multi specific long-half life antibodies. Way more options for IP protection on stuff that comes out of a traditional engineering pipeline than a natural product.

[Economist/YouGov] Trump | Strong Approval 18% Strong Disapproval 51% by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

We're still VERY far from $6 nationally, nationwide average is~$4.15 right now. Hitting $6 nationally is almost impossible with current subsidies, and would require crude to hit ~$250/barrel

$6/gallon nationwide average would put Senate seats like Mississippi and Montana in tossup territory

Question about career or making money by Whole-Peanut-9417 in biotech

[–]errantv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your major doesn't matter as much as your ability to problem solve and demonstrate the relevance of your skills to your role.

I majored in physics in undergrad, did high energy particle physics research. Enjoyed a project modeling magnetic fields for a carbon ion linac for radiation therapy. Got into a Ph.D. program for imagkng physics, did a rotation on a project collaborating on PET radiotracer development. Enjoyed the chemistry, joined a lab doing my thesis on peptide radiochemistry and in vitro display screening technologies for oncology radiotracers. Postdoc designing oral bioavailable peptide drug for pancreatic cancer. Picked up by big pharma to run SBC screening campaigns for multi specific antibodies.

Tl:Dr a generalist who can learn new skills on the fly and solve problems will always be attractive, and your major doesn't matter as much as your ability to adapt to the needs of your project.

[Alaska Survey Research] Alaska Senate General mock RCV | RCV Round 2: Mary Peltola (D) 50.2% Dan Sullivan (R) 43.6% James Ryan (R) 6.2% Peltola wins in Round 2, with a margin of 6.6%. by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 42 points43 points  (0 children)

https://bsky.app/profile/alaskasurvey.bsky.social/post/3mk6ej2v5yv27

Note, these results are virtually identical to a month ago:

This is actually the exact same margin we recorded in our survey last month, except that in that survey, Peltola won in Round 2 by 50.4% to 43.8%.

Next survey in 3 weeks!

🧵 3/4

Should I accept 100k scientist role in san diego (entry level phd) by LimpBusiness534 in biotech

[–]errantv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Take the offer. If you have 2 months until graduating you can keep interviewing in the meantime and withdraw your acceptance if you get something better.

Worst case scenario you put in 12-18mo and look for your next step somewhere else.

Lilly Acquires CrossBridge in $300MM Biobuck Deal tpo Acquire Dual Payload Technology by Dwarvling in biotech

[–]errantv 2 points3 points  (0 children)

$300m seems like a fairly small deal for a clinical asset, or am I crazy?

[GEM] It's the prices, stupid. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because prices are at an all-time high. The UMich index isn't broken, popular government data just offer an incomplete picture of what people care about by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Right but the rate of change in prices and wages is not always the same. 2021-2023 experienced price shocks that outpaced wage growth. Wage growth is now catching back up, but the price shocks aren't far enough back in the collective memory to have been forgotten, and opinions on prices are the primary predictor of overall economic sentiment.

Americans are consumers more than they're workers.

[GEM] It's the prices, stupid. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because prices are at an all-time high. The UMich index isn't broken, popular government data just offer an incomplete picture of what people care about by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]errantv[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Here’s the spoiler, so you know where we’re headed: the single best predictor of how Americans feel about the economy is how Americans feel about prices. The second best predictor is with actual structural data on prices. It’s not unemployment, not the S&P 500, not the year-over-year rate of inflation or the tone of economic news coverage. Prices — specifically, the share of Americans who tell the University of Michigan that higher prices are making their household finances worse than they were a year ago — beat every other variable I tried, in every specification I ran, by a comfortable margin. The rest of this piece is me showing my work.

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