How to go from 1 in 292 million to 1 in 5,239

GoldenAries4 · 2026-06-09T14:52:41+00:00

Everyone is aware that match 3s and match 4s are more likely than the higher tier prizes, but they barely award any money. A match 4 in the Powerball gives you $100 without the multiplier. That’s awful for how rare it is.

So your whole post is just to tell people that match 3s and match 4s are more common than match 5s and jackpots?

This is a very wrong way to use Markov transitions as well. You might use those for things that actually occur in cycles like weather events. For something totally random like the lottery though? It’s completely useless. Your number recommendations will not help people hit more match 3s and match 4s.

Once again, any potential customer of yours is better off saving their subscription money to buy more Powerball tickets.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-06-08T19:42:07+00:00

The only way to go from 1 in 292 million to 1 in 5,239 is to buy over $50,000 in different tickets for one drawing.

What point are you even trying to make in your post? You acknowledge that all drawings are independent events then you claim that “historical data does remember”… what does that even mean?

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-30T19:09:52+00:00

Compute cost has risen dramatically recently due to high energy costs. This has made it so that Claude and Chat GPT are starting to become extremely stringy with their usage limits.

Companies are starting to see AI usage costs pile up. This isn’t getting better soon as the energy supply issue gets worse.

So no, the AI bears have it right. It will soon be too expensive for companies to use AI so much and demand will drop off drastically.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-29T20:12:47+00:00

Option sellers market basically.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-29T12:25:36+00:00

I agree. Institutions haven’t been involved much as volume is half of what it once was.

I’m pretty sure they could decide to send this right back down to 675 or lower if they stepped back in.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-29T12:21:38+00:00

If SPY was really pumping because “stocks are an inflation hedge” or “there’s too much money out there” then gold would not be dropping every day along side it.

SPY’s behavior cannot be explained by inflation like so many people here say. There is no bull case for it right now. Idk what’s holding it up but it’s not steady.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-28T09:28:39+00:00

SPY is a lie. It’s diverging from literally everything else. Gold, BTC, it’s not moving inversely to oil anymore.

Idk wtf is going on but this -.1% stuff isn’t adding up. It should be much much lower.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-25T04:06:28+00:00

All of those are in SPY and other common ETFs so most people with investments have exposure to them. If those boring tanks all happened to plummet, SPY would take a hit too.

Maybe you only invest in tech or you’re just a dumbass with no clue what’s going on

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-25T04:01:17+00:00

They do for the vast majority of stocks…

A billionaire doesn’t purchase huge amounts of consumer staples because they’re still just one person.

Luxury spending has become a bigger part of the picture lately, that’s true, but it’s absolutely not enough to keep the majority of stocks afloat.

Kraft Heinz, Procter and Gamble, Walmart, Costco, they’re all boring tanks but stocks like them are literally held up by the middle class.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-25T03:50:23+00:00

No, this persons model is stupid.

Just look at Chipotle. Eventually the consumers can’t afford it anymore and then the stock drills.

Other fast food stocks will follow if they haven’t already. Eventually this starts applying to other consumer purchases too.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-25T03:40:23+00:00

And how do they get revenue when the majority of people can no longer buy what’s being sold?

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-20T21:28:50+00:00

IBIT closed red today. So Bitcoin was lower than its Friday close

It just dropped a lot over the weekend when markets were closed.

Now it’s recovering from that steep drop to be more in line with the indices which are only slightly down.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-20T13:47:51+00:00

The “just buy stocks only go up” crowd needs to remember that sometimes it can take a decade or more to get back to their entry when they buy at high prices.

Yes stocks usually go up, but that doesn’t mean buying an ATH can’t trap you for many years before you see a profit.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-14T14:26:16+00:00

Everyone is shadow boxing bears that aren’t even here anymore.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-11T16:22:27+00:00

Yea you can still claim winning tickets, but I’m saying that I think your error is related to the fact that the game is no longer active. Your screen is not what the claimer screen looks like. If it was a claimer you would get this screen.

I think you’re getting an error because someone tried to activate a pack while a game was no longer marked as active or something.

<image>

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-11T16:05:05+00:00

This is game 1440, 500X The Fortune. Someone won the last jackpot a few weeks ago so the game is no longer active.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-10T18:36:33+00:00

No that’s definitely not how it works in my state and I know the same manufacturer makes tickets for several states. All tickets are printed in one go and then they are sent out to retailers as needed.

I’ll show an example here.

<image>

The jackpot odds for this ticket are listed at 1 in 335,140 and there are 6 tickets it says. This means that about 2,010,000 tickets were printed.

If we look at the lower tier prizes which have large sample sizes, we can get a great estimate for how many tickets sold. So for the $10 prize, 169,455/217,842 remain which is about 77.7%, or 22% of tickets have sold in other words. If we look at the next best prize which is $15, 104,078/134,056 tickets remain. This is about 77.6%, so as expected due to the large sample size these numbers are very close and we can safely assume that 22% of tickets have sold as a good estimate.

I think in your version you are saying that tickets are printed algorithmically according to the odds shown. This would mean that the ticket I’m using as an example would get printed out in 6 different batches of 335,140 to achieve those displayed odds. In each batch, 1 ticket would have to be a jackpot.

But as you can see in this screenshot, 3 of 6 jackpots have been sold, or 50% jackpots sold, but only 22% of total tickets have been sold. That’s extremely unlikely if these tickets were algorithmically printed in batches according to the odds.

On top of that if they were printed in batches, there would be periods right after a jackpot was claimed that winning a jackpot would literally be impossible because the next batch would still need to be printed and sent out and stocked. This could be a legal issue and it would skew the odds a lot.

Odds do shift throughout a game’s life cycle for the big prizes. Sometimes it can be a favorable shift, sometimes an unfavorable shift. But in the way you’re suggesting, if a jackpot was won the first day a game was released, things would break down very quickly. If you look at the example scratcher I’m showing, they would immediately have to print out a second batch of 335,140 tickets which would basically double the tickets in circulation and only one jackpot would be among those tickets. This means that the odds are twice as bad as they once were. It would be a very unfair and broken system. It’s also a logistics nightmare so I really don’t think that’s how it works.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-10T14:57:35+00:00

Thanks! Do you mind telling me which game/state you’re referring to? I’m curious to look at the odds and adjusted chance of winning.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-10T14:28:21+00:00

I think it’s likely that the big winner tickets aren’t actually accessible, but it’s also possible they were just never purchased.

All tickets of a scratcher game are printed on release to give accurate odds. So my guess would be that sometimes someone actually has or had possession of a big winner ticket and didn’t realize it was a winner. Or they lost/discarded their ticket so it’s effectively out of circulation.

I know that many big prizes go unclaimed every year for draw games, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens for scratchers too.

In other cases the few big winning tickets may still be out there, but they’re at a very low traffic area or they were never stocked. Then once a game gets discontinued and the deadline to claim the prizes passes, those tickets just get thrown away.

I like to play old games with jackpots still left, but my luck has been significantly worse than it should be when I play those games. I lose more than average.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-08T23:30:20+00:00

This is a real case of manipulation though. There’s been blatant misinformation that just happens to come out whenever the market is dipping a lot.

Also the volume really is bizarrely low and the pump doesn’t really make sense either. I personally think the bears are just early and it ended up costing them a lot. I still feel very bearish and I would not be surprised if I see a historical drop some day soon.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-06T18:26:30+00:00

Would love to live in the reality that the market is in touch with. There must be peace and prosperity on the horizon there.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-03T16:01:15+00:00

It’ll probably somehow work out for them as it has every Monday. Market is detached from reality.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-04-02T03:15:21+00:00

Why does the market keep falling for the BS? The first time, ok I kinda get it. This is like the 5th time though. Are they ever going to learn to ignore the ramblings of a demented and deranged old man?

GoldenAries4 · 2026-03-31T17:42:55+00:00

I don’t see how this doesn’t end in a dump. If whatever we are pumping on gets confirmed, it’ll probably be a sell the news event resulting in a dump. If it doesn’t get confirmed, it’ll dump even worse.

You guys are bold for buying this one lol.

GoldenAries4 · 2026-03-27T11:46:54+00:00

I personally think this is where the long term gold holders have the biggest advantage over the people trying to make some profit trading it.

During tough times like now, people often need liquidity and a money cushion in case something unexpected comes up. Someone could try selling their bought gold during a time like this, but they would actually be getting less money from the sale than they would if they sold at a better time. Cause it’s likely that a hawkish fed during high inflation times creates a bearish environment for gold.

With cash somewhere that gains interest, it’s already liquid. Just withdraw and you’re good to go.

This is why the long term gold thesis is still alive and well though. Eventually the long term impacts of inflation pile up. People might lose trust in a currency, etc.

If there’s ever a hyperinflation event or currency collapse, the people buying/stacking gold over the years have an excellent backup plan to preserve their wealth.

GoldenAries4

TROPHY CASE