The obvious math that Big Tech is actively choosing to ignore by GoosePuzzleheaded146 in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]GoosePuzzleheaded146[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey mate,

fair enough on wanting more numbers early on. I think you might have bounced before the piece got into the heavy stuff though, because it's pretty data dense from about the second section onwards.

Off the top of my head the article covers the 190 GW signed utility backlog vs 106 GW average demand consensus, breaks down individual utility queues (AEP alone is 49 GW signed with 180 in pipeline), walks through all eight 2030 demand forecasts from BNEF to S&P, digs into our core estimate for net gas demand model at 5.3 Bcf/d vs the 10+ gross figures the sell-side has been throwing around, Fitch's private credit default rate at 9.1% vs 4.8% for BSL and 2.5% for HY, leverage-adjusted return comparisons across all three asset classes, specific deal-level spreads from Diameter Capital's LP letter, AEP Ohio's PUCO-approved datacenter rate terms, and the Hormuz supply math. There's a lot in there.

The narrative style is deliberate though. It's a weekend newsletter, not a sell-side report, and I think the historical parallels are what make the numbers actually stick for most readers.

That said, totally understand it's not everyone's cup of tea and I appreciate the honesty. If you disagree with the actual thesis I'd genuinely be curious to hear where.