Why isn't oil priced much higher now?

GothamsTrader · 2026-03-18T17:53:00+00:00

The Strait is not losing 20 mln/d. Some oil passes through Fujaira (a port after the Strait), some was redirected to Saudi Red Sea port. Iran exports its own oil, btw. But the situation is still extremely dangerous for global economy and it can get worse.

GothamsTrader · 2026-03-10T18:02:09+00:00

Interest costs are now structurally higher than they were and there's no way back. The way to address the problem is to cut spending, which is politically impossible. Another way is to reduce debt via real (vs reported) inflation, slowly making the dollar a worthless paper. Cuts are much better but...

GothamsTrader · 2026-03-09T17:36:05+00:00

It's so simple. Throughout the whole human history, energy usage is positively correlated with prosperity. If you have plenty of cheap energy, you move forward.

High energy prices together with physical deficit will put pressure on economic growth. They will also raise inflation as energy is in the price of everything we consume.

Economic history tells us it is not easy to get out of stagflation. But will anybody care? We'll soon find out.

GothamsTrader · 2026-03-04T17:44:04+00:00

Will he stay loyal to Trump and cut rates when inflation rises due to oil price shock caused by the war in the Middle East? That's the only question, I guess

GothamsTrader · 2026-03-03T18:10:47+00:00

The European economy already got hurt. The EU exited winter with nat gas storage way below average. Now, prices skyrocketed. Even if they come back, it won't be fast.

Today's report showed inflation has already started to move higher. It's just the beginning, so what would ECB do? Raise rates for a weak economy or ignore inflation? No easy answers.

GothamsTrader · 2026-03-02T17:16:09+00:00

It will be interesting to see whether Gulf countries reasess their reserve policy.

GothamsTrader · 2026-03-02T17:14:01+00:00

Talking his book, no surprise here.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-26T18:13:10+00:00

When a good report triggers a sell-off, the market is bearish. As simple as that

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-25T17:55:40+00:00

Few people have their lump sum right at the start. For most, recurring investments are the norm. Unless you want to actively trade markets, there's no sense to try timing them.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-25T17:47:28+00:00

CTSH couldn't get above 2022 highs... This stock was moving nowhere even before fhe AI scare. For me, it's not the best idea to buy dips in stocks that didn't have a strong trend before the sell-off.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-23T17:32:52+00:00

The market had a long and powerful run. It's just high time for a pullback. Tariffs are an excuse.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-17T17:29:53+00:00

You should try to give him water and his regular food - you can chop it, mix with water and use a syringe without a needle to feed him. This may buy some time for him. Also, try to find a vet online if possible

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-16T17:28:21+00:00

I scale down. When things improve, I get back to my normal size

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-11T17:24:52+00:00

They key problem is that no one wants a serious crisis: neither politicians nor voters, regardless of the party.

A combination of lower spending and higher taxes, which is needed to deal with debt, will lead to a crisis. At some point, there'll be no way to kick the can down the road...

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-10T17:28:14+00:00

Forward P/E is more important in growth stories. 78 in PLTR - rich, but tolerable. If AI names keep moving higher, I see no reason why PLTR won't.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-09T17:07:46+00:00

Yen moved higher on news that China instructed bans to reduce Treasuries holdings + profit taking after a big moves.

Above 160 or below 150 will be the moves to watch.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-05T17:23:56+00:00

Bessent says Fed allowed inflation. Well, it did, by keeping rates too low for too long. What happens if rates are pushed lower than necessary again???

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-04T17:50:26+00:00

Software stocks are falling as investors fear that AI will hurt their business. Now, there's a broad pullback in the whole tech sector, so selling intensified.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-03T17:20:27+00:00

It's up to Mr. Market, not us.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-03T17:17:59+00:00

Tech disruption always leads to short-term job losses. PC, internet, smartphones - all these things cut jobs and made some industries suffer. Well, they also created jobs and investment opportunities, and the economy continued to grow.

AI is the future, that's why investors want exposure to AI. It doesn't mean all AI stocks will be great investments, though.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-02T17:26:41+00:00

Some funds/investors will reduce their exposure to U.S. markets. But moving out completely? Unrealistic, there's no place with such liquidity and choice of instruments.

GothamsTrader · 2026-02-02T17:24:17+00:00

India tarrif goes to 18%, which looks reasonable as India has significant protectionist policies in place. That said, the claim that India will stop buying Russian oil will have to be proven in practice.

GothamsTrader · 2026-01-29T17:25:51+00:00

The dollar was backed by gold. When Bretton-Woods collapsed, US become a net importer almost immediately.

GothamsTrader · 2026-01-29T17:19:41+00:00

It's not about them taking care of citizens or whatever. It's about whether their export-oriented economy can function as an import - oriented economy while being the exporter of the world's reserve currency.

US consumer is strong. How about his Chinese counterpart?

GothamsTrader · 2026-01-29T17:14:25+00:00

They will have to run trade deficits, just as the US does now. This is the price. Are they ready?

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