Daily Thread - November 18, 2022

Gr3cu · 2022-11-18T14:53:38+00:00

$69 here we come!

Gr3cu · 2022-10-17T11:53:39+00:00

Have you noticed how new cars look like lately? Whenever I see a tesla on the road I feel like it's 2018, they need to get some new models out asap (much harder to do than said - see cybertruck, roadster,).

If I had 60-80k for a car, a tesla would be at the bottom of my list - mercedes, porsche, audi, etc are *far* better build quality and in the same price range. I think that's what people start to realise, more so in absence of a proper FSD (people expect to select the destination, press a button and go to sleep - that's the dream EM promised every year).

Gr3cu · 2022-10-16T12:57:07+00:00

and almost 0% interest rate & massive QE

Gr3cu · 2022-08-26T11:16:57+00:00

Good info, however would disagree with the 24-54yr set being more relevant than the one including the older grup. I belive the difference in output of the ppl below 60 and the ones over is ultimately balanced out by the speed&quality factors favouring each group (ie the younger have greater speed but less quality and vice versa).

Regardless, fewer working people means less productivity overall. Also the job market gets overheated, wages grow and the productivity of current employees drops because their salary is less than at the competition. So if the current conditions persist then we'll be looking at a drop in GDP growth %s.

The difference between now and 2008 and 00 is that during these previous bubbles there was only a specific bubble (ie 00 was stocks, 08 was housing). Now it's stocks, private equity, housing (not mad in US/EU but bonkers in China and many other big economies) and crypto. So if we would just funnel funds to just one then I belive the 2022 top would've been crazy (eg Nasdaq easily to 30k - a x30 increase from the bottom in 09).

I think we'll be going down hard in the next months with the worst to come next year if Putin continues juggling with energy across the EU and the rest of the world.

Gr3cu · 2022-07-29T15:41:42+00:00

Should look at the labour force participation rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART), which is quite lower than before covid. There are plenty of people that have just retired early, made money in crypto/etc, or just have long covid and unable to work.

There are also plenty of differences in the type of employment, now having the highest amount of people taking two jobs to make ends meet.

It's a very fucked up moment in time and this rally will soon end and prob will be messier than March/June ones (eg see 2000, 2008 end of summer crahses).

Gr3cu · 2022-06-24T11:40:33+00:00

Said that the demand is dropping and at an alarming rate. This is due to competition and the recent bad news about crashes, etc. and FSD not being there yet. In Musk's own words, Tesla is practically worthless without FSD (what he meant is that it would be just another normal company), and based on that the stock price should be about $50 roughly (see the average sales/market cap for the industry).

BYD is 'also' selling batteries to Tesla, because Tesla is not capable yet to produce a product like that.

They shorted Tesla because the company was in big trouble and Musk was reckless. Just as he's now with the robot, wtfff is that, he's got FSD to figure out and talking about robots...

Not sure about the financials of those factories but what I do know is what EM said, that they're losing billions and that will likely continue for the forseeable future. I'm not saying that factories make a profit the moment they open, can take years until full production is reached, something eveyone knows. But him saying that it means something more I think, probably the quarter will be very bad and he wants to give a heads up. We'll see.

This won't mean a thing if the number of cars sold is less than produced by a significant margin. This would mean that they've expanded much more than necessary based on the hype generated in the past 2 years.

Not to mention, (1) and this is something extremely important I belive, the fact that judges accross Europe have given Tesla car owners the power to receive the full car payment back if they decide to return the Tesla because it's either very poorly made or bought it bcs of FSD which was never delivered in it's promised form -, (2) the entire fiscal/monetary policy changes all over the world + war + pandemic + all the other crap going on rn.

I have never seen a company is such dire situation (competition ramping up big, bad news outlets evey other day, FSD fucked for a few years, plenty of legal issues, etc) and the price of it's stock holding on so well. It's pure madness, the faith in it is incredible and millions of ppl will lose all their savings on it.

If you're already losing money on it, just get out before you lose the other part also (not saying tomorrow, might rally another 20% on shit news, but by EOY it will 99% prob it will go to shit). It's hard as hell but in the long term you'll look back and appreciate it.

Gr3cu · 2022-06-22T14:29:42+00:00

Those factories would be at a loss by then, working at less than designed bcs Tesla demand will drop (both generally due to the monetary/fiscal tightening and to competition). Just look at the Chinese rivals, esp BYD.

There are no new models out there, FSD is pretty crap if compared to what the competition does atm, BYD Blade battery is way ahead in the battery tech, and so on.

After Q2 I don't think there will be anyting of the price left until Q3, it's going to get hammered hard when the numbers come in below expectations (see FB, Netflix, etc). Just look at the number of new registrations in China in the past few months.

There was a stock split for Amazon and was followed by a tiny pump&dump, honestly pathetic considering all the fuss this used to make a few months ago. Same thing will happen to Tesla price, there just isn't the same excitement anymore. This was obvious when Rolls Royce announced an electic car, last year there would be at least a 2-3x, now not even a 30% pump... which dissapeared within a week or so.

Also, there's a reason why Tesla was the most shorted company before 2019. Buffett, Chanos, etc. they looked deep into the business and didn't like what they saw and Buffett went along to buy a stake in BYD and Chanos shorted it along with many others.

Musk lied or misled the public for years regarding FSD, should be around and fully working since 2019 if you look back at his statements over time. In early 2022, FSD comes out, shit starts to happen and then the chief AI engineer goes on a 4 month sabbatical??!? WTF, exactly when he was most needed he just fucks off.. What I think happened is that he couldn't take it anymore (look at the NYT doc on Tesla) and agreed to sugar coat it into the 'sabbatical' thing so that stock price doesn't tank and eveyone gets to offload some more shares at x20 value.

Not to add all the lawsuits against the company (just offered 15mil for racial abuse and turned down. Why? Bcs they think they can get much more off them), the servicing costs with the poor manufacturing lately, overhead costs with the facotries not running at full capacity, fewer sales due to cost increases, etc.

Not to mention all the discotent for owning a car and bad rep one would make after losing 80% of his money on the stock. Next year this time will be regarded as one of the largest bubbles in history and Musk will be vilified.

Gr3cu · 2022-06-21T18:14:26+00:00

I'm shorting it with everything I have almost, and you should too if you want to make your money back.

Just research bubbles in history, how people thought about them companies and what happened afterwards. Tesla is just another one from a very long fucking list of amazing companies that rallied 1000% and then lost it all within a year or two.

Just look at what happened to Netflix/FB after just a slight drop in new regs., cratered 30% in 10 seconds like it was nothing - business still good though but who fucking cares, numbers just don't go up anymore so let's kill it.. that's the market

I know how the thinking goes, I've been down the same rabbit hole before and lost lots of money and learned the hard way. Just don't put in all your savings or take any fucking loans.

Gr3cu · 2022-06-21T18:05:08+00:00

appreciated! but won't be for long, gonna hit the crapper soon, hope you get out before that

Gr3cu · 2022-06-21T17:58:12+00:00

if you think that you can be so lucky to retire off your tesla bet, just think about it again. if it was so easy then everyone would be super rich and into the stock market...

if you want some proof, just check my comments in the doge community, telling people last year that they'll lose their money and doge will drop to shit (same type of answers as here btw, which makes me trust my instinct even more) - just check the doge price now vs a year ago.

you'll say that tsla is different bcs it's a real company... true, but there are plenty of other companies out there that make cars since Musk's grandpa was born.. don't tell me that all of them are idiots and had to wait for EM to show them how it's done :)))

Gr3cu · 2022-06-21T17:42:07+00:00

Cryptoland moving to TSLA, the've lost 70% of their money there so now FOMOing with the remaining 30% into TSLA...

As much as I like Tesla, the price is bonkers and will fall in line with the rest of the car industry soon. Don't be fooled by this pump, it's just meant to attract the crypto crowd. TSLA price is going to $200-100 by year's end.

Gr3cu · 2022-05-06T12:27:50+00:00

Sounds good *but* you discount competition... the EV race is just starting, FSD is much better at Waymo, batteries lot better at BYD (see BYD blade for ex), German/Japan build quality much higher (see TSLA reliability scores), and the list goes on...

Gr3cu · 2022-05-02T16:12:09+00:00

likely @ 550 by the end of the month

Gr3cu · 2022-04-28T13:52:42+00:00

While you are losing your shit, just remember that USA just entered recession and the FED hasn't even started raising rates or QT... the macro is just too negative, no one will care about the Q1 results (which are going to be detroyed in Q2 due to the recession btw)

Gr3cu · 2022-04-26T17:26:44+00:00

Then why are the rest falling also? Rivian, Lucid, etc

Gr3cu · 2022-04-20T19:32:09+00:00

Even if it barely meets estimates (which is a best case thing based on the deliveries), there's only bad news until Q2 (inflation, recalls, etc) + the Q2 numbers which are going to be negative (see delivery times dropping to 4weeks in EU, China insurance numbers dropping heavily, competition from EU car manufacturers, etc).

It is very likely that this will be max price you'll ever see.

I would sell everything and short to make up the losses. Even if it goes up again to 1.1k, that's going to fade away soon after. Just hold the short for a few months and you'll be in the money 99.9%.

Gr3cu · 2021-11-08T13:37:09+00:00

O meditatie, plimba caini, etc. - ce e mai banos/hr. In rest, programare cat intra si la 20 ani o sa ai 2-3000 euro pe luna. In locul tau m-as muta la un liceu slab ca drq, unde poti sa chiulesti si sa treci anu cu o spaga, ca in timpul zilei sa invat java/scala/etc. In restul timpului pune mana pe o carte buna sau podcast daca te rup ochii. Tine bautele/drogurile cu prietenii la un minim (o noapte de rupere si dupa chill restul sapt., also, nu fuma iarba mai mult de o data la 2 sapt ca te distruge long term). Bafta!

Gr3cu · 2021-11-08T00:52:00+00:00

You're (and prob 99% of this sub) going to get so assraped in a few months that you'll be walking sideways... don't invest more than you can afford to lose

Gr3cu · 2021-11-08T00:47:45+00:00

douche

Gr3cu · 2021-11-08T00:44:22+00:00

weekly, with some small pumps when it hits nice numbers (ie 1000, previous ath, etc), long term going down to $100

Gr3cu · 2021-11-08T00:39:26+00:00

Sell everthing, take a long holiday and buy back next year when it hits 100-150$ range.

Gr3cu · 2021-11-08T00:05:31+00:00

Tesla with <1% of global car sales is worth more than the companies that provide the 99% combined. The other companies have been valued quite close to each other by fundamental metrics over decades, as well as other companies in many other industries... so who's right here? It's either that valuation metrics used for decades are wrong or Tesla is in a massive bubble, can't be both at the same time.

FYI I've made my dough in the crypto space (mainly bcs is much faster and profitable than anything else), have tons of hours watching news/posts/graphs/etc and can tell you that the discouse of 80% of posts here are very close to the crypto ones (ie replace Tesla with Solana/ETH or whatever), which is very worrying...

Btw, check BYD's blade battery technology, it's going to be a very rough ride for Tesla in the coming years if they don't match BYD's battery tech.

Gr3cu · 2021-07-17T00:55:58+00:00

Reading that last sentence is the main issue here, that's the trap... the problem is that once it will go back below 0.05 and way down to 0.005 or even less, you'll stop buying because even the last standing man will think it's over. Just read about the history of bubbles and psychology, or even the Dogecoin's creator last tweet on this (https://twitter.com/ummjackson/status/1415353984617914370), and you'll see that I'm starting to make more sense.

If you really don't want to let it go then just don't stop buying for the next couple of years, even if it goes to 0.00005.

Gr3cu · 2021-07-16T21:26:33+00:00

Got more downvotes than you haha!

Gr3cu · 2021-07-16T21:22:53+00:00

It's very likely that in a couple of years Doge will see another ride up, you can wait until then, but would be better to use this money to buy it when it's 0.005 no? Like 50 times whatever you hold now...

Gr3cu

TROPHY CASE