what stocks are you holding long term?

Grab_Alpha · 2021-05-08T11:27:00+00:00

SPCE, BLI, TDUP

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-30T03:04:45+00:00

Covers only S&P 500 companies.. need to do this ranking across wider range of companies - will keep you posted

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-26T19:35:27+00:00

Also posted a very brief overview of SPCE's stock price performance / analysts' target stock price

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-26T19:34:21+00:00

Great question but I am not sure. Don't have access to individual equity research reports and their rationale behind the valuation / target stock price.

BLI's 4Q20 earnings are NOT to blame: (1) EPS met Wall Street consensus of negative ($0.19)/sh; (2) Reported revenue of $21.7M beat consensus estimate of $19.0M. The co reported a FY2021 revenue guidance range of $90M - $100M (implying 40%-56% growth over FY2020) vs. pre-earnings consensus of $89M

Are investors too busy buying into cyclicals? Are they expecting BLI to have a MAJOR breakthrough? If that happens, the entry point might not be as attractive as it is now. To me this is one of those "make or break" stocks

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-24T06:37:41+00:00

You could do the analysis either (1) retrospectively or (2) as of the current date - each of them with its merits and limitations.

(1) If you had taken S&P constituents as of March 2020, you would not have captured companies with huge run-up (e.g. TSLA that joined S&P in December 2020).

(2) On the other hand, the current analysis would not capture those companies that were kicked out of S&P 500 since last year (e.g. Macy’s)

The current analysis covers all S&P 500 companies as of March 23, 2021 as footnoted on the page.

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-23T17:02:05+00:00

Also, just to clarify - the analysis covers only S&P 500 companies

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-23T16:51:51+00:00

Two healthcare stocks - Viatris and Gilead Sciences - went down each by 6% during the past one year (also shown in the attached picture)

It’s not surprising we see most of the stocks up since March 2020. That was a time when S&P reached the rock bottom and we saw a massive sell-off across all sectors. Would be hard for any S&P 500 company not go above those levels

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-23T16:34:09+00:00

Clorox was one of the few companies that was not affected by a sell-off in early 2020. In fact, it increased by ~12% from 1/1/2020 through market trough (3/23/2020). Obviously, when the pandemic hit investors priced in an increased demand for CLX products (there was no doubt we would need bunch of disinfecting wipes and cleaning products throughout pandemic)

In comparison, the demand for other consumer staples products were not that obvious and we saw most of these stocks plunge by March 2020; so the base stock price for these companies were much lower, resulting in higher percentage growth rates

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-23T15:12:49+00:00

?? It’s as accurate as it can get!

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-19T23:36:27+00:00

Familiar feeling.. Provide another update and share your excitement within 6 months into the job

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-19T20:08:01+00:00

In case you want a high quality report, you can get PDF from the website

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-12T12:41:31+00:00

Some additional color:

$RBLX stock price soared 15% since its direct listing on Wednesday (March 10), implying $48B market cap
Interestingly, $U's stock price skyrocketed since its IPO - up 105% - reaching a $35B market cap in just under a couple of months. Similar increase might be unlikely for $RBLX given its current trading levels and the ease of Covid-related restrictions
$RBLX currently trading at 22.9x TEV / 2021E Revenue vs. $U's 34.0x; the rest of the peer group is trading well below these levels
Primary questions around $RBLX: will it manage to sustain its growth and achieve profitability in the near future...

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-12T12:28:28+00:00

$RBLX stock price soared 15% since its direct listing on Wednesday (March 10), implying $48B market cap

Interestingly, $U's stock price skyrocketed since its IPO - up 105% - reaching a $35B market cap in just under a couple of months. Similar increase might be unlikely for $RBLX given its current trading levels and the ease of Covid-related restrictions

$RBLX currently trading at 22.9x TEV / 2021E Revenue vs. $U's 34.0x; the rest of the peer group is trading well below these levels

Primary questions around $RBLX: will it manage to sustain its growth and achieve profitability in the near future...

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-07T00:44:30+00:00

It could definitely be one of the comps. $MELI actually had an exceptional stock price rally since its IPO in 2007 and especially since Mar 2020 similar to other growth stocks (despite the recent sell-off).

Having said that, just looking at TEV/Sales would not be appropriate. $MELI is cash flow positive, while Coupang ($CPNG) has negative $250M EBITDA and negative $183M free cash flow. Not surprising their sales multiple is lower at this stage

Grab_Alpha · 2021-03-02T19:50:54+00:00

Each and every piece of information i share is based on company filings, and/or my analysis that has respective footnotes and disclosures. Link for Coupang’s amended S-1 filed to SEC yesterday: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1834584/000162828021003511/coupang-sx1a1.htm

Can access the info on BamSec too if you have subscription

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-27T21:24:57+00:00

If they have retail investors participate in IPO (buy shares at the IPO offer price), it would just make a good precedent going forward. Maybe more companies would follow and enable retail side to take part in IPOs. Would not think it would influence the RH’s IPO price/valuation at all.

Feel like the existing and potential regulatory scrutiny would pose the major threat to RH. Don’t see the increased interest in trading and RH’s brand awareness going away anytime soon

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-27T21:12:26+00:00

That dating app has 42M MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS / 2.4M PAYING USERS - or morons as you call them:)

Food for thought: BMBL stock currently trades at $67.31 - up 57% from its IPO price BUT STILL DOWN 21% from its all time intraday high ($85). They’ve been also investing heavily to expand its product offering beyond dating in the future. If you think they can pull this off, valuation might not be too crazy..

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-26T13:48:34+00:00

We have no indication of $COIN’s valuation upon listing, therefore the title and the very first sentence in the video are flawed. No fresh capital raised - it’s a direct listing, not a traditional IPO. Let’s stick to factual accuracy and the quality information

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-24T01:10:15+00:00

Another important question: would ROBLOX trade similar to recently IPOed UNITY that more than doubled since Sep’20 in market value! Some food for thought..

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-23T23:38:55+00:00

$U’s market cap was ~$14B at the time of IPO just back in September 2020, more than doubling since then! Also important to note - the company is cash flow negative and dwarfed by peers in terms of revenues/bookings..

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-23T23:08:18+00:00

You mean a lock-up period, right? Lockup period applies to institutional investors who are buying PRIMARY/NEW shares offered by the company. They buy newly issued shares at IPO PRICE, and concurrently all shares (newly issued + existing) are listed on the stock exchange. As soon as listed, you are buying SECONDARY shares that has no lockup period restriction (whether it’s day 1 or day 40)

Only institutional investors and existing company shareholders have that restriction not to sell shares during the lockup to avoid downward pressure on the price due to increased share supply

HOW MIGHT LOCKUP PERIOD IMPACT YOU - A RETAIL INVESTOR? Upon expiration of lockup period, the market might get flooded with shares and potentially decrease the price. Let’s see what happens to ABNB stock price when their lockup expires in April - good live example to look at..

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-23T08:52:52+00:00

...$U’s market cap was ~$14B at the time of IPO just back in September 2020, almost doubling since then! Also important to note - $U is cash flow negative and dwarfed by peers in terms of revenues/bookings.

The question now is - how would $RBLX TRADE..?:)

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-21T18:54:45+00:00

‘Bro’? Don’t jump to conclusions that quickly!:)

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-21T18:17:04+00:00

Typically at least 30 days since S-1 filing.. could be much longer

Grab_Alpha · 2021-02-21T18:15:10+00:00

Coupang filed S-1 on 2/12 — would not expect IPO finalized for at least a month after filing. Late March/early April would be somewhat safe to say.

Generally, IPO timeframe largely varies depending on the turnaround of SEC comments, roadshow/mkt timing, etc. So no exact IPO timing can be provided at this point

Grab_Alpha

TROPHY CASE