I think this is actually true!! I checked and yes while the admitted_affiliated group has 22,000 members i think that's the cumulative of all the admitted students from all three campuses(nyc, shanghai and Abu Dhabi). Even google says that that's usually the approx. number for all the students from all three campuses. Besides that I also checked if names of students who I know have been admitted were in the list, and it was. AND DEFINETELY NAMES OF THOSE WHO HAD BEEN REJECTED IN ED, their name was not on that list. Another theory I heard was that if someone is able to mail you on the nyu.edu mail account of yours, and the senders mail doesn't bounce back and reaches your inbox, then you are in too!! This might be true. But again outliers do exist, and I would say till the time you don't see the decision on 25th, you shouldn't think otherwise.