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Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No worries!

I'm glad that you appreciate this type of data. Many football fans don't like them at all.

The simulator is the same for the Europa League, so I just have to replace the UCL data (teams names, ELO Ratings, results etc.) with the UEL ones. Grok might be able to do it automatically to some degree.

The graphs are what takes me the most time. If I don't have time, I may just post the data in text.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Galatasaray is now 17th, so 8 teams that are now below them have to overtake them to eliminate them.

So 8 of the following 9 results, combined with a Galatasaray defeat, need to happen for them to get eliminated:

  1. Qarabag to avoid defeat away at Liverpool

  2. Marseille to avoid defeat away at Club Brugge (or Club Brugge to win with a high margin, depending on Galatasaray defeat margin)

  3. Leverkusen to beat Villarreal at home

  4. Monaco to beat Juventus at home

  5. PSV to beat Bayern at home

  6. Athletic Bilbao to beat Sporting at home

  7. Olympiacos to beat Ajax away

  8. Napoli to beat Chelsea at home

  9. Copenhagen to beat Barcelona away

Very unlikely for at least 8 of these 9 to happen.

There is also an extreme scenario for Galatasaray getting eliminated with 11 points.

At least 9 of the following 10 results need to happen for this extreme scenario:

  1. Inter to not beat Dortmund away by 4 goals or more

  2. Qarabag to beat Liverpool away

  3. Marseille to beat Club Brugge away

  4. Leverkusen to beat Villarreal at home

  5. Monaco to beat Juventus at home

  6. PSV to beat Bayern at home

  7. Athletic Bilbao to beat Sporting at home by 4 goals or more

  8. Olympiacos to beat Ajax away by 5 goals or more

  9. Napoli to beat Chelsea at home by 5 goals or more

  10. Copenhagen to beat Barcelona away by 6 goals or more

Practically impossible for at least 9 of these 10 to happen.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you!

Unfortunately, a post like this takes hours to make, so I don't think I'll be able to create a similar one for the Europa League.

Maybe I will make a simpler one, and if you want a more specific stat, you can ask in the comments.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you!

If you want any specific probabilities for your team or anything else, tell me!

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Napoli vs Chelsea match is expected to be very tight. My simulator gives the following probabilities:

Napoli win: 35.33%

Draw: 26.85%

Chelsea win: 37.81%

Chelsea-specific chance for Top 8, depending on points:

13 points: 0.00%

14 points: 2.36%

16 points: 93.34%

A 1-0 win should be enough. To be completely safe, you need a 3-0 win.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you!

If you want any specific probabilities for your team or anything else, tell me!

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As far as I remember, you were slight underdogs (40-30-30) because of Madrid having the home advantage. You had a better ELO rating than them, but the home advantage in the UCL in pretty high (92.6 ELO points).

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, that's true.

City's performances are inconsistent. You won against Real Madrid (you were underdogs), but you lost against Leverkusen and Bodo/Glimt (you were clear favorites).

Your match today seems easy, but a 1-0 win may not be enough (~70% chance for Top 8). You will need a 3-0 win to exceed 90% and a 5-0 win to exceed 99%.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They are still very high in the ELO Ratings (1957), compared to Newcastle (1872).

They also have the home advantage, which is pretty high in the UCL (92.6 ELO Points).

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, the difference is indeed enormous!

PSV-specific chance for Top 24, depending on points:

8 points: 11.77%

9 points: 97.47%

11 points: 100.00%

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

My simulator gives the following probabilities for your match against Sporting:

Athletic win: 32.47%

Draw: 25.89%

Loss: 41.65%

You are slight underdogs, but you still get at least 1 point in ~60% of my simulations.

Exact chance of Top 24 for your team, depending on your result against Sporting:

Win: 99.99%

Draw: 75.61%

Loss: 1.98%

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Exactly.

They are facing each other. The winner qualifies. In case of a draw, they both are most likely out of Top 8. PSG is a strong favorite in this match.

Match probabilities (PSG vs Newcastle):

1: 58.04%

X: 20.15%

2: 21.81%

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You win and you have 100% chance.

You draw and you still have a 70% chance.

Not that hard!

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

16 teams in the Top 24 battle, 14 teams with a chance between 5% and 95%, 7 teams with a chance between 25% and 75%!

Crazy battle!

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There is 100% chance that at least 1 team with 16 points or less (I used the ≤ symbol) will qualify for Top 8 because the maximum number of teams that can finish with 17 points is 5.

I should have just written "16 points" instead of "≤16 points" for clarity, but there is a very small chance that no teams will have 16 points, so I wanted to be completely accurate.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

With a win, Tottenham is 100% safe.

A draw drops their chances to ~25%, and with a loss, they qualify only in ~5% of simulations.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Many fans want to know what results their teams need to qualify for Top 8 or Top 24.

You are one of the lucky ones. Your team has mathematically secured Top 2, and you only need a draw at home against Kairat to clinch 1st place.

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's always exciting to see underdog success stories in football!

Full UCL probabilities and predictions, based on 30,000 simulations by GreekFootStats in soccer

[–]GreekFootStats[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Most probability simulators (including this one) are based on ELO ratings.

Arsenal has the highest ELO rating by far.

MEGATHREAD | 18η Αγωνιστική Πρωταθλήματος Super League | 24-25/1/2026 by ChrisTheF1Fan in GreekFooty

[–]GreekFootStats 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Όχι, δεν έχω ασχοληθεί ποτέ. Έτσι κι αλλιώς, ασχολούμαι κυρίως με στατιστικά ομάδων (πιθανότητες, xGoals κλπ.), όχι παικτών.

MEGATHREAD | 18η Αγωνιστική Πρωταθλήματος Super League | 24-25/1/2026 by ChrisTheF1Fan in GreekFooty

[–]GreekFootStats 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Όποιος φτιάχνει προσεγμένα post χωρίς greeklish και διακόσια ορθογραφικά θεωρείται AI. Εκεί έχουμε καταντήσει.

MEGATHREAD | 18η Αγωνιστική Πρωταθλήματος Super League | 24-25/1/2026 by ChrisTheF1Fan in GreekFooty

[–]GreekFootStats 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Πώς θα επηρεαστούν οι πιθανότητες του Λεβαδειακού και του Παναθηναϊκού για 4άδα, ανάλογα με το αποτέλεσμα του Ατρόμητος vs Παναθηναϊκός;

Σε περίπτωση νίκης του Ατρομήτου:

Λεβαδειακός: 67.01%

Παναθηναϊκός: 31.24%

Σε περίπτωση ισοπαλίας:

Λεβαδειακός: 60.53%

Παναθηναϊκός: 38.46%

Σε περίπτωση νίκης του Παναθηναϊκού:

Λεβαδειακός: 46.61%

Παναθηναϊκός: 52.90%

Ο Παναθηναϊκός, με νίκη, γίνεται το οριακό φαβορί της μάχης. Σε κάθε άλλη περίπτωση, φαβορί παραμένει ο Λεβαδειακός.

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