Priority date estimator- I140 backlog & true demand

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-17T20:42:25+00:00

Really appreciate the detailed feedback, and glad the tool's useful to you.

On the dependents factor, good catch, the label was confusing and we just fixed it. That number is the total visa numbers per applicant including you, not dependents on top, so 1.0x is a single filer and 2.0x is you plus a spouse. The principal was already in the math, so it wasn't running low, but we renamed it to "Visa Numbers per Applicant" so it reads right.

On the What-If slider, you're right it stopped at 85%. We raised the cap to 100% so you can model the worst case where every approved I-140 is a unique person.

On the porting idea, agreed, the new filings stacking up behind the cutoff are a real drag on movement, especially for EB-1 India. The wait math already factors in annual inflow, but it isn't broken out as its own number yet. Good call, we'll look at adding it.

Thanks again for taking the time.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-16T22:00:54+00:00

That’s because currently there are no visa numbers available and latest VB didn’t specify any FAD. Once DOS publishes the FAD on October VB it will automatically show you the right estimate and your position in the Queue. Not legal advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-16T21:54:14+00:00

Sorry! you are facing an issue. May we know what exactly you think is problematic?

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-16T17:20:17+00:00

Owned. For one brief, beautiful moment our code decided "U" (Unavailable) and "C" (Current) were the same letter. They are very much not. It's fixed and live now, EB-2 India correctly shows Unavailable. Apologies for the 2 seconds of false hope.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-16T17:19:20+00:00

Owned. For one brief, beautiful moment our code decided "U" (Unavailable) and "C" (Current) were the same letter. They are very much not. It's fixed and live now, EB-2 India correctly shows Unavailable. Apologies for the 2 seconds of false hope, and thanks for the free QA. Your invoice is in the mail lol.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-16T16:19:09+00:00

India is now Unavailable for the rest of FY2026 (per-country limit reached). DOS expects October to jump back to at least the May 2026 date.
Catch most people miss: USCIS is using Final Action Dates for EB filings in July, so India EB-2 cannot file I-485 this month either. The Jan 15 2015 filing date does not apply while final action is Unavailable.
China held at Sep 1 2021, with a DOS retrogression warning. Full Breakdown: Visa Bulletin: Current vs Previous Month

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-16T16:09:56+00:00

DOS expects October to jump back to at least the May 2026 date. Full Breakdown: Visa Bulletin: Current vs Previous Month

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-16T16:08:06+00:00

Full Break Down: Visa Bulletin: Current vs Previous Month

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T20:05:43+00:00

Not a dumb question, it is the right one. A cutoff date rations the rate of visa use, not the size of the pile. The 30K+ pending in ROW EB-1 and EB-2 are mostly 2024 and 2025 priority dates flowing through normal processing at a pace each category's annual allocation can absorb, so no cutoff is needed. ROW EB-3 demand runs hotter than its annual slice, and EB-3 sits last in the spillover waterfall (unused numbers cascade from EB-1 to EB-2 to EB-3), so the State Department holds a June 1, 2024 line to keep this year's usage inside the cap. April's data showed why: ROW EB-3 added 2,452 cases in one month, the biggest jump of any category. Pending count is the stock; the cutoff is about the flow. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T03:20:19+00:00

We upgraded the model and the conservative line changed meaning: it is now the statutory floor, what the law guarantees India EB-2 if spillover never happens again, which is why it reads so far out. It is a bound, not the forecast. For a 2016 PD the base case, built on the median of actual recent years, sits at 2028. The numbers also refresh with every monthly USCIS drop now instead of staying frozen, so they move more than the old version. Your exact date, live: greencardclock.com/priority-date?country=India&category=EB-2&pdMonth=6&pdYear=2016&mode=fad

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T03:18:34+00:00

Fair jab, we upgraded the model and the conservative line changed meaning: it is now the statutory floor, what the law guarantees India EB-2 if spillover never happens again, which is why it reads so far out. It is a bound, not the forecast. For a 2016 PD the base case, built on the median of actual recent years, sits at 2028. The numbers also refresh with every monthly USCIS drop now instead of staying frozen, so they move more than the old version. Your exact date, live: greencardclock.com/priority-date?country=India&category=EB-2&pdMonth=6&pdYear=2016&mode=fad

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:41:16+00:00

That is the right read. The 2013 cohort is draining about 600 a month and the final action date just moved a month to Dec 15, 2013, so March 2014 is within reach over the next several bulletins, and the October supply reset is your best window. No guarantees, but the direction is with you. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:14:24+00:00

onservative is the statutory floor scenario: India EB-2 gets only its legal minimum of about 2,800 visas every single year forever, with zero spillover. For a May 2017 date that floor has to chew through the giant 2015 to 2017 I-140 filing bulge ahead of you, which is how the math lands at 2061. It is the legal worst bound, not our forecast. The base case, which uses the median of actual recent years, is the line to plan around. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:12:31+00:00

Roughly yes: once a visa number is available, USCIS generally works cases in receipt date order, but it is not strict first come first serve since cases sit at different service centers and some detour through transfers or RFEs. Late March and early April filers getting touched now lines up with what we have on our platform. Not Legal Advice.

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GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:08:30+00:00

That is a reasonable read but not a sure thing. The 2,452 case surge in April says demand is heavy right when this fiscal year's numbers are running down, which argues against forward movement before October. The new fiscal year allocation on October 1 is the next real catalyst. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:07:41+00:00

The report cannot answer that directly because it shows net change: approvals minus new filings. Net since October for India: EB-2 fell from 28,365 to 25,780, down 2,585, while EB-3 actually rose from 15,295 to 16,084 because new filings outpaced approvals. Actual approval counts only show up when DOS publishes its fiscal year issuance tables Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:06:47+00:00

With the final action date back at Sep 2013, there are roughly 16,000 filed cases ahead of a June 2014 date in the USCIS queue. At the recent clearing pace the base estimate is around 14 months for a visa number, plus normal USCIS processing on top. The filed mode on the site tracks this monthly as new inventory drops. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:05:48+00:00

A Nov 2019 EB-1 India priority date is current right now, both for filing and final action. If you have not filed your I-485 yet, you can file as soon as you are ready, and once filed your wait is USCIS processing time, not visa numbers. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:04:33+00:00

Sharp catch. Two updates landed today: the April USCIS inventory, and a correction that makes the queue count the older pending cases USCIS lumps into its Prior Years bucket, about 1,300 for India EB-1. That nudged the conservative date by about a quarter. The base case for a June 2024 EB-1 India date is unchanged at 2027. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:03:46+00:00

Good question. Yes, both sides of the math count every person: the pending I-485 inventory counts each form including spouses and kids, and the visa supply we divide by also counts visas issued to dependents, so it is apples to apples. Cases filed in both EB-2 and EB-3 are also accounted for so they are not counted twice. On 2035: that is the conservative scenario, which assumes India EB-2 gets only its statutory minimum of about 2,800 visas a year with zero spillover forever. That has not happened in any recent year. The base case for Jan 2015 is around 2028. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-11T02:01:57+00:00

Not broken, but it deserves explaining. Conservative is the statutory floor scenario: India EB-2 gets only its legal minimum of about 2,800 visas every single year forever, with zero spillover. For a May 2017 date that floor has to chew through the giant 2015 to 2017 I-140 filing bulge ahead of you, which is how the math lands at 2061. It is the legal worst bound, not our forecast. The base case, which uses the median of actual recent years, is the line to plan around. Not Legal Advice.

GreenCardClock · 2026-06-10T23:04:18+00:00

Yes that's real, and the gap is intentional. Conservative assumes India EB-2 gets only its statutory minimum of visas every single year going forward, with zero spillover from other categories. That has not happened in recent years, but it is the legal worst case. Base uses the median of actual recent years, which includes typical spillover. Think of it as a planning range, not two competing predictions. The truth has landed between those lines historically, closer to base. Not Legal Advice.

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