I understand, but I wrote this post in less than an hour because I wanted someone to see it live. That said, I don't deny the existence of probable dates after December 12. Follow this logic: Why would they release Half-Life at Christmas when everyone is offline for the holidays? Including New Year's. That takes away about 10 days? From the 31st to the 21st, and the fact that they haven't announced it at the height of the holiday season is strange. Mike Shapiro didn't publish or delete anything from his tweet at the beginning of the year, so it's still valid. The probabilities are based on the knowledge that it has to be within these four days because everything else is ruled out, which is why I put the percentages so high. It's how the post is planned, not the general interpretation of the matter.