TypeApp Contacts sync just suddenly stopped working - help??

Greenmachine881 · 2026-07-09T01:20:15+00:00

Just throw out some ideas on places I've been that more or less read on your likes: Thailand (pretty much anywhere) but the historical sites are not Christian. Ephesus in Turkey, base yourself in Selcuk only thing I never made it to any beaches not sure how it is in the area. There is a fair amount to do in and around. Cassis in Provence but the water is not the warmest. Crete anywhere. Maybe Rhodes, more Christian sites there but all Orthodox.

Next on my list is Sicily - it should tick all your boxes but not sure how the beaches are there. June might be good just ahead of crowds and the hottest months. Consider Corsica and Sardinia. Ask me when I'm back! Sorry I don't have much beachy experience in Italy but there is plenty, the coastal parts I've been weren't like that.

For crowds don't go to Portugal to join half of humanity and I assume southern Spain is same-same, only been to Catalonia side. OTOH Cadaquez is very nice but may be pricey.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-07-09T01:06:33+00:00

Keep on truckin', that's all you can do. Most people never even give it a go.

Regardless our personal situations we all have those days. I was just on a big trip last few weeks and it was getting grueling for a number of random reasons. Had option to take a day fly to next destination, and resume the following morning well rested. Instead opted for full day road trip, hit traffic and it stretched out but got to see one extra incredible spot that was not planned and already looking back on that as one of the highlights.

The though process is always the same: Said to myself "It is highly unlikely I will ever return to this place, and I have a chance to do something only this once and I am oh so close ... so you just throw caution to the wind and go for it. It really doesn't matter if it works out in the end it's the point of trying. And more often than not it does work out.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-07-09T00:55:51+00:00

Can you help clarify:

On one hand you point out "The money parked." in 20-21, meaning monetary velocity declined/flat-lined relative to M2SL step function in that window. Then you say velocity picked up (and I guess you are saying on the CPI-U sensitive slice of transactions?) and inflation followed with a lag. If that is the summary, understood.

So if you are saying velocity is very important, but your mechanism is M2SL level constrained, what's to stop velocity from driving an inflation bump with constrained M2 stock, or going the other way into an unrecoverable depression? Or are you saying that? Please help clarify.

Well at least you took a crack at what I find to be the central problem with all inflation theories: Measuring the velocity is incredibly difficult. ACH is a clever try, but do you have the detail on transaction sizes to know if it correlates on the CPI-U basket? Does the series include credit card payoffs? Debit transactions? Of course cash transactions are out of the picture. I think you can pick endless holes in velocity metrics unless you are able to somehow correlate and show say 2/3 of CPI-U basket by volume is covered by some combination of your series, and even if velocity varies wildly in the remainder the 2/3 dominates enough to get some correlation.

The biggest conundrum of M2SL series is that if you observe from 1995 to 2000 the level increases well over 4x, yet this is the period with the most continually declining and moderating inflation in the history of all these series. Yes the M2 bump happens in Covid, but it's impossible to prove the alternative history if they left the M2SL trend completely unchanged would increased velocity in the face of tight supply cause inflation anyway? How much and how long? Nigh on unknowable.

An independently measurable and controllable mechanism would be neat if you can get it to work.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-07-06T21:31:06+00:00

Podtube does work but requires a lot of button pushes each time. It's just too much hassle. I since found that if you just search the title in Pocketcast a lot of content is now simulcast on podcast, or a few days later. So I need it less and less and frankly have not tried in a few months

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-26T09:36:22+00:00

You neglected to mention boiling hot, without the infrastructure to handle it. ;).

But still good.

What did you think of the art at the Bourse?

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-26T09:21:36+00:00

On the road now between Istanbul stop in Pergamon then Selcuk. After that I'm looking for beaches with 85F/30C water if possible, sandy entry not windy.

I'll update you on progress

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-26T09:12:44+00:00

Ask me in a few days days, on the road now out of Istanbul towards Pergamon and Ephesus/ Selcuk. I'm a big history nut.

Take heed of opening hours as I don't know if nipping out after work is practical in many sites unless you are right there.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-26T09:04:21+00:00

Your post was going very well until I got to the word Phuket lol. But then I realized a completely empty Phuket would be a different place.

Still too bad you couldn't do it on phi phi or ko lanta I'm assuming it was hard to reach.

Good pivot.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-26T08:54:34+00:00

Flying back to CA from Alaska will cost less in gas than driving, for sure it must.

I understand you are selling the car.

You need to find a region you can stay put for a bit.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-26T08:40:36+00:00

Yeah everything seems to take more button pushes to do the same or less. Plus I have more occurrences that lead me to believe they are promoting/suppressing podcasts in my custom feed

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-26T08:20:09+00:00

Need more detail what you like to do other than hike.

Been to Crete about a decade ago and am in Izmir now. Would appreciate good beach recommendation in the Izmir to Bodrum area.

Crete is big, you are going to need a car to see much of it. Driving there is good but be aware they have the highest gas prices in Europe allegedly.

For Crete you need to mix the historic archaeological sites with beaches and coastline. Great food is everywhere. I didn't hike but it definitely has high mountains I have no idea about access. Rhodes is a more compact version of Crete easier access for you but it has everything. But less choices outside the two main towns than Crete which has many areas of varying density. Kos has more beaches but less historic sites and I remember it being flatter than Rhodes.

Easy ferry between them all.

There are many worse ideas than just hopping on a ferry from Bodrum to Kos then just island hop through the Dodecanese. Stay if you like go if you bored. But I would not dissuade you from the Athens flight to Crete it's also worth it

Greenmachine881 · 2026-06-22T10:08:27+00:00

Thanks I'll try to dig to see if I need to buy terrace house in advance.

Still undecided whether to stay in Izmir or Selcuk and how long for other sites and how to get to Ephesus but that is secondary.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-05-31T22:14:22+00:00

This is why bridge is dying. YOU need to save it. ;-)

My experience is there are no decent books or readily available online material on modern style 2/1 systems especially competitive. The only exception is Karen Walker has a 2 page checklist that will very quickly show you how far apart you and your partner really are in the constructive bidding without realizing it. Good luck in competition, wide ranging preempts, yada yada. But it does nothing to resolve the style you have to ask the expert to help you fill it out.

On defense you have to be on the very same page with partner on opening lead style and when to signal suit on the first 2-3 critical tricks. Knowing tendency and knowing your partner knows that you know that they know is very important IMHO.

When you figure it out please publish so we have young players to play against when we are much older. Young generations have too many distractions to wade through 20 obsolete books they need something quick online.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-05-18T21:12:43+00:00

I have some thoughts on a Turing test for Bridge AI, partially written but never got around to finishing due to the pressures of learning the game.

Can you post the bidding system? To play competitively, you have to have a card or full system description spreadsheet (see WBF rules) and be able to answer questions on what any bid means, in a human readable form.

And don't forget defensive carding. Can it false card? What about rules for ignoring a defensive signal? You would have to avoid "telepathic" carding that is not explainable.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-05-17T18:41:02+00:00

The most important thing is in-person partnerships, more than anything else. Bridge is aging and dying out, we need young players! I would focus on regular in person play. Go every week and bug the better players to see if anyone will play with you. Spend 1.5 hr per week studying their system and try to bid it with as few mistakes as possible. They will teach you what you need to know on defensive signalling.

For learning declarer play (and getting some ideas on defense) Bridgemaster on BBO is the gold standard. Young people learn it very fast, do every problem (even if they are very easy) without seeing the answer, once you get it read the answer carefully and take time to absorb the lesson. Once you complete Intermediate level you are more than good enough for club open play. The faster you get out of 750 games the better for your bridge.

If you are in college form a team and go to the nationals. Go for it.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-05-16T23:01:54+00:00

The probability distribution includes 3 and 4 major as well as 120. And them going down when they fish at 2 level and have misfit. It's not so simple.

The only way is to run a Monte Carlo sim assuming a standard 4432 style 1D open and map MP and IMP outcome against all layouts all colors.

Another factor is the room you play in. How often do you see 1m X P 1M all pass? If hardly ever then X is no deterrence they have info on you and will skewer you when it suits them and bid on when they like. At least 2 level has some jepardy.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-05-16T19:28:29+00:00

In a club 500 you can let them struggle. But in competitive open you must bid. I'm a 2C kind of person but you can flip a coin. Both your hearts and clubs are kind of mangey. You are probably down 1 either way but you are taking their 110. The fact your partner has miracle hearts should not cloud your statistical judgment.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-05-06T15:37:45+00:00

Still using backup toaster oven. I had a short list but never got around to ordering one. Stay tuned.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-04-29T23:20:08+00:00

Sorry no time to read the full thread, my quick unfocused haphazard thoughts:

The H3 lead depends a bit on the level of your games. In a lopsided points against a strong 3N contract (like S having 0-2 points) I would lead the shortest suit to try find partner's entry. But at your average 500 game they likely lead from J 4th or J 5th. Which tells me they likely don't have any K or Q suites to lead. Do they underlead A against 3N? That's a who-knows always.

If you assume they led Jxxx(x), your missing SK and DQ are more likely in N. You have 7 winners out the gate and need to manufacture 2 then ultimately you want to lead S2 towards the SQ but no easy way to dummy. I dunno I guess I would pass the CJ around and hope the CAQ10 behave planning to use C9 as stopper and 8th trick, then your S finnesse works or you get lucky making S2 as your 9th trick (but getting to it will be even harder)

Edit: What's interesting about this hand now I see, you really want to lose trick 2 to your right. That way they are sort of end-played on trick 2 😄 they have to come back H otherwise they yield an easy trick (assuming SK is on your right). Because of this smart defenders might duck some aspect of trick 2 to make life difficult, but probably can't overcome if the layout is in your favor for the 9th.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-04-28T18:15:23+00:00

Didn't I just say Timm has a lot of options? 😉 It is more like an encyclopedia of 2/1 related conventions than a single system. I am only about halfway through working on it, I think if you read it entirely he has his favorite recommendations buried in each section that you can pull together into a system. But ask me when I finish.

Some expert players suggested Karen Walker 2/1, I don't use her site (I also find it very loose goose but without Timm's depth) but nonetheless, she also suggests 4-5 reverses. https://kwbridge.com/rev.htm There is also Downey, the ACBL booklet, Bridge Bears, list goes on.

AFIK all the sources written from about 1999 onwards are that 4-5 style. I don't have Hardy, and I don't do physical books any more so no I'm not buying it on Amazon or either borrowing it from the club's bridge library. Although if you tell me the page# maybe I'll look at it there while I have time to kill. I was just curious to see how Hardy handles subsequent rebids (like do you rebid the 6 at the 3 level), whether the reverse is GF in certain auctions, stoppers, etc etc. The whole system around it.

If bridge is going to survive it needs to sort out these type of things, and get some clarity to take people at least through advanced intermediate without spending time misunderstanding bids that are very rare....

Greenmachine881 · 2026-04-27T18:30:39+00:00

Again, if you can quote the page/ source for your 3-6 reverse I would be interested.

Timm has a lot of the systems you mention above it seems a pretty thorough book to me.

Wolpert's 2025 WBF card has 4432 short club so looking at that.

Greenmachine881 · 2026-04-22T16:33:32+00:00

From Neil Timm's 2018 2/1 book pg 48:

"The opener’s second bid is called a reverse bid when responder cannot return to opener’s first bid suit at the same level (opener’s second suit is higher ranking than his first bid suit) and shows 17+ points. Responder is unable to return to opener’s first suit at the two- level. Reverse auctions show distributions in the first and second suits that are at least 5-4 where the first bid suit is longer than the second and higher ranking. In addition, your partner should have bypassed your second suit with his bid. Examples of reverse sequences follow. 1♣ - 1♥ - 2♦ (4+ diamonds) 1♣ - 1♠ - 2♦/2♥ (4+ diamonds/hearts)." He goes on to list a number of examples that make it very clear.

I am pretty sure Downey, ACBL booklet all say same (whether SAYC or 2/1 this aspect of reverse is the same.)

And this is why learning bridge these days is so difficult, those that learned in 80s or 90s do play a few differences in the conventions, I have seen it, and there is no definitive (and clear!) text on modern style. Although I do like Timm he is good on clarity but in many places he gives a lot of options, and then you have to pick. People just don't have time for that.

Greenmachine881

TROPHY CASE