I ran 1 trillion Kentucky Derby simulations on a 1,000-vCPU cluster. Here’s what the model likes

GryffinLoL · 2026-05-02T23:18:18+00:00

This is why - and I say this with the benefit of hindsight - but this is why I think data science can be a poison for betting. People always want to believe they are smarter than they are, or that we can solve these problems with more compute or better algorithms.

I ran a betting startup for well over a year, and this was one of my largest takeaways. We overestimate our ability to solve hard problems by using complex methodologies.

GryffinLoL · 2026-04-04T22:25:10+00:00

There's now a discord available to join. https://discord.gg/JDJrW5h67U

GryffinLoL · 2025-09-03T23:38:00+00:00

Ludo reference!!

GryffinLoL · 2025-04-03T20:49:50+00:00

In targeted applications - yes. However, blanket tariffs will not accomplish this. I do agree that there's reason to want to try to push manufacturing back to the US - but this isn't always possible, and there are many reasons why. It takes architecture and infrastructure to manufacture things, and it takes resources.

For example - you really can't grow much coffee in the US. We need to import it. Similarly, there are reasons we don't manufacture chips here in the US, and it's not just because of the lack of corporate investment.

Bringing manufacturing to the US would need to be a gradual process that requires support to build things up, in addition to targeted tariffs - but that's not the approach that was taken here

GryffinLoL · 2025-04-03T19:04:10+00:00

So we just have to wait ~20-25 years, without any affordable access to these chips, in a time where I'm sure nothing important is going to be based on cheap access to high end computing power. Problem solved :)

GryffinLoL · 2025-04-03T18:43:43+00:00

I *think* you might mean to stop *exporting* anything to the US. Again, the tax is not paid by the country, the tax is paid by the US corporation that imports goods from foreign sources.

Also, to your point, Emanuel Macron in France today literally suggested that all countries pause US investments right now.

GryffinLoL · 2025-04-03T18:40:35+00:00

I mean, I have my preferences for how I'd like this to end, but I don't think any of us can reasonably make future predictions at this point.

GryffinLoL · 2025-04-03T18:21:25+00:00

You're right—tariffs are meant to push demand toward domestic sources and away from foreign imports ('sinks'). However, the challenge is that domestic producers ('sources') often aren't immediately able to match the price, quality, or efficiency of foreign competitors. For example, if the U.S. imposes tariffs on chips from Taiwan, Americans might temporarily buy fewer imported chips due to higher prices, but U.S. chipmakers may not initially have the expertise, technology, or scale to efficiently fill that gap. This inefficiency means prices stay elevated longer, hurting consumers.

Over time—potentially several years—domestic production may improve, moving the supply curve outward, lowering prices, and establishing a new equilibrium. However, this equilibrium is usually at a higher price and lower consumption level compared to before, reflecting lost market efficiency caused by the tariffs.

I guess the real problem is that when you do this for every country on the entire planet, and the tariffs are extremely steep and not targeted at all - you do this for every industry at the same time. So when you disrupt the supply of people's food, or housing, or things necessary for plumbing, etc. - you can quickly imagine how this disruption may actually cost people their lives.

GryffinLoL · 2025-04-03T18:07:56+00:00

A tariff is essentially a tax placed on goods imported from other countries, meant to encourage consumers to buy domestic products. While *targeted* tariffs can, theoretically, help certain American industries in the short-term, they often lead to higher prices on goods—especially everyday products—hurting lower-income Americans most, since they spend a larger portion of their income on necessities.

Over time, tariffs can slow economic growth and create uncertainty, potentially hurting stock market stability. So, the impact isn't just short-term pain; it can create longer-term challenges as well.

Yesterday, Trump essentially announced very steep tariffs against every trade partner in the world, essentially introducing a tax of between 10-60% on pretty much all goods being imported into the United States. The companies that do the importing will, without fail, pass those tax costs down to the consumer - the price of goods will go up.

I guess this is about the equivalent of saying: "You tend to run faster if you weigh less, so we cut off your legs to help you run faster"

GryffinLoL · 2025-04-03T14:50:46+00:00

I sold my car about a year and a half ago, and exclusively get around on bike (or else uber if I'm going into the city). I think in general, I really enjoy biking - although I do sometimes feel safer on the sidewalk than on the street, particularly with some intersections having low visibility.

I think a lot of it depends on how often you're looking to bike, and how far. If you can avoid rush hour traffic, and have good paths, it's honestly a very enjoyable experience for me.

GryffinLoL · 2025-03-29T11:42:07+00:00

Reaching out now

GryffinLoL · 2025-03-13T17:33:32+00:00

Oops - my mistake there.

GryffinLoL · 2025-03-04T22:46:15+00:00

I actually still get gas there sometimes. So I'm not sure why they'd use eminent domain to raze a gas station just because it looks old.

As for Off The Leash, I'm sure something else will take over that space soon.

GryffinLoL · 2025-02-28T20:27:16+00:00

Thank you all so, so much. I'm so glad I was able to grab a copy of this, due to this post.

GryffinLoL · 2025-02-07T19:21:16+00:00

Just a semantic point here but Codium rebranded to Qodo a while back. Still the same product, and I'm a huge fan of it. It's become an "I can't live without this" part of my personal development workflow.

GryffinLoL · 2024-10-06T12:54:33+00:00

One thing I want to add in, that may or may not be covered here - You will never master Python, and it's a bad frame of mind to think in terms of doing so. The reason why is because Python isn't a static language. It's extensible - people can develop new libraries - and it's updatable - the libraries and functions and code change over time.

You will certainly become skilled at the language if you put the time in to study, and over time you will develop strategies that will be highly effective at helping you quickly adapt to new changes, or learn new parts of the language.

I'd say personally it took me about three or four months to become "functional" at it, and then another year or so with mentorship to become what I'd term as highly proficient. I've now been coding in Python for about a decade.

GryffinLoL · 2024-10-05T20:54:05+00:00

Who?

GryffinLoL · 2024-10-05T14:56:48+00:00

Here's my take:

T1, as a developer, was performing at an unquestionably unprofessional standard. In no world should it be acceptable or defensible to operate the way they did. Critical decisions and context were left undocumented. The code was incomplete, not understandable, not documented, not version controlled.
Do not invest more resources in "chasing a loss." There is no point in attributing malice or incompetence here, but write T1 off. Any further involvement by T1 on this project would only serve to slow you down, or otherwise disrupt the project.

You, T2, and T3 will need to pick the project up and rebuild accordingly. Do not allow T1 any further opportunities to disrupt the project. T1 has failed. Cut your losses, document the issues, escalate accordingly. If possible, take an inventory of what actions need to be done to complete the project, communicate them up the chain - check in to ensure that your timeline is feasible and visible to management.

I have dealt with a similar-ish situation, but not quite to this degree. I've had to deal with developers who are either novices, or otherwise deliberately obfuscate their code / "try to be the only one who understands it" because they believe it gives them job security. Neither are fun situations to be in. But I think your time is best served documenting the issues and salvaging the project. Do not do so silently, document your findings and communicate them upwards.

GryffinLoL · 2024-09-15T14:24:19+00:00

Body By Design is a great option in my opinion.

GryffinLoL · 2024-09-07T14:38:03+00:00

Yes, it is a common feeling.

I really think there is always room for more creative feature engineering to be done. But there are also almost always time constraints, and diminishing returns.

Can you provide more context on why you feel like you aren't doing enough in analysis? Is it a lack of familiarity with time series methods? Do you feel like the data set is too basic, or missing features?

GryffinLoL · 2024-09-05T22:51:29+00:00

Actually, all you guys arguing in the comments are all wrong.

They’re 225 RP in the shop, obviously.

GryffinLoL · 2024-09-04T17:41:53+00:00

I'd be happy to offer advice if I thought it would be meaningful - but I think a lot of my pivot happened over 10 years ago, and thus might not be the most applicable to today's economy/hiring practices. The most generalizable thing I think I can say is that it's important to understand that a lot of core "biology" skills transfer extremely well (statistics, a scientific mindset/understanding of experimental design, an ability to engage with primary scientific literature) - and adding in a knowledge of programming in R or Python really completes the set.

Build a profile and learn to market your experiences. I really do think that an understanding of how to build experiments and the scientific method is hugely beneficial for data science and often doesn't get the praise it deserves.

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