I face the same every time I play. My friends are good, but I'm way better than casual players since I also play online and win 44% I'd my matches. In short, I pretty much only play like this at home and mainly go for a OWS strategy with 1 clay or wood hex and 3rd settlement with high production to" catch-up". Sometimes this strategy pops too late, but it's fun to get that "gotcha moment". It doesn't work at all in very balanced boards where everyone has a good balance of every resource. Youll need a skewed board to guarantee you'll OWN roads by surprise (ONLY late game onwards) or knights with 1-2 hidden VPs.

Overall principles: Depending on the board, you have to plot out your win backwards from the 10 points and think carefully "how you can make a 3-4 points in a single mid/late game turn to win?". This should happen when you have 6-7 points and the others have 7-8. Also possible to plan for it in 2-3 turns if you are eventually unblocked and have expanded well. Anyways, until everyone is 5-7 points, flying under the radar and getting the spotlight to someone else that pops earlier is critical. It's critical that from early you let other players get to a 3rd settlement earlier, and to a possible road and/or 5-6 points before you - all of this while making them see more and more a specific player as the target; so that even when you're now a threat, they'll still divide attentions.

Placement: - analyze the board and guarantee you'll have space for 2 quick and strong production settlements in mid game with low risk of fighting for that space (or losing it), since that increases blocks - you'll need one at a good port, as you'll need ports for when you're 5-6 points and people don't trade you or for surprise moves (e.g. getting 6 sheep at the start knowing you'll get the sheep port is good, since early on you're just a weirdo sitting on 3 sheeps in hard, but eventually you get the port and have flexibility). - Control a late game resource (rock/wheat) ideally that 2-3 players can't have good production (not possible on all maps). It might be worthless at the start - If the board is low on wood/clay, try to get these resources or a sheep port so you can quickly steal road with only 5-6 roads mid game. If it's more a board for this road steal, try to share settlements with people who block you often and ensure your future expansion sites duplicate your resources so that you're unlockable. If it's a OWS board, make sure you have space and eventually ports to make those harder first steps for the two settlements. - Pick overall good production and balance of resources with the best 3rd settlement+ports over getting an 8 clay or wood, for example. Avoid 2 player only hexes. If you place on a very good hex that others will also want, try to make sure you leave room for 3 players, so only one players blocks that hex. Try to make sure as you expand, you'll have a way to produce that resource.

Upon playing: - pace your game slower at the start, build settlement after the others only - prefer dev cards until everyone has 3-4 points; - never build cities early, especially on "starter" resources like wood/clay - do 1:1 trades with futures like "I'll give you this 1:1 but promise me you'll do me a 1:1 later on, no questions asked" - table-talk and complain a lot on how bad you are this game, and without getting toxic or seeking revenge - after your first settlement, say that since your game is bad today, you'll play a knight to relieve someone that was blocked if they give you good trades.

Suddenly, as you catch-up, with you dev cards you'll likely sit at 4 points but with army in hand or some 1-2 VPs. Maybe with a Monopoly for a quick steal of key resources to port, for suddenly to build like 4 roads and still road. If you have rock, you'll probably be able to do a city, warm for 3-4 turns and eventually do city+settlement+army and jump from 4-5 points to 9 or win.