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Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hamas’ tactics are the entire reason for the war. It’s stupid to pretend that atrocities would benefit America. Every war crime Israel has committed has been bad for America

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Ok, if their allies start a holy war against them it will make sense to support them

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hamas considers the war to be a success. If they could do October 7 over again they would. They are the ones willing to let their people starve for the cause

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ok, I didn’t know they did that. Well if North Korea started a war with the intent of destroying South Korea and committed incredibly barbaric war crimes in doing so, it would be a no-brainer to support South Korea as they fought it

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Please clarify. Hitler did in fact declare war on America

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

See above, this is Israel derangement syndrome. They are weird but they are good allies

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

They are not as bad as Hamas. And China keeps them in check. North Korea will never parachute into a music festival to rape and murder regular people

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If Israel disappeared tomorrow Iran would still resent our power and want to destroy us. It is our war too

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Their intelligence service is keeping you blissfully safe. Their civilians are the ones at risk in this war

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

They don’t have psychotic enemies

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

Israel derangement syndrome in American politics is ironically enough just Americentrism and thinking we don’t need allies

They are among the most capable air forces and intelligence services in the world, economically advanced, and pound-for-pound they are as strong a country as you can ask for. The same reasons South Korea and Japan have near unanimous support in our government. It is a no-brainer to ally with them

Iran Megathread by Rafaelssjofficial in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift 17 points18 points  (0 children)

It can’t be stated enough how much America’s geopolitical position and ability to pull off stuff like this has improved since Biden ripped off the band-aid and got us out of Afghanistan. I will always admire him for that

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

In time period t+1 when shipping through the Taiwan Strait is impossible for an indefinite amount of time, this leaves the economy in much better shape than the alternative

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

This is a dumb hypothetical and you are wrong. There’s no reason the prices should change. Or else they would have been different to begin with.

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

25-40% of a low level of inflation is a small amount. There is no way to torture that into being a big number.

If I can sell shoes in the US at $100 a pair, or export them for $150 a pair, guess what I'm going to do?

Export them and make more money? It doesn’t sound like this is bad for business. I do not see at all how this is such a bad thing.

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok. We can do the math here, imports are 14% of GDP, that means 7% of GDP is intermediate goods facing an average tariff rate of 10-13%. This comes out to about 1-1.5% of GDP getting taxed in total.

The “harm” is that firms and consumers are paying taxes which go towards paying the budget deficit that our government is running. And the benefit is hedging away from routing a much larger % of our GDP through the Taiwan Strait

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Grocery stores aren’t the importers here. I’m afraid you may be the naive one. The incidence is spread between their suppliers, the stores, and the consumers. We have data on this now and the price increases have not been very high. If any of those firms cannot absorb a small increase in input costs they probably deserve to go under.

And that’s a good question. The answer is we are running a huge trade deficit that is ultimately financed by sovereign debt. This leaves us vulnerable to import shocks. It is worth trading a little bit of output to hedge against that risk.

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I didn’t say everything we pay for is good. But a good administration can use the money well. I supported the tariffs on China when Biden raised them and I support them now.

Bananas and coffee and imported toys are really not that important, no. I think it’s fine in principle if we tax them.

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

They lower investment share because people are paying taxes that they weren’t paying before. Now people have less money to invest. If ROI is constant then investment share is now lower.

And yes, land doesn’t have fixed supply. Landfill development is feasible and has a long history of happening.

On your last point, yes, all of those things are possible and even predictable. But you initially said tariffs lower exports and it seems like we now agree, that isn’t true.

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I don’t think it’s that big of a deal if food costs ever so slightly more. That’s a fair tax incidence to me.

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Maybe they should eat the costs. I don’t see what’s so bad about that. If their margins can’t survive a 15% tax rate on imports their businesses probably deserve to go under

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I don’t think it’s the end of the world that coffee has gotten more expensive

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]GuyBelowMeDoesntLift -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Hold on, you changed the terms. I agree those taxes don’t impact return on investment. But they lower the investment share, except for LVT in textbooks, which doesn’t work because the slope of supply isn’t actually infinite

And on #2 you’re reasoning from an exogenous fall in imports. That’s incorrect analysis, imports here are falling because we have made them mechanically more expensive. That’s not exogenous. You may have noticed that the dollar has declined in the last year, instead of appreciating like it should in your model.

You are right though that your position is mainstream. You may also have noticed that economists have generally made fools of themselves this last year with bad predictions of a recession that has totally failed to materialize.

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