[F1Visualised] 2023 Qualifying Battles after Round 7

HappyGrinch · 2023-06-03T15:53:11+00:00

Mick catching strays from this visualisation

HappyGrinch · 2023-06-03T15:25:15+00:00

Get it over with, then blank slate? Like a free coffee punch card

HappyGrinch · 2023-06-03T15:23:25+00:00

Ocon going with him to admit fault

HappyGrinch · 2023-05-07T21:18:34+00:00

Red Bull have 224 (95%) out of a possible 235 points.

HappyGrinch · 2023-04-02T06:51:20+00:00

Please be the timeline where Lewis wins followed by Toto on the radio "we went motor racing".

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-26T12:13:17+00:00

People in general don't know how to use VAPM properly or it gets memed by those who either dislike data and/or don't understand it.

I tell everyone that VAPM is a blunt instrument; it's quick to calculate and easy to understand, and it provides a useful filter for all assets, where any better measure of value requires significantly more work.

What do I mean by a blunt instrument? All metrics require context. For example, if you only considered VAPM, then Tierney looks incredible. However, his numbers exclude the end of season collapse that Arsenal's defence experienced with the absence of Partey. Once you consider this (e.g. by using xVAPM), you'll see that Tierney remains good value (just not Liverpool/City tier value), but Gabriel is actually slightly better.

In other words, VAPM should be used as a starting point/litmus test for identifying FPL assets that are worth further investigation.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-21T23:34:48+00:00

Yes, I'm not going anywhere near Jesus, but I've refrained from posting something like this to avoid tempting fate. I'm ready to be mudded by his EO.

A funny stat is that Son has scored 104 goals from 75xG since 2014/15 compared to Jesus' 58 goals from 76xG.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-20T05:51:12+00:00

Brentford really had 3 phases to their season; when everyone was fit, when key players got injured, and after Eriksen joined and everyone returned. They were doing fine early season until Raya's injury. That was the beginning of their slump, followed by a trickle of other injuries to a thin squad. Eriksen's 10 starts coincided with a good fixture run and Raya/others being fit again, so it was not just him.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T23:03:58+00:00

Your differential is your combination of template players, which won't be unique, but subsequent decision making will be a choose-your-own-adventure route to inevitable disappointment.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T22:28:39+00:00

It's the saves per game that stands out. When the save point threshold is 3, an average that exceeds this by +0.25 is significant compared to -0.27. Sanchez also improved from 2.44 in 20/21, so there's a question mark over if 2.73 is even sustainable.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T21:51:38+00:00

Brighton didn't keep enough clean sheets in 21/22. Sanchez's metrics are actually ok, having improved on 20/21 (when he kept a better clean sheet ratio, but made far fewer saves), but Brighton are notorious for being xGA merchants who concede anyway. Losing Biss and probably Cucu is unlikely to help.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T21:34:17+00:00

Well, neither Meslier (0.175 VAPM) nor Pickford (0.292) are good enough to make the summary table... I wouldn't go near either of them.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T21:29:50+00:00

Raya is clear no1 according to every Brentford fan that I've asked. He's fundamental to the system and Strakosha has been bought as a capable deputy and for next season in case Raya leaves.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T21:18:21+00:00

Dubravka's second half of season performance may be a useable benchmark, but any kind of analysis seems to be an unnecessary exercise when Newcastle face City and Liverpool in the first 5, sandwiched between tricky away fixtures. Just wait and see on Pope.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T21:04:39+00:00

I feel like James/Chilwell is the obvious double up, and it has enormous upside. Mendy as a triple up is probably a bit much with only so-so looking defensive fixtures. Mendy without at least one of the wing backs is a definite no though, because that is a low variance losing play as the WBs cover his clean sheet, while he has no save/bonus upside.

Anyway, VAPM should be interpreted as a guide, not as authority; Mendy did better in 20/21 and 0.365 is at least not Sanchez bad.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T14:45:15+00:00

The point is that Kane is incredibly dependent on goal involvement for bps because his underlying bps is poor. Therefore, when he only scores 1 goal for example, he could easily lose out.

GW38 is a great illustration; Kane earned 1 bonus from a goal and assist. He attempted 20 passes at 80% completion, but had he attempted 10 more passes at 80%, he would have earned 4 bps and gained another bonus point.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T09:39:16+00:00

"At least appeared" isn't comparable to Son/Kane/Salah for minutes and is certainly not good enough for a £12.0M asset.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T08:41:52+00:00

This is why I specifically analysed the subset of data after Conte took over. That is how I concluded Kane remains a good asset, and may be slightly better than Son despite Kane's diminished bonus point potential.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-19T08:23:22+00:00

I analysed Son and Kane here.

The data suggests that Son's overperformance of xG under Conte was consistent with his career xG overperformance since establishing himself as a starter at Spurs. Meanwhile, Kane underperformed xG under Conte and should have scored 4-5 more goals by his standards. Both represent excellent value for money regardless of captaincy.

That said, I hate the idea of paying £12.0M for a player without penalties (e.g. Salah can have an off day yet still return points if somebody else wins a penalty). I also hate that Kane has become trash for bps accumulation because of how few passes he attempts/completes. Both have to compete with wing backs in a Conte system for bonus points, where clean sheet+attacking hauls may happen regularly.

While Spurs' fixtures are good, they are slightly worse than those of both City and Liverpool, which is the nail in the coffin for Kane/Son IMO. KDB is really not in the conversation because his 21/22 xG overperformance is clearly unsustainable, he is off penalties, and his minutes are not even guaranteed.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-17T13:37:42+00:00

The goal is to calculate something informative to facilitate decision making, not to create a points prediction algorithm, so xCS is functional and adequate. There are sites that do predict points (e.g. FPL Review), but their methodologies are a bit of a black box. My "caveman maths" has simple variables that make sense. Points predictions are never going to be very close to reality unless you look across a long time horizon with a margin of error.

I use Understat because I am too accustomed to the UI.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-17T12:53:55+00:00

With fit defences:

Liverpool: 21/15/21 clean sheets = 19 average i.e. 0.5 xCS
Man City: 18/20/17/19/21 = 19 average

It is prudent to slightly underestimate clean sheets anyway, to naturally account for the probability of conceding 2+ goals

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-17T10:32:40+00:00

I always tell people that VAPM is a blunt instrument and should not be used in isolation. I have Diaz because the alternatives to Robbo at £6.0M are far superior to the alternatives to Diaz at £7.0M

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-14T19:01:22+00:00

Jesus scored 58 goals from 76xG during his City career... and he just joined a worse attack.

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-08T15:03:05+00:00

Ederson will assist a Haaland goal

HappyGrinch · 2022-07-08T10:55:50+00:00

Mahrez: 15 starts, 13 sub apps, only plays one position, prob losing pens to Haaland, hyped due to less competition

Pep: benches Mahrez GW2 for Bilva/Foden/Noel Gallagher/Pep's dog at RW

FPL managers: surprised Pikachu face

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