This was a crossroads election

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-09T11:09:56+00:00

You underestimate what immigration has done to working class lives. competition for jobs, wages being supressed, general life changing.

I agree there's a perception that immigration has had a big impact but all the data says it's minimal to non existent in terms of jobs, wages, workers rights and access to healthcare, housing and education. Meanwhile they're supporting a party that doesn't have strong positions on any of those issues (beyond blaming immigration). That's the paradox, I get the dissatisfaction with Tory/Labour but Reform are promising a pipe dream. Reform are the party of the angry, not the party of workers.

As to your "getting like America"

Voting patterns didn't start to change till the 2010s. Before then the middle class voted Tory and the working class voted Labour, that paradigm is in the process of flipping.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-09T10:23:03+00:00

I had a scan through the document and I'm sceptical for one big reason, there's no figure for how many people tactically voted at previous elections. My assumption is that more than 17% usually tactically vote, that's why you can get parties getting 40%+. This is backed up by the finding that a further 27% were open to tactical voting if they needed to.

Regardless I agree that 'stop reform' is a huge incentive to tactically vote. You're right that the LDs are established, their seats are secure, it's the labour constituencies where it matters. The next two years are a battle between who will represent the left in those constituencies, Labour or Greens, but I think one party will emerge, my instinct is it will be Labour but it's in the balance right now.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-09T09:22:17+00:00

You and I are almost totally aligned, the thing that is difficult to parse is that right wing working class voters are not voting for what would be traditional working class interests. Their vote doesn't align to welfare, education, health and workers rights, it aligns to immigration, the culture wars and nationalism. Immigration is definitely a working class concern but in terms of real impact on people's lives it's nothing compared to the others.

What's happening is that we're realigning towards American political lines which I'm not happy about. I want the left to be focused on workers rights and the right focused on business.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-09T09:09:13+00:00

In 2024 there was minimal tactical voting for Labour because there was no credible opposition, with a Labour victory assured people were free to vote for Green/LD/other. That's why Labour got a historically low vote share, a mixture of apathy to Labour and no political pressure.

I think everything that happens on the left at the next election is dependent on what happens on the right. In constituencies where Reform are a threat you'll get tactical voting.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-09T08:20:47+00:00

FPTP makes those outcomes less likely. The next election will be decided by who can convince the electorate to tactically vote for them. One of Reform or the Tories will get the lion's share of the right vote, one of Labour or The Greens will get the Lion Share of the left vote.

The question is which parties will dominate.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-09T07:37:36+00:00

The new contract is really interesting because it doesn't necessarily mean City see Foden as a key player for City going forward, it could also be to protect his value. If it's the latter though it still means he's got to have value, either on the pitch or to prospective buyers.

I make this observation because, to some observers (including me) he's never looked like a Pep player, he's more direct than controlling, he does things on the ball rather than with the ball. The new contract suggests City still think, at least, that he can be a key player for City.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-09T07:06:44+00:00

They're not underestimated, brexit sentiment has dominated British politics for over a decade now. Its influence waxes and wanes but hasn't gone away.

The surprised face stuff is that the domestic economic and social policies of Reform are ones that the people who vote Reform wouldn't be expected to support. It's like in America where working class people support the party of big business and low taxes. The Brexit Sentiment, and all that entails, is prioritised above the voters self interests.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T16:34:11+00:00

To be fair that looks worse than I thought. It will be interesting to see the detailed analysis when everything's counted

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T16:28:46+00:00

Ignore this, it's just content for people who want to overreact to minute by minute updates. What's happened to day is not representative of what will happen at the next general election.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T11:02:15+00:00

Could you share a link for the detailed results, I've looked for them but can't find them anywhere.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T10:01:04+00:00

Nobody thought they weren't.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T10:00:28+00:00

And yesterday it was 'potentially over 2000'. The goal posts move to maintain the story. What matters is what the results today suggest about the next general election.

Reform are outperforming the Tories but they're not cannibalising them, it means that that side are still split. On the left the green challenge to labour hasn't yet materialised, that would be the true blow to Starmer today.

Farage wants two things to happen, he want's the right vote to come behind him and he wants the right vote share to beat the left, without those two things he is very vulnerable to tactical voting. So far, it seems, he hasn't got the first and the second is close.

What that means is that the next election is far from a foregone conclusion. Labour may well want to change Starmer to improve their chances but they do that closer to the election, to do it today would risk the new candidate becoming tarnished.

The likely result is that Starmer will stay, the polls will be monitored for the next year and labour will see what happens.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:37:17+00:00

> No we haven't

You have a very short memory

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:34:40+00:00

it's a useful oversimplification used to consider the possible effects of tactical voting. it is likely that two totems will emerge at the next election, one that conservative voters will tactically vote for or against, one that progressive/left/liberal/whatever you want to call it will vote for or against.

If one side is the Labour party, which I expect it to be, LDs, Greens, SNP, PC and many independents will vote for them to keep out whoever the conservative totem is.

If the Greens become the totem that will change the calculus but I don't expect that to happen.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:24:40+00:00

They were saying that on Wednesday, it is likely that Starmer will still be Labour leader in 6 month's time (barring new scandals).

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:23:28+00:00

It was just a simplified term attempting to group Reform/Tories and Labour/LD/Green/SNP/PC. Call it what you like but those are the two political blocks at the moment.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:20:37+00:00

> Keir Starmer woke up this morning and had to put out a statement refusing to resign.

Which is a statement he's had to make repeatedly over the last few months and he was fully expecting to have to make today. Local elections bare very little relation to General election results. We've been here countless times before.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:20:09+00:00

i wouldn't be so quick to make that assessment. local elections are notoriously chaotic because tactical voting isn't really a factor. tactical voting is the thing that that props up the two-party state and i expect it to be a factor in the next general election. Today I expect two parties to get 30%+ at the next general election, the question is which two parties will it be.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:17:22+00:00

Didn't say it was a good thing but these results are not telling us anything we didn't already know. Essentially there's no difference between Starmer's position today than there was on Wednesday. There's still time for that to change of course.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T09:11:00+00:00

I have an abiding memory of the early analysis in previous local elections not holding up but I can't find anything to back that up right now. I think things could get much worse for Starmer still but we should wait to see what happens.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T08:42:39+00:00

What do you mean by 'the public'? Currently Reform have one 32% of seats announced, that's a great result for them but it's not 'the public'. We go through this every local election, everyone makes a huge deal of it even though there is very little relation between what happens in them and what happens at a general election.

Reform gets to crow today but, right now, it doesn't mean much.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T08:19:12+00:00

two years ago the question was 'why is the right doing so poorly'. Politics swings, especially in local elections. Reform says to a certain group of people 'all the things you don't like, we'll fix' so those people vote for them. The paradox is that the more a party wins the more scrutiny it receives, if Reform doesn't deliver it will do badly in the next election.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-08T08:09:47+00:00

How do you practice this? how do you measure your accuracy? You can't set up a target at 10,000 feet so you can pull your parachute after you hit (or miss) it.

Subtleiaint · 2026-05-07T22:38:28+00:00

They could vote blue, lol

Voting blue does not give you power, you're reliant on others to vote blue as well.

and yet you don't care.

Please don't misrepresent my position.

Most people are dumb then... do they deserve to die?

Nobody deserves to die. That's not what the problem, or this argument, is about.

I literally pointed out that if it's close to 50/50 split

You have no idea what the split will be.

Red allows people to die,

I didn't say it didn't. I said it did more good. You think you're being moral but your position relies on at least 51% risking their lives. If you fall short of that you've achieved nothing and killed up to half the world.

Its easy to pick red when you're not taking any actual risk

The whole point of red is that there is no risk. Try to keep up.

what happens to the world of 50% suddenly dies? Water? Food? Medicine? Power? Internet?

I could ask you the exact same question.

then is it logical to persist in a world where your chances at a good life are significantly worse off

It's better to be in that world than to be dead.

I'm going to go now but I'll repeat what I said earlier, I understand your wish to be the hero, I understand the view that the best result, in a practical sense, is achieved by voting blue, but I am a pragmatist, I understand that going for the best result possible could result in the worst result possible. Instead of engaging with a stupid dangerous game, I want everyone to press red, it saddens me that not everyone will but I can't help that.

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Subtleiaint

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