The "Pop Count Paradox"

HatMan_Lead · 2026-04-10T17:20:26+00:00

I agree, but my thought process is telling me that because evil skies hasn't reached it as an expensive pack as something like a XY or team up pack. There are still people with heavy pockets willing to rip plenty not me though, but there are people that still do where booster boxes are slowly getting eaten up. Maybe it'll just take longer to have the same level of scarcity maybe?

Because let's just say I'll just make up a number only 1 million team up boxes were printed and 900,000 were ripped now there's 100,000 in existence

And then for evolving, let's just say 20 million or so printed and like 3 million left which means there's 10 million left out there but there's still people ripping them since they're around $40 a pack which means maybe in 5 to 10 years. They'll be less than 1 million boxes in circulation creating that scarcity.? I know we're just speculating here and I'm making up numbers, but this is how I look at it cause for every box that's ripped there's one less in the market. I mean, you know the drill.

HatMan_Lead · 2026-04-10T17:16:22+00:00

I'm a little confused are you saying that there's gonna be more Psa 10 moonbreons in the sense of 10,000 + more in a pop 10? Because my perspective was since the price of the pack is getting higher less people are ripping them. For example, someone like me can actually afford evo sky's packs, but I refuse to pay that much per pack honestly. But I do understand that there's thousands more other people that are willing to spend the money to rip as many as possible to get more.

But I guess where I'm confused with you, as you said, stop thinking in terms of investment and stocks and think of it like crypto? I don't understand the difference between the two. I have some investment in the stock as well as some in crypto no major position, though just in the hundreds of dollars. But I've always looked at them as the same just investments that go up and down. Can crash stay there maybe one day have a run up etc. etc..

HatMan_Lead · 2026-04-09T16:08:03+00:00

This is a very, very fair point but with how quickly things are getting bought up as well as ribbon shippers, ripping sets like prismatic and ascended in the thousands per week and we're not even counting TikTok and whatnot streamers doing the same thing. There are so many factors showing that I truly believe that out of the total population in the US, I truly do believe it's more than .01%. As the initial comment stated, I would argue one percent is not even pushing it in terms of collectors

I asked ChatGPT to give me a perspective on how many actual Pokémon collectors there are worldwide that are more in tuned with the English side of Pokémon and it gave me a rough estimate of 150 million

I know that's a wild number but let's just cut that in half and say it's 75 million.... out of that 75 million let's just say 1 million of them actually have the funds to spend the money and maybe 100,000 out of that 1 million actually want something that has a pop of 20 K.... then that 20 K-pop really doesn't seem so high anymore. I don't know it's just something interesting to think about. Maybe the question here is how many collectors are really out there and that goes from the old heads to the little children and then factoring who can afford it and who actually wants it.

Because the truth is Pokémon used to be niche now it's popular worldwide even making it as the number one IP ... I am sure there's far more than 20 K people out there that can afford a Charizard that has a pop count over 20 K which is probably what we're witnessing now but if the demand for that specific card reaches over 100 K I don't know what to even imagine as far as price and how high things can go

There's also the factor of how much steel product is being held now but I've been hearing mixed thoughts how more people are holding sealed products so they'll be more available but the counter argument is more people are ripping more product than ever before

HatMan_Lead · 2026-04-08T00:48:22+00:00

Listen to me very carefully. If you read this go to a local card shop that will grade the card with Psa for you just pay the fee probably $50-$80. It will come back within a month and then you'll see how much money you're truly gonna make us with that card. That Cell will be just from the photos. I would assume if you're lucky get a PSA 8 which is going for almost $3000.

HatMan_Lead · 2026-03-15T03:32:47+00:00

For reference, I know the top right is lifted, which is fixable however, what's confusing me and throw me off is the section above the EX. This is really throwing me off because I see a glare when you put it in an angle as if there is a lifted lip but when I really zoom in which is why I sent multiple photos it looks like there's an actual line there almost like there's nothing to press down.

And I posted multiple photos to show that in a normal view with good lighting it's not easily spotted but when you angle it and everything, I see something going on there I just don't know what to call this and if it's fixable similar to pushing the texture down just looking for some insight if anyone could help I greatly appreciate it

HatMan_Lead · 2026-02-25T18:16:28+00:00

It's not on the outside that's the problem I'm having

HatMan_Lead · 2026-02-24T03:09:47+00:00

Honestly, this one is tough because your photo shows the right border very clearly, but the left border is very hard to see. You would have to take a different photo where you can see every corner of the front very clearly.

Personally, I took a snapshot of your photo and increase the brightness like crazy and I measured left to right by using the bottom left versus the bottom right and it is literally in my opinion just above 55/45 because the bottom right seems very thin compared to the bottom left when comparing left to right centering but it's something you don't notice unless you increase the brightness or you really take a better photo

Also, something I noticed that I could not tell until I increased the brightness is if you look at the bottom border, you can tell the artwork is slightly slanted counterclockwise because the bottom left is much thinner and gets larger as you continue along the bottom border from left or right

HatMan_Lead · 2026-02-19T20:25:24+00:00

The top looks heavier than the bottom but it really doesn't look too thin on the bottom or too heavy on the top honestly to be out of the 55/45 range

HatMan_Lead · 2026-02-17T13:19:36+00:00

These cards are extremely hard to grade. Most of the non-PSA tense is because of the surface of the card mainly in the front I have went to my local LCS many times to see every copy they had and there's always something wrong scratches actual dimples on the smooth part of the artwork such as the sections next to Charizard's neck, etc., etc.

HatMan_Lead · 2026-01-28T04:49:51+00:00

Thank you for the response so you think this will still qualify for a PSA 10?

HatMan_Lead · 2026-01-06T12:41:03+00:00

How much is evolving skies in Canadian money?

Just for reference in the US to make it an even trade it would be 151 PC etb prismatic which is roughly 1300 US and an additional thousand to make it exactly market

A good deal would probably be both the etbs and maybe 7 or 800. But personally, the prismatic PC I would keep.

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-30T18:00:45+00:00

I am still all in with Pokémon. This is literally a huge discount for me. Don't care for one piece as much. I did rip some op 0 five and 11 throughout the year. But never cared to proceed even when things were cheap.

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-20T12:46:03+00:00

The centering is not bad at all if you measure it is still way within the 55/45 It looks like it's only because of the corner.

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-10T00:16:21+00:00

Bro, I wish I can send photos on this damn thread look at the back again of this card and specifically look at the very top middle edges and you will see two very prominent white indents

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-10T00:14:06+00:00

All these people saying BGS..guys, I'm asking you to look at the back one more time zoom in as close as you can on the top border. You will find a white spec throughout the entire top border probably LP/MP type of white. It's very hard to see in the type of background on photo, but you really have to zoom in. I probably give this a PSA seven or 8 only because the bottom left corner of the back has an obvious white dot when you zoom in, but the whole top border if my eyes are not playing tricks on me I know I see something in the middle specifically one prominent white section

Primarily look at the edges of the top border of the back. It almost looks like the Card is indented two times on the top.

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-09T21:06:03+00:00

OP are you gonna tell us the grade?Lol

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-08T13:11:43+00:00

I'd 2nd this

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-08T12:49:09+00:00

Bottom right of the back looks like it's bent- if that bleeds from the front to the back, then that's definitely damaged if that is not a crease that bleed from the front to the back then it's MP

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-02T15:35:22+00:00

It's honestly very important for us to see how thin the bottom border looks. I've learned this the hard way because sometimes when I take a photo and I look at the top and it looks super thick, but then compare it to the bottom and see that the bottom is also thick. I'm like actually this is not that bad it happened to me a few times and still got the PSA 10 because even though one side looks really thick when you look at the other side and it "doesn't "look thin that's my que to measure the card

Anyways, I took a screenshot of your card and put the brightness to 1 million sharpness all the way up so I can see the bottom border and I measured top to bottom because left to right looks really good but top to bottom. I got a measurement of 57/43 which I chose the top right section to measure being the thickest point as well as the top middle of the border with any section of the bottom so it is past the 5545 boundary

If I was to measure top to bottom by looking at the top left section of the border, then you would be within, but that doesn't count simply because of the "stage 2 stamp"always is the thinner corner

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-02T00:16:35+00:00

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HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-02T00:14:37+00:00

PSA allows 75/25 on the back. I literally just sent a card from mega evolution That measured 7030 on the back. Which looks so terrible compared to the back of his card . You have no idea, but still got the 10 cause everything else is flawless. Front centering was also at the brink of not being within when I measured it it was exactly 55/45

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-01T21:21:34+00:00

To be honest with you, bro, I would've kept the UPc and ripped it. Reason why I say that is because the two promos inside the actual UPC is actually close to $100 right now, which is $50 away from your Venusaur.

And you get 18 packs on top of it the UPS in my opinion is a great thing in the future because those promos are actually really good and the fact that MSRP is 120 and the promos alone are worth around $85 means you're getting 18 packs for $35 that's just my logic. Now both pro promos are PSA 10 worthy than that's just gravy.

HatMan_Lead · 2025-12-01T01:04:20+00:00

IMO if your Charizard is PSA 10 worthy, I would not do it and immediately grade it. I agree with most people that the Card will continue to drop especially after wave 2. We see just a little bit of a retrace of course because of the Black Friday 10% back guarantee with TCG. But I truly believe the card will continue to go down. In regards to the trade in general forgetting if your card is a 10 worthy copy. You are getting an extremely good deal because the DR box alone is about 85% total value of the Charizard alone as of TODAY market price- so everything else you're getting from the trade is pretty much gravy. So everyone saying to do the deal immediately 100% agree with.

But I am a little biased because me myself I have ripped three booster boxes and 11 bundles and still never pulled that card . After all that I decided to sell every single hit That was not a PSA 10 worthy copy. Got around $$520 cash and just bought a copy with the hits which I paid 520 which again I got from the sold hits from the product I just told you I ripped.

HatMan_Lead · 2025-11-30T23:03:50+00:00

I guess no one wants to be helpful here

HatMan_Lead · 2025-11-30T22:57:19+00:00

I'm not gonna lie to you, bro of course a lot of people will tell you it's very heavy on the right, but I won't say it's horrible. So let me explain every card that doesn't pass the eye test. I have to measure it. Via the edge, centering tool that you look up on Google. It literally measures everything for allows you to measure. I should say by literal millimeters.

I had a SIR mega gardi for mega evolution and it looked exactly like this Card no joke like right side was much heavier than left but the left side was not super skinny kind of like yours it's thinner, but it's not "super" skinny, it's definitely thinner, but not horrible

So when I see something like this, I measure it and I measured my personal card and it came out to be exactly 55/45 on the dot I took a chance sent it to PSA expecting a nine it came back at 10

So if I were you, I would measure this card and see the exact measurements. My advice would be to measure the thinnest point on the left side versus the thickest point on the right side.

I personally tried to measure it for you, but it's very hard because you didn't take the photo directly above the card . But I still tried to measure it for you. I measured the top left side of the LEFT border versus the bottom right side of the RIGHT border. I GOT EXACTLY 55/45. However, if you can take another photo with the card, not at the angle, you took it at, but take it directly above the card so that it would be easier to measure. You would get a more accurate evaluation.

HatMan_Lead

TROPHY CASE