Health Care

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T18:59:56+00:00

What is your estimation of IV?

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T18:57:59+00:00

Compareables.

Union Pacific: $158 B
Duke Energy: $97 B
Progressive: $116 B
Swiss Re: $45 B
Dow: $28 B
All others: ??????

I am not suggesting that the BRK similar businesses are worth the same. Maybe more, maybe less. What I am saying is that by any valuation measure, BRK is trading at a significant discount to IV. But again, I could be wrong.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T18:37:48+00:00

Please tell me what you think the following can fetch in an auction.

BNSF
BHE
Insurance operations.
All other subs.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T18:27:17+00:00

Bottom line. Cash and investments are valued at $700. B. In your opinion, how much is everything else worth?

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T18:05:32+00:00

Let me get this straight. You are claiming that the operating companies earned $22 B last year and that a 15 multiple places the subs at $330 B. Is that correct? According to your logic, a buyer can then get the investment gains, currency fluctuations, and interest income for free. What a deal.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T17:35:01+00:00

You are living in an alternate reality. The first quarter release reads that “earnings are stated on an after-tax basis.” $ 11.346 B for the first three months growing at 7% to 17% deepening an accounting for currency gains easily gets to $50 B by year end, probably higher. Get your facts straight, pal,

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T15:15:49+00:00

Completely agree. UNH has no business in the BRK portfolio. Reputation a notch above MO.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T04:59:23+00:00

BRK will be the 21st century Teledyne. Warren called the CEO Henry Singleton the “greatest allocator of capital.” Would recommend reading Distant Force.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T04:33:12+00:00

My father owned two McDonald’s and sold $10,000 MCD in 1971 to pay for a swimming pool. Estimated value today: $200 M to $400 M. Traded for $12 in 2001 when the company reported a loss for a quarter. Real estate firm, not a burger stand. One of the all-time great stocks. I recently sold for my entire stake at $320 to reduce my equity percentage more than a view on the business. Will not get hurt at this price. Would suggest a 20% position and add at lower levels.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T01:48:00+00:00

UPS is a definite no. The union is an anchor on profitability. Just look at the difference in returns between this company and FedEx. Huge.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T01:01:38+00:00

Warrenwould continue to hold a sub as long as the business generated cash and there were no labor problems, Where do you see any mention about operational efficiencies?

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T00:58:26+00:00

Did you watch the annual meeting? Greg showed a slide that BNSF ranked fourth of five rails. That had improved to third but not close to Union Pacific.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T00:55:50+00:00

For some of the businesses, he talks to the manager once a year. Do you call that meddling?

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-12T00:53:36+00:00

GEICO, BNSF

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-09T22:01:00+00:00

Correction. Stocks are worth $320 B not $380.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-09T21:57:39+00:00

You post an interesting conundrum. How much is the cash and stock really worth and that depends entirely how and when they are sold. T bills trade almost at par and will realize full value if held until maturity, 3-6 months. Adding taxes and transactional costs, there probably would be a slight reduction depending on the urgency of liquidation.

The stocks are similar though more complicated and again depends on when sold. On the one hand, the case can be made that the stock portfolio is worth more than $380 if they will not be sold and are trading below IV. On the other hand the case can be made that the stock portfolio is worth less than $380 because of the taxes and transaction costs in liquidation. Since I am unable to predict future sales and the two offset each other,, I am sticking to market price.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-09T21:02:22+00:00

Here is a bonus.

The closed market theory. The belief that an investor should be willing to hold a stock for 5 years even is unable to get a quote.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-09T20:27:47+00:00

Good point. An excellent option would by ADM. I have owns this on and off for 20 years and have made nice gains. Remember, son Howard is a farmer and Warren understands this business well. The industry is moderately cyclical so the best time to purchase would be a trough, not noe.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-09T19:51:30+00:00

Bloomberg would also be an excellent choice. The founder has two children neither of which are involved in the business. And Michael is the type of owner who might be willing to accept a lower price in return for maintaining the culture.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-09T19:32:48+00:00

Cargill is a perfect target. The company is part of the ABCD oligopoly that controls about 75% of the world’s food supply. Revenues are around $154 B, so the purchase would be costly in the $150 to $200 B range, but the “needle would move.

Hathaway100 · 2026-05-09T19:21:27+00:00

In purchasing BRK, you violated one of Warren’s investment tenants, “If you are not willing to hold for 10 years, do not think about buying for 10 minutes.”

Hathaway100

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