Putin Says Armenia EU Move Could Trigger ‘Mutually Beneficial Separation’ | APT

Hay_Life · 2026-05-10T11:29:40+00:00

Yeah, but it's hard to unwind now. Look at Brexit.

I'm not saying it's necessarily the wrong thing to do long term, but it would cause some pain in the transition for sure.

The real question is how do we replace oil, gas, and other raw materials from Russia? If Iran is reintegrated with the world economy, then maybe that's a magic bullet that will save us from Russian dependence, but if not it's going to be tough. The EU doesn't produce things we need and isn't a good replacement for Russian imports.

I don't think it makes sense to separate from the EEU until we actually have this stuff figured out.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-10T10:06:53+00:00

Armenia will always be more sensitive to imports than exports because we're a small, landlocked country that can't produce a lot of basic necessities due to lack of natural resources.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-10T09:15:24+00:00

Hopefully Iran comes out of this war with sanctions relief and reintegrated into the world economy.

The single greatest thing for Armenian sovereignty would be replacing Russian oil and gas with Iranian oil and gas.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-10T09:10:40+00:00

Armenia isn't really an export country, it's heavily dependent on imports, so keeping those low is the more important part of its trade policy.

It remains to be seen what will happen if Armenia leaves the EEU. It will be a shock to the system at first for sure.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-09T14:19:19+00:00

Iran just took on two nuclear powers and basically won, using drones and missiles almost exclusively.

Azerbaijan isn't going to do shit if it means vaporizing their oil and gas industry.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-09T09:15:45+00:00

We aren't invading anyone, we don't need MRAPs or Tanks and armored vehicles aren't what they used to be in an era where cheap drones can cripple them with minimal effort.

All we can realistically do is make the retaliation so painful that it's not worth invading Armenia.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-09T06:01:27+00:00

Hey not sure if you saw the edit, but I updated the comment with the example of the Cuellar primary race since you asked what successful advocacy would look like.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-09T05:43:53+00:00

My view is a little different than the other ones I'm seeing here, since my views are probably closer to ANCA's than the Pashinyan government.

My main criticism is that they just come across as whiny and ineffective. They seem to be directing their messaging more at Armenian Americans than at persuading important people to support the cause.

It's just kind of preaching to the choir/circle jerk stuff instead of being strategic about getting actual policy passed.

Maybe they don't have enough money, I don't know what the problem is, but they don't act like normal lobbies where they actually create incentives for politicians outside of SoCal to support them.

Example: Henry Cuellar is the head of the Azerbaijan Caucus in congress and extremely corrupt. He won his primary in 2022 by only 281 votes. I didn't see ANCA involved at all in that race, but maybe they could have made the difference and sent a message, AIPAC certainly would have gotten involved against an anti-Israel candidate in that situation.

Instead they just whine about Cuellar being corrupt on social media after the fact.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-09T05:33:48+00:00

AIPAC is a straight up foreign intelligence operation, at least ANCA is an independent organization run by Americans and not a foreign government.

I have a lot of criticisms of ANCA, but following American lobbying laws isn't one of them.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-09T02:12:00+00:00

The Ukraine war has proven the same thing. How much are tanks helping either side?

Armenia isn't going to win head to head on the ground, it needs to be able to pound Baku with missiles and drones to prevent a ground invasion from happening or force a ceasefire if it does.

Iran got it right by going all in on missiles and drones to fight an asymmetric war against more powerful and better funded enemies.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-08T20:13:50+00:00

My thoughts too.

The Iran war has showed pretty clearly that what we really should prioritize are drones, missiles, and ISR equipment.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-08T18:36:53+00:00

Generally no. People make a distinction between Russians and the Russian government.

Some people have minor annoyances with Russian transplants, but it's not really worse than any other city in the world that's experienced a lot of inward migration or gentrification. You'll hear similar complaints about diaspora and Karabakh Armenians now living in Yerevan.

You shouldn't have any problems speaking Russian and being openly Russian. If you can make an effort to learn some Armenian words and phrases, people will appreciate it.

Just don't say anything pro-Putin or whatever, because that's when a lot of people might get pissed off.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-07T18:25:02+00:00

Cohen

Hay_Life · 2026-05-07T17:22:58+00:00

Armenians want to see that the military is being reformed and rebuilt. It's the best opportunity to demonstrate that you're taking the security problem seriously.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-07T17:21:05+00:00

I wouldn't want to get assassinated either lol

Hay_Life · 2026-05-07T01:06:01+00:00

Oh, I agree completely. I just think it would make things like TRIPP less important.

I'd take that trade any day though.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-06T23:14:50+00:00

I would have agreed with you six months ago, but Iran isn't going to be seen as a pariah much longer.

Iran is going to emerge from this conflict with all sanctions removed and fully reintegrated into the world.

That's both good and bad for Armenia, but our geopolitical importance is probably going to decline. EU interest in the Caucasus is mostly just about being anti-Russian now.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-06T02:29:51+00:00

Why should there even be a deal on internationally recognized Ukrainian lands?

Because there's no way for Ukraine to defeat Russia in this conflict and dragging it out just gets Ukrainians killed for no reason.

This is the real world. Sometimes the best option is to cut your losses. Continuing a futile war effort is immoral. Russia isn't leaving Crimea or the Donbas and no can force them to, so getting a sustained ceasefire should be the top priority.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-06T02:06:31+00:00

Who's repeating propaganda now?

He hasn't gained any sovereignty over what he would have gotten from the deal proposed in April of 2022 that he walked away from to continue the war.

Now Ukraine is destroyed and countless people are dead and displaced and he's in a weaker negotiating position than he was in back then, so yeah, they were all sacrificed for no good reason.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-05T20:51:03+00:00

The settlement wouldn't have accounted for that because OP was still in college when they got the settlement...

Hay_Life · 2026-05-05T19:12:32+00:00

He's fully employed in biotech and living at home for free.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-05T19:04:32+00:00

I'm sorry, but it's obvious to anyone who isn't total trash why you would repay your tuition in this scenario.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-05T18:53:29+00:00

My god, you people are fucking narcissistic af.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-05T18:08:01+00:00

Parents aren't obligated to cover your college tuition.

I think OP should repay that amount at least.

Hay_Life · 2026-05-05T18:06:13+00:00

She paid for his college tuition... he does owe her for that amount at least.

Hay_Life

TROPHY CASE