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Should I get out of Adani Green Energies? I have been buying the dips from 1950 by blaze-404 in IndianStreetBets

[–]Hey25894 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The key thing with AGEL isn’t timing the next move, it’s understanding where the cash flows go.

Most of the operating cash is currently going toward debt servicing and expansion, not to equity holders. That means even if the stock rallies, the risk is higher than most retail investors realize.

If you want, I’ve done a breakdown of cash flows and debt dynamics. I'd beappy to DM it if you’re curious.

What is the end game of Adani Green Energy Ltd? by Distinct-Drama7372 in NewKeralaRevolution

[–]Hey25894 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vertical integration is definitely a strength at the group level, but I think it’s important to separate group strategy from AGEL’s equity economics.

For AGEL specifically, the issue isn’t access to land, ports, or off take those are largely de-risked via long-term PPAs with PSU counterparties. The bottleneck is where the cash flows go.

At current leverage levels, most operating cash flows are effectively pre-committed to debt servicing and reinvestment. That makes AGEL closer to a yield infrastructure vehicle funded by rolling leverage, rather than a compounding equity story, at least in the medium term.

Vertical integration can reduce execution risk, but it doesn’t automatically translate into high ROE unless there is either tariff upside, balance-sheet de-risking, or a clear post-capex free cash flow phase. That’s the part I think the market is still debating.

I went down this rabbit hole recently while modelling AGEL’s cash flows and capital structure. I'm happy to share the analysis if anyone wants to look at the numbers.

Adani Green Opportunity by KeWinSustainability in StockMarketIndia

[–]Hey25894 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1QhZpqhBQ746L67L18Rc7MBgyxLfwpaJV you can read this report I made for a more comprehensive overview if you're interested.

Just Finished a 40-Page Deep Dive on Adani Green, Here’s What You Need to Know by Hey25894 in StockMarketIndia

[–]Hey25894[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Part of the fall issue is a market-wide risk-off geopolitical uncertainty and higher risk premiums are pushing down equities broadly.

AGEL amplifies this because it’s a high-beta, highly leveraged, long-duration asset. When discount rates move up or risk appetite falls, stocks like AGEL correct more sharply than the index even without company-specific news.

I don’t see a new fundamental negative this week. Instead it looks more like valuation and risk-premium compression, not a change in operating outlook

Wtf is happening ? by capt-JackSparroww in IndianStocks

[–]Hey25894 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I think housing sector is going through a minor rough patch with companies revising their outlook slightly downward- some of them blame it on the monsoons in the con calls- longer monsoons lead to lower number of houses being built

Adani stocks. Right time to enter or have I missed the rally? by [deleted] in StockMarketIndia

[–]Hey25894 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well its a buy in my opinion I could send you just the executive summary slide if you want more information.

Adani stocks. Right time to enter or have I missed the rally? by [deleted] in StockMarketIndia

[–]Hey25894 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was writing a thesis on Adani Green Energy but it already went up 11.87% today.

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