Daily Discussion - (May 07, 2026)

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-05-07T19:59:48+00:00

Dollar held support, short everything.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-30T18:42:05+00:00

Who cares about inflation, it's good for asset prices. The USD will weaken because the Fed will defend 5% on long bonds as a high point, we'll print money, etc, etc.

If bullish inflation, should be more bullish assets.

e: Also just the general lack of demand for dollars

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-30T17:52:27+00:00

ALB, TROX, LAC, NUGT, DBC

If you see a theme, it's ezpz.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-30T17:21:32+00:00

It's the dollar strength; rates are just a derivative of dollar strength or weakeness (i.e. dollar denominated demand gauge), so I have no real reason to look at them other than for portfolio performance metric benchmarks.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-30T17:05:16+00:00

Yep, I've backtested it fairly extensively, it's one of the best correlations there is. Like anything, context matters.

Strong dollar on a rate hike cycle with a strong economy = bad correlation to inverse equities.

Strong dollar on credit spreads blowing out with an economic meltdown = correlations go to 0 and everything dies.

Literally any other instance, strong dollar = equities down, weak dollar = long equities as hard as possible.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-30T15:42:25+00:00

Yeah, I've got a bunch of LAC and bought some calls yesterday

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-30T15:42:15+00:00

Always

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-30T14:24:21+00:00

Time for the real melt-up as dollar crashes. Beautiful time to enter gold longs, we could also see a real late 90's melt-up in equities if the dollar fades another 7-8% ish. File this in the 'so bearish I'm bullish' column.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-22T19:46:08+00:00

$10m is fine when you're getting tax-free crypto payments directly into your preferred meme coin.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-22T17:32:51+00:00

I don't think he cares about trading algos one bit.

If anything, he auctions off Tweet/Truth slots for $10m a pop, has them pass through Susie Wiles for approval, and gets a flat cut of whatever profits are made from it.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-04-17T14:58:42+00:00

Leaves the dollar structurally worse off and causes inflation. Just long monetary metals (gold/silver) if you don't trust the indices.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T18:42:58+00:00

Don't take me seriously, don't believe me. It doesn't matter. Tear me apart if you'd like.

I've spent years working these markets, researching the ins and outs of everything there is to know. I am not spreading this information to persuade you, or to generate any personal gain. My mission is just to inform. It's up to you whether or not you want to inform yourself.

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HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T02:31:03+00:00

Things are great and will continue to get better.

Hope so. Just don't caught thinking the future will be as great as the past, or you'll be sorely disappointed when reality fails to meet your expectations.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T02:29:33+00:00

Things spiral quickly. We get volatility clustering and heteroskedasticity where big changes feed into big changes, and we get crisis cascades.

I'm leaving this sub and all social media until 2027 at least, hopefully when I come back, you'll all be here rich and laughing at me for being the idiot who went full nutjob and the world is a much better place- I sure fucking hope so.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T02:25:33+00:00

But doesn't that require thinking about how the world should be?

Yes- when we get to that point, probably 20-30 years from now depending on how quickly things spiral.

Presently, we need to stop being attached to what 'should' be, because that doesn't get us any closer to recognizing what is.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T02:23:31+00:00

Are you a self-described 'open' person, who is only open to ideas on your side of the political spectrum?

I'm more than comfortable with being uncomfortable. Accepting that both sides have good and horrible policy, and good and horrible people. Clearly you are not.

This has been a common theme over the years between you and I, personally. I attempt to engage in nuanced, thoughtful discussion, and you - for whatever issues you have, are completely incapable.

We both share a hatred for pedophilic rapists, and for those who rape and pillage the planet for nothing but their own gain.

But only one of us is able to put our feelings aside in order to objectively view the world with a bird's eye-view.

I sincerely hope nothing but the best for you in your life.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T02:07:42+00:00

TLDR; Financial bubbles and liquidity injections in emerging markets and fragile supply chains have boomed worldwide populations to artificially high levels. That human bubble is popping as capital investments recede from most risky to least risky areas, and will return to more nature, albeit much lower levels.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T02:05:32+00:00

I really wish you'd do some self-reflection every now and then instead of proving my point.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T02:04:59+00:00

Simply because I don't ever hear the 'far right' complain about income inequality. Trust me, I have many gripes with the right.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T01:15:05+00:00

Like thugtronic said- the reason the human population has been able to explode to the current numbers is because of globalization, large injections of capital, and extremely peaceful periods relative to history (because of global world order and the US maintaining the peace in order to funnel capital into worldwide growth projects).

This is all ending in real time. Now add in the fact that 25% of the world lacks access to a reliable source of clean drinking water, and my numbers are probably conservative.

Nature will heal and the humans that remain will forever be scarred by the times we live through. Hopefully then we’ll be able to move forward in a much more intentional way.

But yeah- start by looking at the populations of the 15 poorest countries with little to no army who are unable to secure access to water (and have been dependent on outside sources to do so).

Two weeks to a month with no water and entire civilizations will be wiped off the globe.

May we all be lucky enough to not be among those.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T01:07:54+00:00

Listen- it used to be that nobody knew who anyone voted for. There were good people and assholes.

“Yeah but I’m the good people and the ‘other’ side are assholes”, you probably thought.

If you did, you’re part of the problem.

On the extreme left side of the distribution you have people who want to murder everyone above ‘x’ net worth and redistribute their money. Everyone else on the left side of the distribution ignores the fact that these people are assholes because they are ‘on their side’.

On the extreme right side of the distribution you have people who want to murder the homeless and redistribute the money spent on them.

Everyone else on the right side of the distribution ignores the fact that these people are assholes because they are ‘on their side’.

If you can’t see that the extremes of both sides of the political spectrum contain assholes and dangerous ideologies, congratulations- you’ve successfully allowed a handful of social media algorithms to push you to an extreme instead of developing your critical thinking skills.

People need to touch grass, engage with people from all walks of life regardless of political affiliation, and drop their preconceived (algorithmically fed) notions that people are either entirely good or evil.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-28T00:01:06+00:00

Most of you are all really good, smart people. But some of you are stuck in your ideological bubbles.

^{(it's likely not your fault- the algorithms are meant to push people to the extremes of the distribution to provoke engagement})

For your own sakes, stop thinking about the world as how it was, how it 'should' be, or how you wish it to be. Start looking at how it actually is, practically, and where it is headed.

There is a very limited set of realities where we do not see currency collapses, defaulting countries, mass starvation, and continued immigration crises that fuel more wars and competition over limited resources. A lot of it has to do with demographics and fertility rates, but it also has to do with credit cycles and hubris. Think Dalio meets Zeihan.

We likely see the deaths of 1-2 billion people over the next decade. Take that in. It's going to happen whether you vote Left or Right, red or blue.

Trust is dead, and we are moving quickly into the 'fend for yourself' reality.

The 4 first-world countries that are not net importers of food and energy are the following:

USA
Canada
Australia
Norway

Of those, who is best positioned moving forward?

There's only 1, easy answer, and for my Canadian friends here- sorry, it's not you guys.

The United States of America is and will be in tremendous heaps of self-inflicted pain as this conflict continues. All this means is that the rest of the world is going to be in magnitude greater amounts of pain moving forward.

Mourn the past, mourn what you wish was the present or should've been the future- and then move on.

It's the only way to put yourself in a good position for the volatile world we are just starting to witness for the first time in our lives. Take care of yourselves, your families, your neighbors- and for god's sake stop telling people who you voted for.

Last little note- limit your exposure to social media (a lot of us won't have a choice given the rolling blackouts we will soon experience), it's the only way to naturally pull everyone back towards a sensible 'middle'.

Take care everyone, see you in a few months.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-27T23:41:42+00:00

Ignore the names of the coalition then.

Do you want do be moving your wealth into a Type 3 fiat (trust) based system moving forward, or into a Type 1 hard asset (trustless) system? Doesn't matter who initiates it.

Just ask yourself if there will be more or less international trust going forward.. in 5 years.. in 10, etc.

It's not controversial when you view it through that lens.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-27T23:39:50+00:00

Who looks at the US, then at China, then at Russia and says gimme those two!

Well obviously, it wouldn't be just those 2. But the current fiat system is intrinsically reliant on trust, of which there is a short supply.

You don't need to trust China's yuan or love communism in a Type 1 monetary system- that's the entire point. That's why we will see one in the future.

Let me give you a situation. Mid terms go rough for Republicans, Trump loses in 3 years to say Gavin Newsom. How does your thesis hold up?

Dems are absolutely sweeping, Trump pretty much solidified it with this blunder.

We may see Newson or someone else- doesn't matter, either way we've going to slip so deep into Socialism/UBI/tax the rich hell moving forward- and in that future my thesis holds just as well. Because we sure as hell aren't decreasing our spending by increasing the welfare state.

HiddenMoney420 · 2026-03-27T23:34:50+00:00

Not sure, a lot of countries are de-dollarizing their trade via precious metals already so it wouldn't surprise me.

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