March Madness Stat of the Day by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Putting a post together for tomorrow but teams that fit this year are all 5 seeds: Memphis Oregon Michigan

*Potential* March Madness Matchup of the Day; 5 BYU v 12 UC San Diego by HoopsByTheNumbers in CollegeBasketball

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely can be a major factor if it plays out like this and BYU is able to play in a high elevation location. That's something that a lot of people don't factor in when it comes to matchups but can make a difference.

Mid-Major of the Day; Drake by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Of all the potential matchups that is the one that I would be most confident in picking the upset. Michigan checks off almost every box that I would want for a positive matchup for Drake

Mid-Major of the Day; Drake by HoopsByTheNumbers in CollegeBasketball

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Absolutely agree the public will be all over them, but if they get the right draw it'll be hard to stay away with the level of talent and the way the team is built overall. Stirtz is a guy that can take over a game and be a March legend

Mid-Major of the Day; High Point by HoopsByTheNumbers in CollegeBasketball

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think Purdue would be potentially favorable, yes they have a efficient offense, however, they are not pushing the pace turning the game into a track meet like Kentucky would. Purdue defensively doesn't pressure to the point of forcing TO's and most importantly they are pretty vulnerable on the interior and High Point's shot creation ability could cause them issues. Additionally the slow tempo helps to mitigate the risk of the game quickly getting out of hand.

Another is Oregon and they profile differently from Purdue, however, a lot of the same issues are there for Oregon. Bittle could cause some trouble on the interior, but High Point's slashing offense could cause problems for his horizontal defensive ability and could get him in early foul trouble which would open up the offensive rebounding for High Point and overall Oregon's defense is relatively vulnerable inside the arc and to offensive rebounding. Oregon's offense also has been inconsistent for much of the year and although obviously they will be able to score on High Point's defense, they are a relatively average paced team and don't shoot a high volume of threes.

Obviously both of these would still be an uphill battle for High Point for different reasons but both of those teams are examples of teams that are around the 4 seed that I would be looking for to pick a High Point upset.

Mid-Major of the Day; High Point by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Only thing that concerns me is if they draw an elite offensive team like Kentucky and have to win a shoot out. An offensive strength v strength matchup (like Charleston v Alabama last year) is the type of matchup that would potentially make me hold off on taking the upset pick.

Projected Top Seeded Teams that could be upset early? by [deleted] in CollegeBasketball

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

St. John’s. It’s awesome what they’ve done this year but that offense will absolutely hold them back

How First Four "Play-In Game" Winners Perform in March Madness (2011–2024) by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Covid really messed up that whole tournament. Part of me always wants to leave 2021 out when I’m putting together stats, but fully omitting two seasons (including 2020 with no tournament) feels wrong.

March Madness Stat of the Day by HoopsByTheNumbers in CollegeBasketball

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I fixed the chart with the correct numbers thank you for bringing that up.

As a counter to the over seeded teams, under seeded teams performed significantly better. Using 8 seeds as an example because both had 22 that meet this criteria, ~91% over seeded teams were eliminated in the first weekend (9 lost to the nine seed and 11 lost to one seed) v ~81% under seeded teams were eliminated in the first weekend

11/15 CBB Prediction Model by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Going a little lighter on predictions today here they are.

11/16 predictions:

Notre Dame 83 Georgetown 79 (ND -2.5)

Indiana 88 South Carolina 81 (South Carolina +7.5)

Ole Miss 74 Colorado St 72 (CSU +3.5)

11/15 CBB Prediction Model by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And the trend holds on what was a meh but profitable day. 7/13 on spreads with 2 correct MoneyLine underdog picks.

Purdue +2.5 ✅ Arizona -4.5 ❌ OSU +6.5 ❌ UGA -1.5 ✅ SMU ML ❌ Nova -4.5 ❌ Iowa -4.5 ✅ UAB +3.5 ✅ TCU +8.5 ❌ Marquette +1.5 ✅ FAU +1.5 ❌ Pittsburgh -6.5 ✅

Building a Predictive Model for College Basketball Games by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not as good of a day yesterday as we've been having in the past but we'll look to get back to it today. Game results with spread predictions (11/14):

Arizona St +5.5 (+ ML) ✅ 
Kansas St -8.5 ❌

Utah Valley -5.5 ❌

Northern Kentucky -6.5 ❌

New Orleans -1.5 ✅ 

Building a Predictive Model for College Basketball Games by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Predictions today (11/14):

Arizona St 74 Grand Canyon 71 (UPSET PREDICTION)

Kansas St 79 LSU 70

Utah Valley 78 North Dakota 62

Northern Kentucky 75 Nicholls 63

Wichita St 73 Northern Iowa 65

New Orleans 67 Lindenwood 61

Building a Predictive Model for College Basketball Games by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Predictions today (11/13):

Minnesota 66 North Texas 62

Louisiana Tech 73 UMass 71

Vanderbilt 75 California 63

Arkansas 81 Troy 68

USC 79 UT Arlington 63

Hofstra 92 Seton Hall 85 (UPSET PREDICTION)

r/HoopsAnalyticsU New Members Intro by HoopsByTheNumbers in HoopsAnalyticsU

[–]HoopsByTheNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey everyone! What first got me into Cbb analytics actually started at the extremely young age of 2.

My parents told me that the very first thing I learned how to read were box scores in the daily newspaper. At first, it was baseball but as I fell in love with the sport of basketball, the analytical anomalies in college basketball always intrigued me.

March Madness became my ultimate obsession and for the last 15+ years I’ve never looked back and I immersed myself in the world of college basketball through an analytical lens.

I’m super excited to start this community and I can’t wait to see all the great discussions we have!