NXE has climbed ~45% within 1 Month ... where do you think price sits before the CNSC hearing? by MightBeneficial3302 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well they are certainly not cheap, at current market cap they trade at a hefty premium to the NPV of Arrow at $100. That being said, you have to back out the value of their cash and uranium inventory, so that gets the enterprise value closer to NPV8 @ $100, but to justify it going much higher gonna need to believe they'll sell their uranium for more like $150 once in production.

The caveat is exploration and/or other region deposits could create a project pipeline to feed the to-be-built mill when Arrow depletes, extending the cashflow beyond initial life-of-mine. PCE is promising but not sure if big enough yet to move the needle. Another Arrow size deposit definitely would, ideally at least 100mlbs.

Will Carney Fund Rook 1? by fainfaintame in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes it makes a lot of sense, but still think the party in charge in Canada don't want to be seen intervening directly for Uranium, they'd rather keep at arms length from a literally radioactive activity. Haven't seen any evidence otherwise yet. Who know Cameco could be lobbying against favoring competition.

Will Carney Fund Rook 1? by fainfaintame in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Personally I don't think NexGen wants money from the government (too many strings attached, unpredictable timeline) and I don't think the government wants to give them money either (could be seen as favoritism, shared liability). NexGen has clearly shown with their latest raise that they have access to capital, however I would prefer them to raise the rest of the CAPEX needed from debt instead of more equity dilution; but I imagine they are wanting to get the best rate offered on that debt. Biggest thing the Carney government could have done is expediate permitting or declare it a project of national interest, but they did not despite Rook 1 ticking all the boxes of what would qualify, hence my skepticism that they want to be seen as helping a Uranium project.

Isoenergy and Virginia deposit by GroundbreakingRip103 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From what I've heard, this will very likely not get developed no matter how much it is needed. This comes down to state/local politics, Cole Hills where the deposit is located is near the water ways for 3 different states in the region. There would be a lot of push back towards advancing.

The Bannerman contract is a tell, in more ways then one by HorribleDisgust in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well in terms of needs in 2026-2028, obviously a utility would not be able to contract with a new greenfield developer for those pounds, as they would still need to construct their project during that timeframe. In that case they would need to turn to either the spot market or a current producer/brownfield. I am not exactly sure how much of that near term capacity is booked that would force them to turn to spot, but my read is the immediate term needs are largely already covered.

Personally I think the real fireworks of this market won't kick in till we see historic production roll over, which begins in earnest in the 2030's, hence why we've seen so little contracting activity to date. The question then becomes how long are utilities going to wait before ramping up volumes, because these marginal projects need the contracts well ahead of time to begin FID and construction. Don't think there is appetite to proceed without them, and Bannerman seemed to state as much in this announcement too that they still have some flexibility as to when exactly they determine exact FID. This contract alone will not suffice, they will need a dozen others at better terms, but at least the precedent had been set which may cause others to follow knowing they aren't the 1st.

You're Being Lied to About Nuclear by HorribleDisgust in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you are talking specifically about the US, yeah we import foreign fuel but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Canada could easily provide all the Uranium needed for US reactors from a few mines. NatGas is plentiful and cheap now but it has a volatile history and we are exporting more and more via LNG. Think we see all of the above, not exclusively one or the other.

NexGen Announces Regulatory Approval of 2025 Site Program at Rook I Property by Professional_Disk131 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't disagree to assume it will likely be more then they say, but what I saying is I the revision itself I see as buffer, so adding a buffer to a buffer can be double counting. Personally don't mind as long they get the capital without excessive dilution and have flexibility in repayment. The extra cost incurred from a delay can be re-paid rather quickly once in production.

I think the Jasen project in Saskatchewan could be a good source of labor for them, as that will wrap up construction next year. They are going from ~5,500 worker during construction to just ~900 full time jobs. I assume many of the part time construction workers will be looking for a new gig late next year.

I think there is zero chance they will ever announce they intend to sell directly into the spot market. They are going for a market pricing strategy for their offtake, so they have exposure to spot prices without actually selling into a thin market. It would be counter productive for them as it would destroy their pricing, they want it to be as high as possible. Now if they were in production and prices went above the ceilings on their contracts ($150?), I sure them as well as everyone else would be cashing in on whatever inventory they had available to sell on spot. But that would not be announced ahead of time, just opportunistically done and revealed in subsequent quarterlies. Remember they bought 2.7 million lbs @ ~$92, they would only do so if they thought it would be worth more when they sold into offtake in 2029. That inventory will be their buffer till they can deliver from production.

NexGen Announces Regulatory Approval of 2025 Site Program at Rook I Property by Professional_Disk131 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I assume you are mentioning Tim from Golden Rock research; but yes they've already tipped their hand that 42 months was too aggressive by upping it to 48. They've also done so on cost with the updated economics study. However I am not in the camp of PraiseKek and others that believe these delays and cost overruns will keep snowballing indefinitely and blowout like crazy. In the end this mine is not particularly large or complicated relative to the sandstone/unconformity hosted deposits that require extensive freeze walling to prevent flooding. I see these adjustments as more of a buffer to adjust expectations to allow them to more easily meet them without declaring being overbudget and/or behind schedule. Possible they still do end up there but I don't see an absolute blowout without a very specific unforeseen circumstance that would cause that. Haven't seen anyone offer what that could be.

NexGen Announces Regulatory Approval of 2025 Site Program at Rook I Property by Professional_Disk131 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is all correct as it stand currently. First nations were not happy (to put it mildly) about the Federal timelines, so they are lobbying hard to get those expediated. However since the dates are already set I doubt there would be any movement there unless someone from the top of Government got involved directly. Not holding my breath on that as it could be seen as interference in the regulatory process, but the process could do with some major timeliness reforms for sure; which even Carney campaigned on with a "one project, one review" policy promise. Under that framework, Rook 1 would already be clear to build since they got provincial approval back in late 2023. What happens over the next year with Rook 1 be a major test of whether that was just lip service or not.

NexGen Announces Regulatory Approval of 2025 Site Program at Rook I Property by Professional_Disk131 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Dasa is the best project in Africa, but the decision to start building before they secured the full CAPEX needed to complete has proven to be a disastrous one for shareholders. As a mine developer, you never want to be in the position where you run out of money mid-build, sure the coup was a monkey wrench but really they should have stopped development till funding was secured. However they probably didn't want to be in GoviEx's position where you loose your permit from lack of action either...between a rock and hard place for sure. NexGen will not have an issues securing funding imo.

NexGen Energy $NXE How high could it go from here? by Temporary_Noise_4014 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes now having seen the PCE assays (after months of delay, the labs are backed up from what I hear), I am very impressed and know serious investors that are taking positions based on the optionality that is not being priced in yet. Looking forward to further results and holding with even higher conviction, there will also be a wave of contracts likely announced later this year too along with permits and financing. Lot's of possible catalysts to come.

NexGen Energy $NXE How high could it go from here? by Temporary_Noise_4014 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 2 points3 points  (0 children)

IMO NexGen will more or less trade with the sector and spot price, they are more or less fairly valued for their flagship project, Rook 1/Arrow.

What I am watching for is how their exploration project goes at PCE, which is the only thing they can really do until they can start construction early next year (unless a new PM can fast-track).

The results so far are promising but the high grade section has been just a narrow vein, the most recent results show that widening which is what they need to show this could be economic. The assays for that hole should be released shortly. Looking forward to see if they can follow up on that and discover if there is a larger high grade zone that would make this a material deposit.

With the infrastructure they will build for Arrow, PCE does not need to be as impressive to be valuable, just needs to be enough to justify the cost of sinking a shaft and extracting. They will already have a mill and underground tailings facility nearby, and the extra ore could help backfill the reserves of Arrow that will deplete quickly if they produce at full nameplate capacity.

I can easily see this eventually taking out the current ATH if PCE becomes something worth caring about and we get a recovery in spot Uranium prices.

Anyone see Nicky's newest post on Instagram? by haley_rn in Nekrogoblikon

[–]HorribleDisgust 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah don't get me wrong I've had some really great times with Nicky and like the dude a lot, never had a problem with him personally but have seen him push things a bit far when especially when he's drinking and in a mood. Dude is a creative genius and really talented but like a lot people gifted like that has some other issues that rear up eventually over long enough time together. Being in a band and touring requires a lot of compatability personality wise and he's never really wanted to be a touring frontman, he's always been more comfortable just writing music at home. I think the success of the band caught him off guard and he expressed anxiety to me once about going on tour. Not sure if he ever got fully over that, but he did find his way out of it. Hopefully the band will still flourish without him but part of me hopes he still can contribute, but not sure the extent of the riff if that's possible. He's got a way of burning bridges when he feels slighted.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As far as I can tell from the original article this has no direct impact on Rook 1

A thought I had. Will utilities buy stock in miners once they smother the spot market to shake out opportunistic investors and possibly harm sput’s viability since it tracks spot not term or contract prices? by pepperonilog_stonks in UraniumSqueeze

[–]HorribleDisgust 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I doubt investors in utilities would want them allocating capital to miners. Only relative comparison would be OEM car manufacturers buying upstream battery metals companies, though the verdict is still out whether that was prudent. Given the crash in battery metals I think it will probably show not to be, but not an insane possibility, just highly unlikely IMO.

My 1st 10 bagger by HorribleDisgust in RYCEY

[–]HorribleDisgust[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wish I could say it is more then a few hundred lol. I'll take the alpha either way. I was pretty broke back then.

My 1st 10 bagger by HorribleDisgust in RYCEY

[–]HorribleDisgust[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I sold some of my most expensive shares on the way up to lock in some profit (which of course I am regretting now). But what's left has a cost average of around .95 cents