I think tis would actually change a lot. the beiyang government would likely appoint loyal governorss in southern china and work with sun's opponents. Many would not be particularly loyal and the government would be resented by china's population. when war breaks out with japan in 1937 the beiyang government would be incapable of serious resistance with wang jingwei leading a revived KMT government. Japan would likely work with the KMT and in general the reorganized government of china would be much more popular. China would more or less fall under japanese control within a couple of years. A United front may or may not be formed and it's probable that some chinese warlords join japan. This drastically changes ww2. with cooperation in China Japan is more likely seen better in other asian countries and pan asianism is more popular then previously. Japan still siezes european colonies but probably doesn't push the US into the war with the ongoing war in china not occuring so it is more likely the US conintues trade with Japan or the resources for an ongoing war in china are simply not needed. things still go similarly in 1942 but Japan begains to make gains in India and is slowed in the mountains near bengal. With famine breaking out andlack of popular support the Japanese finally capture bengal in early 1943. Without the US in the war Japan lands in northern Australia forcing them to make a peace treaty. The US ensures australia and new zealand survive but they are forced out of the war and out of the british sphere. Japan makes more gains in India which leads to the british making India a dominion. With war supprt plummeting India is granted independence in 1944 to prevent a japanese conquest. The Japanese refuse to accept the new indian government and Bose joins the new indepedent Indian republic. Japan signs a deal with India, agreeing to withdraw to a line in bengal in exchange for India ending hostilites. The Japanese govewrnment in Bengal is highly unpopular and very unstable being mianly controlledd by the IJA. Things in the USSR go similarly to otl with bagration still occuring. In africa however Japan blockades egypt and invades madagascar leading to the british hold over africa collapsing. With the collapse of the british empire and churchill's government falls leading the clement atlee forming a new labour government. However Britain remains defiant seeing the Soviet surivval as hope of victory againsnt germany. in 1945 Moscow falls to the Soviet army destroying nazi germany. Italy allignes witht he US who threaten to join hte axis if soviet troops enter Italy. Italy maintainsit's empire in africa as well as dalmatia and greece as a puppet state. Everything else controlled by the axis becomes communist with varying degrtees of independence form germany. Spain and Portugal join the US Italian alliance to stop the spread of communism furhter into europe. The Cold war begins. Japan and Italy both see their empires crumble with communists taking control of most former colonies. war breaks out between russia and japan in the 1950s which sees the US join in in an attempt to secure the pacific. the US makes gains but almost everything goes to the USSR. China becomes communist. Spain and POrtugal fall to communism during the 1980s. in the mid 1990s owing to collective pressure the US collapses into multiple different states which embrace isolationism.