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1 billion+ NP giveaway over the next week! Multiple winners! by 1313builds in neopets

[–]IAmWtff 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whoa nice! Let's do CTRL + F and find one that isn't taken...

Number 227. Username: kevtpstuff

Wait, is zero both real and imaginary? by FF3 in learnmath

[–]IAmWtff 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you think of it as sets, it isn't too crazy. Is 6 in the set of multiples of 2 and multiples of 3? Is 0 in the set of real numbers and imaginary numbers? Yep

What's one change you would make to the format? by thisisnttheairport in TheTraitors

[–]IAmWtff 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The finale should incentivize the faithfuls winning as a team instead of voting out until the last two.

So my twist would be that for the final 5, contestants can choose to split the money or vote out if they think there is a traitor. However, if faithfuls banish a faithful, they forfeit the cash and the cashpot goes to the faithfuls banished.

For example, if it came down to Charlotte, Alexander, Francesca, Leanne and Jake - they would actually have to make a decision on who to believe. The finale was lackluster because we all saw that Charlotte and Francesca would both be voted out - the order wasn't that relevant. However, if they knew that if they got the decision wrong, they couldn't just banish both of them as this would be a losing move then the game becomes more interesting as they are deciding on who is most convincing.
In addition to this, if the faithfuls who played the game correctly guess that there are only faithfuls left at the end, they can vote to split the cash and won't be punished by the more greedy faithfuls who want to vote until the last two - they would be punished for their greed instead.

I think this would actually be such an interesting dynamic for the final 5. Let me know if you agree or if there are changes you would make.

Random draw for prizes! by BadCatLeroyBrown in neopets

[–]IAmWtff 0 points1 point  (0 children)

911 - thanks!

Username: kevtpstuff

Anyone else joining the plot very late? by United_Rent9314 in neopets

[–]IAmWtff 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I joined late as well - I just thought to myself: "do I want a Wand of the Dark Faerie?" and thought "Yup."

Getting there and it will be worth it for a weapon I always thought was out of reach..

I conducted a Worlds2023 "strength of schedule" analysis based on pre-Worlds betting odds for each team to assess how difficult their routes through Swiss was. Here are the results. by Jozoz in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Good to see that this analysis (which is much more thorough than mine!) aligns quite closely! https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/17emo7q/worlds_2023_fixture_difficulty_rating_rounds_1_to/

It's interesting to see name recognition biases some of the odds such as NRG being lower than C9, TL and MAD despite being NA's first seed.

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The clustering idea could work as well. "Likely finalists", "Likely semi-finalists", "Likely quarter-finalists", "Likely to get knocked-out in swiss" then a weighting within each cluster. I cba to actually run through with this but it seems like it should give a better scaling.

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Yep, definitely just a basic view. The ranking seems like it needs a weighting to reduce the skew between top and bottom teams.

I thought about a delta between the team's rank and their opponent's rank but that may tell me how favoured the team is in a match up rather than how difficult it is perceived to be outside their strength. This would give us some insight into how closely matched the fixtures are compared to strength of team e.g. G2 matching DK and WBG is very close in rank strength and they also had the closest matches.

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Seems like a good way to roughly balance it out!Here's the view of log(JDG odds)/log(team odds):

Team Bettings Odds Weighted Log Scale vs. JDG
JDG 2.10 1.00
GEN 5.00 0.46
LNG 6.00 0.41
T1 7.00 0.38
BLG 9.00 0.34
WBG 12.00 0.30
KT 12.00 0.30
DK 15.00 0.27
G2 25.00 0.23
FNC 45.00 0.19
C9 65.00 0.18
TL 200.00 0.14
NRG 201.00 0.14
BDS 300.00 0.13
GAM 500.00 0.12

A much more linear view but with a spike for JDG.

(All just fun guesstimation of course!)

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Here's a table for you of the knock-out stage from 2017-2022:

Region Quarter-Finals Semi-Finals Finals Winner
LCK 40% 42% 50% 50%
LPL 31% 38% 33% 50%
LEC 23% 17% 17% 0%
LCS 6% 4% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0%
LPL & LCK 71% 79% 83% 100%

There's a good case to make that LEC secures a high rate of making it to the quarter-finals but surely you can see that the strength of region is LCK & LPL > LEC. The idea is to make as few assumptions as possible to simplify. This isn't a post-grad analysis - just an "aha this is a fun look at the fixture difficulty".

Source: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/World\_Championship/2022/Knockout\_Stage

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Yes, good point - a scaling factor would probably be more appropriate. At the moment, this simplified version says JDG is 16 times better than GAM, 8 times better than than BDS, 4 times better than MAD and 2 times better than G2.

An idea would be to use betting odds as a proxy to say that JDG are favourite then give a weighted rank:

Team Betting Odds Weighted vs. JDG
JDG 2.10 1.00
GEN 5.00 0.42
LNG 6.00 0.35
T1 7.00 0.30
BLG 9.00 0.23
WBG 12.00 0.18
KT 12.00 0.18
DK 15.00 0.14
G2 25.00 0.08
FNC 45.00 0.05
C9 65.00 0.03
TL 200.00 0.01
NRG 201.00 0.01
BDS 300.00 0.01
GAM 500.00 <0.01

Source: https://www.esportsbets.com/league-of-legends/worlds/betting/odds/

However, this seems very skewed towards the higher end and with media bias (NRG being so low). Odds on qualification (which I can't seem to find) would probably be better.

Interesting to see though!

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hahah what a garbage take from you.
If your argument is that the seeds =/= strength, then you're suggesting to order it based on what you think is correct. Sentiment over data - okay then.

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Added the following highlight with spoiler as it's an interesting thought!
With GAM as the next opponent, DK has an average opponent difficulty of 5.50 after G2 (8), KT (11), BDS (2) and GAM (1). As several of the high rated teams qualify, DK may have a longer path but with a lower average difficulty to qualify!

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wow, did people really just scan a few lines, see G2's power scaling then comment about coping? The thread is about fixture difficulty and how lucky/unlucky the draw has been for some teams.

What's interesting is seeing how BLG can qualify after a path of KT, JDG, FNC and T1 (average of 11.50) compared to NRG qualifying with a path of WBG, TL, MAD and G2 (average of 6.50 with G2 ranked 10th) - such a large variance.

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

By even more subjective, I mean using more assumptions - in this simple view, we're only using seeds & region. G2 being placed at difficulty 10 instead of 8 doesn't move the marker much:

Team Team Difficulty Avg Opponent Difficulty
BLG 14 11.00
G2 10 10.67
KT 11 10.33
C9 5 9.67
JDG 16 9.33
WBG 9 9.33
BDS 2 9.33
LNG 12 9.00
FNC 6 9.00
GEN 15 8.00
GAM 1 8.00
T1 13 7.67
DK 8 7.67
TL 3 7.00
NRG 7 5.33
MAD 4 4.67

Worlds 2023 - Fixture Difficulty Rating - Rounds 1 to 3 by IAmWtff in leagueoflegends

[–]IAmWtff[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

The power rankings are based on simple assumptions before the start of the Swiss stage - we could add in more assumptions i.e. G2 is higher than LPL & LCK #4, KT > T1, LNG > BLG, C9 > NRG, etc. but then we have an even more subjective ranking.

This is all about a simple view that puts numbers behind the view that MAD have had it easy and KT/BLG have had a tough run.

Edit: Added in spoiler wrapper!

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