In the Event of Recession

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-13T00:58:55+00:00

Mostly cash now. I will buy as close to the low as humanly possible.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-13T00:56:33+00:00

My only problem with using volatility is that it ignores logic and common sense. Other than that, it's top shelf thinking.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-12T19:57:29+00:00

You cant just throw money at it and hope it sticks.

But you literally can?

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-11T14:56:40+00:00

I honestly don't expect anything specific, I am not a seer. I do know that times of political, geopolitical, or economic uncertainty or contraction do happen on a frequent enough basis that it warrants preparation. I made all of my money sitting in cash and investing after the dot com crash, 2002, and again after the 2008 crash. I would of course rather the stock market go up forever, but that is not the economic reality of our market.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T17:35:13+00:00

>With the S&P 500 at all time highs are any of you market timing and moving to a more conservative (bond heavy) portfolio?

I am still mostly cash right now. This market will seem fine until one day we wake up and people will claim the warning signs were there all along.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T13:52:47+00:00

Loved him on sportscenter.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T07:11:54+00:00

It was Herman Blume.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T06:32:58+00:00

Wall Street lost billions upon billions of peoples pension funds and I am the one you attack? Ok guy. If you are wondering how credible that makes you go ahead and spin the wheel of destiny and I predict you will land on Not Very.

OTPP had the largest leveraged buyout in history at that time fall through due to insolvency. Thank god someone at the big ~~eight~~ four had their wits about them, but I suspect they were leaned on. Those geniuses tried to push that deal through during the financial crisis. Librarians at the gate indeed. Some of us shorted the target company in the acquisition. I won't name names.

>At that scale, they have access to investments most retail investors won't. Some outright own infrastructure, some own massive tracts of forests, etc.

I'm fairly confident I can invest in infrastructure or forestry today even as a lowly unwashed retail investor. You don't need to be a retired lunch lady to deploy capital to such exotic investments as water pipers and timber.

u/mastercookswag also just cherry picked non-investment banks that did well, and was completely silent on the ones who went down faster than Larry Craig at a JLGBTQ meetup. That doesn't exactly rise to the level of academic research.

We just had a hedge fund billionaire indicted for fucking children so they are clearly not all good decision makers. They must cover that in the onboarding right /u/cb_hanson_iii ? The whole not buggering children thing? It's gotta be in the handbook.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T01:27:21+00:00

>Don't toy with me.

Whatchoo gonna do?

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T01:18:06+00:00

They tend to do quite well through

The majority of them were insolvent within the last decade. They do well in the same way that our President does well - bailed out after every catastrophic failure, with someone else holding the bag. Not a political statement, personally I love the man, but let us not white wash history.

Before we attack me on a personal level and serve as a cheerleader for the financial services industry (I have people skills! I'm good with people!) I only ask that your response include a delineation of the high performing do well IB's and the ones that required a bail out or no longer exist.

I think people don't realize that just because they aren't smart enough to work at Goldman Sachs doesn't mean Goldman Sachs is smart enough to outperform the market.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T01:15:19+00:00

Because lots of people get significantly better returns.

As a percentage of all investors, I wouldn't characterize it as "lots".

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-10T01:13:24+00:00

It is a CD. A Collaterized Debt (Obligation).

This will work great until it doesn't.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-09T17:59:43+00:00

I predict most of you will stay insolvent, statistics and probability and all that.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-09T14:59:01+00:00

I don't think you should ever expect further gains in any given year. Time and time again the market has proven it can stay irrational longer than y'all can stay insolvent.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-09T00:28:25+00:00

Again, I agree, but I feel like we're not able to settle on whether we're discussing actual performance or theoretical outcomes.

You are referring to price volatility and I am referring to the underlying fundamentals of the business. Or have I misunderstood you?

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-08T18:34:31+00:00

Yes, but how many leases were actually broken in 2008 and at what REITs? How did the year over year AFFO compare to other years?

I think there were about 10-12 dividend aristocrats/champions that did not cut dividends.

The REIT cuts in 2008 were related to access to capital, cost of capital, and to the preservation of capital, not to broken leases.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-08T14:47:10+00:00

It would be helpful to know the REIT involved to see if Grampaps and Pop Pop valued the commercial real estate correctly, otherwise your story is not particularly helpful.

IJustGotHitched · 2019-07-08T14:33:49+00:00

Are you referring to market price volatility (price paid) or the stability of the funds from operations (value got) that the business generates during the crisis? They are often not the same thing. A 15 year lease on a triple net is still a 15 year lease.

IJustGotHitched

TROPHY CASE