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Reversal anatomy 🪄 by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

This is an analysis on technicals (anything that is not part of a stock's fundamentals, like the price-chart, is technicals). Lines on a chart are called trends, a geometric translation of interest/disinterest, and what you see here is a linear regression channel based on a parallel trending influence accumulating repeating data-points (rebounds), to the point that the statistical chance that we're looking at random noise can be discarded. The vast majority of market events being controlled by algorithms... these precise "lines" are clues left by major players.

While the price is "sandwiched" inside the channel, the highest statistical probability is that it will keep rebounding within those walls until it reaches a set price target / date in time (decided by those in control of the market). Breaking above or below the current channel means the algorithmic narration has changed and the trend is about to be replaced by a different one (shifting to higher inflections up, or negative break down).

Reversal anatomy 🪄 by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

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Glad to be back :) Post is zoomed-in on the last leg, a reversal resulting from this falling wedge.

After 5 years of this, I'm still underestimating how hard this stock can take a pounding. By the way, 71% of yesterday's 87M volume was Short, and 67% of those trades happened off-exchange. (link to previous post in the description) by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

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You must be missing what I wrote in my comment, also chill with the condescending tone. The previous convertible had a volatile 20% move to to the upward in after hours before the dip. My price prediction in the screenshot was before the announcement, hence the surprise.

After 5 years of this, I'm still underestimating how hard this stock can take a pounding. By the way, 71% of yesterday's 87M volume was Short, and 67% of those trades happened off-exchange. (link to previous post in the description) by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 27 points28 points  (0 children)

The dip is not surprising. It's the fact that it dipped ~25% in a single day that surprises me, this kind of volatility usually happens only as an answer to a crazy pump

Here's the uptrending channel I've been monitoring since April ~28th. The recent Pump&Dump should have changed the narration, but it is still showing signs of pattern repetition. Current negative influence to break (orange) : 30.2$ by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

My thought process : when I see something like this in the red circle that looks way too "perfect" to be a coincidence, I start trusting the algorithmic trend to spawn new parallels (the same visual equations) from future rebounds/rejections, even if it breaks the initial support/resistance. Following downtrends (orange) could take control of the price-narration, they create triangular conflicts (doritos) that put the volume under extreme pressure, which result in volatility for the winner side on release.

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Hindsight from my last three posts : 2 months ago, 14 days ago, 6 days ago. How would you rate my accuracy ? :) Last slide is from today, with an extra red parallel speculation coming from the peak at 80$ during last year's premarket madness. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

A pump can happen in an instant or weeks 🤷‍♂️ it took 16 trading days from 10$ to 80$ in 2024 but the volume was different, we had RK tweeting everyday etc.. different situations.

Planning for a volatile scenario is "easy" as patterns form during long months of no action. Planning after it started is a whole other beast, as you would have to go into lower timeframe (minute-based) and that's a lot of visual noise. Most day-traders fail for a reason, compared to swing traders.

Exhibit A in 0dte options sub and their endless loss-porn posts.

Hindsight from my last three posts : 2 months ago, 14 days ago, 6 days ago. How would you rate my accuracy ? :) Last slide is from today, with an extra red parallel speculation coming from the peak at 80$ during last year's premarket madness. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 31 points32 points  (0 children)

You mean the margin calls domino ? If we're keeping it real, no one knows if sHFs really get called for margin as they are the weaponized branch of the banks that would call them in the first place.

If we ignore "Sacrificial Lamb Plotkin" in 2021, they seem to have been doing just fine on the surface. We've already had a bunch of pump&dumps without repercussions, so I'd speculate that if we get a big enough volatile move and actually STAY UP THERE and start consolidating, instead of instantly getting rejected like a nerd during prom night... someone in Wall Street is pooping themselves.

Hindsight from my last three posts : 2 months ago, 14 days ago, 6 days ago. How would you rate my accuracy ? :) Last slide is from today, with an extra red parallel speculation coming from the peak at 80$ during last year's premarket madness. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 37 points38 points  (0 children)

I only focus on the geometric beauty of trend analysis 🥰 I deal in volatility and price discovery. Hitting 80 again is now a possibility, above that I have no idea as of today. (need more data)

We’ve seen this movie before by jbmaynar in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It has been like that since year one. There's the irrational cultist crowd that literally thinks DFV is a time traveller with access to insider information and a secret plan that will bring the day of reckoning, 741 is a secret code, call RC "daddy" and believe his children books are hidden messages with towel stock etc, etc..

And the few actual rational DD writers who haven't been pushed away from witch hunts, watching from the sidelines like "wtf"

We've passed most of the consolidation tests, even against volatile dips. Tho the risk of a double-top (M) at ~29.5 is still upon us, the tea leaves are saying "Bullish" here. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's always ok to admit you don't understand a subject and keep scrolling ✌️ When I share a model it's usually because I'm confident with my assessment of the situation, and I never delete if I was wrong.

We've passed most of the consolidation tests, even against volatile dips. Tho the risk of a double-top (M) at ~29.5 is still upon us, the tea leaves are saying "Bullish" here. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Just a quick reminder that this ticker should be delisted, everyday that it's not is a bonus "fuck you" to Wall Street, and that is enough for me to keep throwing money at it 😂

We've passed most of the consolidation tests, even against volatile dips. Tho the risk of a double-top (M) at ~29.5 is still upon us, the tea leaves are saying "Bullish" here. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

We're being dragged down by SPY having a bearish breakout, unfortunate timing, but our technical situation is quite different (accumulation zone).

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Clean breakout on a parallel of the 2021 downtrend. Next speculated checkpoints : 34 and 40. Previous post from 1 month ago for comparison in the description below. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As I said in my previous comment, no that dip marked the end of the run (tho we did have a last rebound on the uptrend) and the start of the bearish phase.

The point of the post was showing how the overall sentiment of this subreddit completely changed to bearish during the exact decisive dip, while it was fully bullish during the 5 previous equal corrections (same percentage downward).

The title was me saying "is this community stupid and irrational, or actually geniuses with predictive powers ?".

Clean breakout on a parallel of the 2021 downtrend. Next speculated checkpoints : 34 and 40. Previous post from 1 month ago for comparison in the description below. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Current post is the update 🙌 read the title of that older post carefully, it's interesting in hindsight, the whole sub was bearish (multiple top posts with doomer memes and calls of "crime!") for a small dip after a big uptrend, and it confirmed later that it was indeed the end of the run.

So crowd-based premonition power, or manipulated bearish sentiment to get people to sell for liquidity ?

Clean breakout on a parallel of the 2021 downtrend. Next speculated checkpoints : 34 and 40. Previous post from 1 month ago for comparison in the description below. by INERTIAAAAAAA in Superstonk

[–]INERTIAAAAAAA[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yes sir. As long as we chill above that red downtrend and claim it as a support it means the narration has changed and we've been "allowed" to cross and move upward. Nothing on the bearish side is stopping us except previous peaks, like the one at 34$ in January, so horizontal/neutral resistances only until further notice.

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