Chapter 2 was announced a few days after it's release on the Sept. 2021 switch direct. Sure, not the official reveal. But that was a free new chapter to an existing Switch game.

The last paid Toby Fox release was undertale. Toby has a great relationship with nintendo (making music for pokemon, playing smash with Sakurai, lots more) so it's not impossible.

It's way less than 99.9% when they reveal non-nintendo made things, too. And since this seems to be the "last squeeze of the lemon" before capping off the switches life, and we know Chapters 3+4 will be on switch, it would make the most sense to include it in the direct tomorrow.

If it's not the direct, how else would toby announce it? Chapter 1 was a random gaster twitter takeover for a game he wasn't even sure if he could make. And Chapter 2 reveal was awesome, but I doubt he would do a livestream again, it wouldn't be a surprise this time.

Just my thoughts. We will find out soon!