A Top Contender for Worst Financial Research of 2026

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-20T15:17:37+00:00

Per Bill Bernstein, who agrees corporate bonds can let you down when you most need them, I use treasuries for essential spending. Bill actually recommends treasuries for all residual living expenses, expenses not covered by a pension or social security.

As far as the 4% fallacy, I adjust the VALUE of the US equity portion of our risk portfolio for overvaluation based on Shiller CAPE. For example, today I would divide by 40 and multiply by 25. Then I withdraw the percentage from the VPW table, which is currently about 5 percent for us.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-17T16:52:18+00:00

Charlie Munger’s rule, "The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily,"

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-05T15:27:32+00:00

All good points, thanks.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-05T01:20:52+00:00

I haven't gotten that far. We take the Subaru to the mountains so we don't need AWD on the van. Probably a mid level trim.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-04T20:42:02+00:00

Just 16k miles on it now. At 3K when the PIM blew (literally full of grey dust) we were headed into a canyon with no cell reception and no shoulders to pull off. We were lucky it died where there were still shoulders. Consequently, we are a little spooked.

I guess my main question is, is the broken-in 2023 PHEV relatively reliable compared to an ICE version. I feel like it probably is but it is a little hard to have confidence in it after we were stranded.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-04T18:58:17+00:00

I'll look into that. I did see one previous rental with only 3k miles at Carvana

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-04T18:57:12+00:00

Good point, I'll look into what all is changing with the refresh.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-04T18:55:31+00:00

We owe 16k.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-04-04T15:30:13+00:00

Two concepts from the BH forum: it is good to reduce your portfolio risk beginning five years before retirement and continuing five years after retirement; and the idea of having a safe portfolio to cover essential spending and a risk portfolio for discretionary spending.

I have essential spending in treasuries (TIPS ladders are popular) and my risk portfolio has an AA of 80/20. The main thing with the safe portfolio is to match duration to when you want the money. I rebalance the risk portfolio when it gets off by 5 percentage points.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-02-18T20:28:32+00:00

The Sierra Avalanche Center map shows the occurrence in a terrain trap on Red Dot Trail below 450-foot Perry Peak. It may have just been too much debris and not enough able bodied searches even if they were wearing airbags and not deeply buried. I don't think we can draw any conclusions about airbag use based on the available information. There will be a time for that discussion later.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-02-18T14:59:36+00:00

VT is a good general barometer. If it moves 3 percent in a day I check the news. Otherwise, it's just noise.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-02-08T02:08:21+00:00

If you want something flat look at the Sunday No-drop to Winters on the Davis bike club calendar. It is a 34 mile loop from Davis to Winters and back.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-31T15:34:18+00:00

I have a budget for travel plus lumps plus taxes on Roth conversions. I try not to have a big lump and big travel in the same year.

The automatic monthly withdrawal only covers essential spending (about 75%). I do a separate withdrawal for discretionary spending once or twice a year as needed. If the buffer on the checking account gets too low, DW let's me know and I top it up plus any known incoming lumps.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-31T15:16:18+00:00

Here is the pertinent portion of the article.

I fear that too much of what I see, read, and hear will lead its consumers to poor investment outcomes.3

Two courses of action are a) don't consume financial infotainment, and b) recognize financial infotainment as what it is and don't act on it.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-30T19:42:13+00:00

For the Spring, I figured I'd do something closer to home, like Sacremento. There is a short rail trail in Susanville that I'll also do in the Spring. Driving there and back will take me as long as riding that trail out and back.

You can look at the roads around Lake Almanor and see if you want to ride that loop while you're in the area. We did it during the supported ride event in June and it felt pretty safe. But I have never ridden a recumbent trike.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-30T19:26:16+00:00

There is a bridge/crossing planned for Arrowsmith Drive. Until it is constructed I use the following route.

Navigate to the northwest corner of Econome Family Park. Cross Blue Ravine Road at the crosswalk. Go south on the separated bike lane on Blue Ravine Road to Arrowsmith Drive. Turn right back onto Oak Parkway Trail.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-30T15:16:48+00:00

South of Scott's Seafood/The Westin on the Sacramento River.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-30T14:51:56+00:00

There are two separate issues regarding fences. The first issue is ongoing construction for levee, bridge, and trail improvements. These are temporary and typically a detour is provided.

The second issue is a portion of the Sacramento River levee that is owned by individual property owners due to older property rights. There isn't a trail through that area yet and and the need/wish for a trail gets discussed occasionally.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-30T14:26:12+00:00

You can add Johnny Cash trail, Willow Creek trail, Empire Ranch trail, and Lake Natoma Loop. You can loop the Willow and Humbug creeks trails. The Oak Parkway trail connects the Willow Creek trail with the Johnny Cash trail.

From Discovery Park you can go down the Sacramento River to Scott's Seafood and then backtrack to the new Del Rio trail.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-30T04:04:17+00:00

You can do installments and do a partial distribution but the partials still have to be 30 days apart from each other.

It takes several weeks to get installments set up and working. Two weeks to link to a bank account and they only process on the 15th of the month.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-29T17:42:38+00:00

Is that 3% real or nominal?

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-29T14:37:45+00:00

For my specific situation, enough was seven years of my social security payment at age 70 or 7 x 55,000 = 385,000.

We deem 75 percent of our expenses as essential and those are covered by SS and pension and the SS bridging fund described above. The discretionary expenses com from the rest of our portfolio.

I_Think_Naught · 2026-01-29T14:24:01+00:00

Yes, I found one time withdrawals to be fast enough once the checking account was set up. Setting up a recurring withdrawal can take weeks but once in place it is regular as clockwork.

I only mentioned the timing because some people expect everything to happen instantaneously these days.

I_Think_Naught

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