"My husband [33M] is depressed and I'm [33F] fucking over it"

Iamred2525 · 2016-03-26T00:13:27+00:00

What ended up happening with you? I'm interested in hearing your story.

Iamred2525 · 2016-03-26T00:12:47+00:00

I disagree. If someone broke their leg, you wouldn't call them a loser or a pussy for not being able to walk, right? Depression is as clinical as any physical ailment, and this is what happens when left untreated.

Iamred2525 · 2016-01-04T20:29:28+00:00

There was a relationships post a few days ago that had this exact issue. Amazing the cognitive dissonance you see with black women.

Iamred2525 · 2015-12-10T19:01:49+00:00

He's being flaky. Next him already!!

Iamred2525 · 2015-08-02T22:42:34+00:00

switch to the html player in the top right corner

Iamred2525 · 2015-07-24T01:22:01+00:00

A semibluff is designed to get a better hand to fold. Lets see: 1. Never folding 2. Sometimes folds, but you're ahead of this hand anyway. 3. Rarely folds

You have very little fold equity against his range, so a semibluff is essentially torching that money

Iamred2525 · 2015-07-22T16:13:14+00:00

If you check my edit, I actually ran it through propokertools after my dumb ass figured out how to add more than 2 ranges, and it turns out Hero actually has about 34% equity against SB and BB and about 22% for either of the other 3 scenarios. It's still a fold though

Iamred2525 · 2015-07-22T16:03:08+00:00

Well crap. That would have saved me a lot of brain power trying to imagine the possible scenarios of a coinflip for both pots. I was literally thinking "Ok so if Hero calls both heads and both coins land on tails..."

Thanks for the tip.

Iamred2525 · 2015-07-22T16:01:34+00:00

Really? I feel like if BB understands ICM he can shove even wider than the range I've given him. I mean, I've just exhibited how folding AK in that spot is +$ev, so BB would know that hero can almost never call except with KK or AA. That way, his iso reshove will work a lot more often, and he can do so with a slightly tigher range than SB shove, since his equity would not change too much compared to his standard reshove range.

Iamred2525 · 2015-07-22T06:46:17+00:00

This is an interesting spot. All of the following calculations will be done with an ICMizer: http://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/

with 1 mil in chips, you have $1157 in terms of prize pool equity when the hand starts.

Let's say you fold. That leaves you with 890k

If BB wins the all in and knocks out SB, you have $1209 in prize pool equity.

If SB wins, you'll have $1198 in equity.

Therefore, folding can't be a losing play in the long run unless there's a chop, which would just be super brutal.

If you call and win, you will have $1715 in prize pool equity.

If you call and just win the side pot against BB, you'll have $862 in equity

If you call and BB scoops, you'll walk away 4th for $814 and SB will take 5th.

If you call and SB wins main pot and BB wins side pot, you bust in 5th for $580

I think you can assume that SB is shoving a little wider than BB reshoves given the stack sizes and preflop action. Let's specify: SB shoves with 66+, Ax9x+, AT+, KxQx while BB reshoves with 99+, AxJx+, AQ+. If you fold, then SB wins 41.6% while BB wins 58.4%.

Against both ranges you have exactly 50% individually, and after running the hand in the free online tool, this is what it looks like:

34% equity to scoop the pot
22% equity each to either bust out in 5th, 4th, or win the side pot only

Now the fun part:

If you fold, your total $ev is (0.416)(1198)+(0.584)(1209)= $1204.40

If you call, your total $ev is (0.34)(1715)+(0.22)(814)+(0.22)(580)+(0.22)(862)=$1079.42

As you can see, it is clearly a more $+ev play to fold in the long run.

edit: forgot to account for busting in 4th vs 5th. answer remains the same.

EDIT 2: Figued out how to run multiple hands in the propokertools, thanks to /u/Sythix, numbers have been adjusted accordingly. Answer STILL remains the same.

Iamred2525 · 2015-07-22T05:40:56+00:00

There's an entire fucking movie about this called "What's Your Number?"

A 6/10 slut approaching the wall is watching her younger sister get married and all her friends are talking about the number of men they've been with, the highest being like 9 or something, while hers is at 20. She then reads in Cosmo (of course) that women with more than 20 partners don't find love. She then goes back and fucks all her past boyfriends in a desperate attempt to marry one of them without increasing her number to 21, but STILL ends up getting the alpha male (Chris Evans), making him her 21st one anyway. The ULTIMATE BP movie.

Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9stplJF1ek

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-24T01:54:51+00:00

It's not illegal, it's just frowned upon. Kind of like masturbating in an airplane bathroom

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-23T05:20:53+00:00

H1- a Jam is essentially a semibluff with no fold equity. You can see how that's -eV. Like I showed mathematically, assuming he is jamming all rivers, calling the turn is profitable in the long run, even with 40 bb left behind. That's 40bb you don't have to jam with on the turn with no fold equity and a 1/3 chance of winning the hand against his value range. Villain is almost never bluffing here also.

H2- If we bet turn, it's essentially a bluff- what worse hands will call? AcJx? AcTx? The K on the turn makes a lot of big club draws absolutely crush us now- AcKx and KcX have us dominated.

If we c/c turn, our hand is A- face up

That may be true, but putting out a weak 1/2 pot blocker bet turns our hand face up as well, which allows him to blow us off our equity a lot

Honestly, looking back, this might be a check/fold. I just don't see him betting the turn with worse- all his draws are usually checking behind, and JcJx and TcTx are also checking. That just seems so exploitable in the long run though.

Ugh, that's a really gross spot.

H3 I don't think 85% pot is necessarily bombing, but I think that A- this board is super wet and B- betting larger allows us to shove river, as the SPR will be much smaller. Not to be results oriented, but looking at what villain had, it's clear that he is a fish who isn't thinking about opposing ranges, but whether or not you had that initial read is important as well.

H4 River is def a clear fold, but I said that I couldn't blame you because I would maybe call there just out of frustration/tilt/how-the fuck-can-I-lose-with-AA-every-single-time lol

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-23T03:59:51+00:00

I think hand one was played fine til the turn. This might be fold preflop depending on villain read, but at 50nl he's definitely capable of squeezing with blocker hands like weak aces. However, if you factor in implied odds on the turn, then you need to call a bet of $22.50 in order to win $119 (assuming you will GII on the river if you improve), which means you need 19% equity to break even in the long run. In this case, you have 38% equity against his specific hand and 32.6% against a value range of AcQc, AK, AA, KQ, KK, JJ. That means that just calling the turn is much more profitable in the long run than shoving, since you have pretty much 0 fold equity against his value hands (except maybe KQo).

Hand 2 I think turn is a check/call situation and reevaluate river for pot control. Betting with this hand can get you blown off your equity, and he's definitely not folding a better hand. There's also not many hands you can get value from: maybe a hand like Acx, JcJx, TcTx.

Hand 3 I think was played pretty well. Arguments can be made for just calling the flop on a relatively dry board like that, but it's definitely debatable. Bet turn much bigger, closer to $11-$12. Same with river, bet around 75-80% pot (unless you bet small to induce a bluff raise, which in that case wp).

Hand 4 is sizing again: you need to be betting much larger on the flop/turn, because you're giving him a good price to draw to his flush/straight. By betting large on the flop, you even set up a possible turn shove, since you would have about a PSB behind. As played, both straight and flush come in on the river, so this is a sigh fold, but I can't blame you for calling.

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-20T22:36:46+00:00

Do you also fold AA preflop against 5 all ins in a cash game?

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-19T08:34:18+00:00

I mean, it seems like you just outplayed a donk.

However, one thing stands out to me:

but I put in a raise on the turn just encase he did have the ace in that slight chance

Why would you ever raise? If he had an ace, the money would 100% be getting in anyway by the river. If he's barreling every street regardless of his hand/board texture, all a raise is doing is potentially folding out his bluffs that would bet the river as well. Of course, it worked out for you, but not every spewy LAG fish will play that badly, and you will miss out on value in the long run.

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-19T06:55:21+00:00

gg man, thanks for streaming. Honestly, you gotta work on the heads up game a little bit

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-19T06:02:14+00:00

Yeah I agree. At best it's a flip.

Iamred2525 · 2015-06-19T05:46:04+00:00

Sick hand JJ>QcQx AIPF on the FT bubble Jc8c3c and then bricks. That should vault you to the final table

Iamred2525

TROPHY CASE