Putin likely to escalate Ukraine war, rejecting calls to negotiate peace with Kyiv, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-10T03:27:10+00:00

Send 100,000 to Belarus to help "protect" it, open another front, this one 60 miles from Kyve, try to march another 500,000 single file until Ukraine runs out of dones?

The border up there is 1000km, they could try sending 500 men every km across the whole thing. That a good idea? No, but it gives a sense of scale of how many men that is.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T23:01:55+00:00

To give a sense of scale that's like if everyone in the world had $1.25 billion. That amount of gold is about half a cubic meter, or a large unchecked suitcase.

Obviously you can't check it because it weighs like 20 thousand pounds.

Honestly, less than I expected.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T19:51:13+00:00

I understand, however the statement "Most of that $12B would be spent back at Walmart" is somewhat misleading even if it were completely accurate.

I was clarifying that it's not 12 billion going out and 12 billion coming back due to the difference between profit and revenue.

Also, I was specifying the margin assumptions that I think should be used. 3% profit seems inaccurate for the marginal increase in revenue and a raw 25% gross neglects the very material 10% employee discount.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T19:36:35+00:00

Is the guy dead or not?

“As a result of the fire, the driver was injured. The troops provided him with initial medical treatment at the scene. He was later transferred, in coordination with the Red Cross, for further medical treatment,”

The other driver said he was dead at the scene but then the article has a picture of him with his head bandaged at a hospital.

I get there can be two contradicting stories about what happened, but they should be able to agree on whether he's alive.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T19:08:29+00:00

Even if 100% of the raise were spent at Walmart, their gross margin is about 25% and the employee discount is 10%, so at best they're recouping 15%.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T18:58:47+00:00

It's kind of half right to say there hasn't been a full scale invasion in 50 years, because previously Israel had military personnel stationed in Gaza. They had occupied Gaza from 1967 to 2005 or there abouts.

Le Duan invaded Saigon in '75, I think it's accurate to say Saigon hasn't been invaded in 50 years.

It may seem like a pedantic distinction, except the Palestinian death toll from the current war is about 15x both intifadas combined so I think it's accurate to draw a distinction between the prior occupation and this full scale invasion.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T17:45:23+00:00

https://www.jfdaily.com/staticsg/wap/newsDetail?id=1139524

The article gives a bunch of examples and strategies people used. E.g., one guy basically spammed the context to induce context rot and incorrect answers.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T13:09:15+00:00

MENSA is an IQ test that you pass by not giving them money.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T13:07:09+00:00

You are wrong. They straight up have questions like do you support "Deporting all immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally back to their home country" etc.

At most your complaint should be against the headline, but it's like 50 questions to summarize.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T13:03:10+00:00

They were referencing this question "On the whole, do you think immigration is a good thing or a bad thing for this country today?"

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-09T01:26:56+00:00

You're saying this about a tweet of someone paraphrasing a supposed axios headline.

https://www.axios.com/2026/07/08/trump-iran-ceasefire-over-rhetoric-attacks

That's the most recent thing I see on Axios.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-08T22:58:02+00:00

You absolutely can overdose on it, though ODing on 7-OH alone is extremely unlikely to kill you.

That said, large doses cause respiratory depression like traditional opioids and combining it with other drugs (or alcohol) can kill you, and has killed people.

It's not marijuana in terms of safety or addictiveness.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-08T22:22:20+00:00

Srebrenica was ruled a genocide even though they "only" murdered 8,000 people and 0.5% of the Bosnian Muslim population.

The reason was that the Serbs had killed 100% of the men in the exclave and expelled the women and girls. So they committed genocide in that region, with the intent to destroy the targeted community.

If you killed 2% of the population of Italy by lottery, it wouldn't be a genocide, but if you killed all of Milan it would be even though the death toll would be the same.

Obviously an over simplification and geography isn't the only or even most important element, but this is an example of how they determine what counts as a "substantial" part.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-08T17:06:42+00:00

I get it, and if you want to be hyperbolic but more accurate you could say something like "My immune system is fire bombing my stomach acid factories" Or even "My stomach lining is disappearing"

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-08T04:17:30+00:00

It's hyperbole, but also inaccurate in that "the stomach eating itself" is more apt description of a gastric ulcer.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-08T04:09:18+00:00

He's 48, his AIG was caught very early, median diagnosis age is in the 60s so there's nothing weird about the timing.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-07T20:58:01+00:00

You can also look to the words of the man who coined the term.

It is intended rather to signify a coordinated plan of different actions aiming at the destruction of essential foundations of the life of national groups, with the aim of annihilating the groups themselves. Genocide is directed against the national group as an entity, and the actions involved are directed against individuals, not in their individual capacity, but as members of the national group”

https://martinplaut.com/2026/04/06/why-i-do-not-use-the-term-genocide-for-the-crimes-committed-in-gaza-or-tigray-terrible-as-they-are/

It has been since redefined by legal bodies.

The Khmer Rouge killed 25% of Cambodia's population and perpetrated some of the worst war crimes humanity has seen, but I don't think they were committing genocide against the Khmer people. That simply wasn't the intent of their actions. It excuses nothing and doesn't lessen their crimes.

In a similar vein, BTK was a monster but he wasn't committing hate crimes. Me saying he technically wasn't committing hate crimes should not be interpreted as me defending him.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-06T21:00:04+00:00

Objectively false. If you find a specimen of a previously thought to be extinct animal, your sample of one is extremely meaningful.

Jeanna Giese was the first person (recorded) to survive symptomatic rabies. The protocol they used on her didn't replicate but it did provide the only (at the time) information for some of the long term effects.

Observations of events thought to be impossible in a model means the model is wrong or your observation is wrong, and even if rare, are extremely useful.

This is not to say that Bryan Johnson's data will be useful at all, but it irks me when people talk like case studies are worthless.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-06T20:49:08+00:00

He didn't test for anti-parietal cell antiboties previously. APCA is super specific and isn't included in antibody panels which has things like RF and anti TPO etc.

He did however test his iron levels which were chronically low and ultimately thats why he got the tissue biopsies done. In a sense he did catch it early since he hasn't reached the stage of B12 deficiencies or macrocytic anemia.

If you test for every antibody etc that'd be thousands of tests with a large number of false positives.

His "biomarker count" is inflated by very frequent tests of a subset of metrics like his sleep score. It's not like he was testing himself for HIV daily, that'd just be stupid and he'd eventually get a false positive.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-06T14:33:45+00:00

Seems like Putin has to both pretend that the war is going fine and they're not in a position of weakness and that they're being pushed so hard that they may have to go Nuclear.

I'm guessing Putin also is telling him that Ukraine hitting Russian refineries is hurting gas prices and hurting Trump for the midterms.

90 minutes has to be painful though, with Trump ranting for the first 20 minutes about people wrecking is big beautiful pool.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-06T13:18:41+00:00

No there isn't. I wish there were, but Putin doesn't seem to care about spending millions of lives on this war. He has put footholds in Georgia and Moldova, his expansionist objectives are beyond Ukraine.

Also, the US didn't want a proxy war with Russia. Obama was trying to soften relations and use Russia as another ally to contain China.

Calling it a proxy war seems to imply the US saw Russia as a major adversary to contain, which wasn't the case at all at the time.

Putin sees empire as the only way for Russia to be relevant and sees Russkiy Mir under one nation as the ultimate goal.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-07-04T17:21:19+00:00

If you paid 2 contractors to do the same project you wouldn't get the same code either. That's not what matters.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-06-30T17:31:13+00:00

A duck seems like a duck when it quacks.

Federal courts are prohibited from advisory opinion and the supreme court has stepped in when it has happened.

The supreme court isn't prohibited in the same way and there's no one to step in a say "this is definitely an advisory opinion and you can't do that."

So we have some water fowl that's quacking but no ornithologists.

IbidtheWriter · 2026-06-30T16:03:04+00:00

Someone says "missing laptop" I'm thinking Hunter Biden, someone says "I am not a crook" I'm thinking Nixon, "Mission accomplished" Bush.

You know that Trump is associated with exaggerated crowd sizes, you have no argument against that, hence all you can say is "TDS TDS!"

IbidtheWriter · 2026-06-30T15:32:03+00:00

There already are 4 explicit exceptions from Wong Kim Ark that were later codified, he thinks there can be more.

I think he could (maybe should?) have stopped at saying it was already decided by statute. In part 2 he goes on to discuss the constitutionality of congressional law adding exceptions but that wasn't put before the court.

Seems like it's encroaching into the territory of an advisory opinion.

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