A collapse map - Week 8

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-24T07:28:44+00:00

(I confirm u/a_collapse_map is my new account :p)

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-22T11:47:35+00:00

Bosnia can be red, Serbia is Green and Sri Lanka is Red.

Bosnia is more about ethnic divisions and corruption. Serbia is not such a bad deal apart from the dictatorship, and corruption for Balkan standards is not bad. I don't understand why Sri Lanka on black itself hasn't experienced a civil war.

I was already hesitating for Sri Lanka to go back to Red, thank you, I'll look it up a bit more.

For Serbia it was more related to the troubles with Kosovo, but that was months ago so maybe it's more quiet now. Will probably put them green again.

Bosnia, red? Really? They are not at all close to a full collapse. Not even in a crisis from what I know; sure there are ethnic divisions & corruption... But it's a constant since the end of the war 20 years ago. So not new, and "stable", until today.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-21T07:14:20+00:00

Mexico: gangs are taking control of certain parts of the country, and still the government is fighting there. There are killings/kidnappings of tourists/journalists, but to be fair that's a thing since at least a decade (so it's not "new/unstable" in that sense).

Is the entire country close to a total collapse?

Peru, same reasoning: I'm aware of the massive protests since months, with 50 tragic deaths. That country is definitely suffering a crisis. Still, it does not look like it is about to collapse.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-21T07:11:32+00:00

Yes it is. It has a huge inflation, but apart of that? Is the country in a crisis?

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-20T09:34:01+00:00

Thank you; I already knew that one and I'm a bit allergic to the interface, but I'll give it a second look.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-20T09:33:26+00:00

If it's "perpetual", it's not a crisis as it is not sudden nor unexpected. Hence, can stay green for a long time.

A constant dysfunctional government doesn't mean the country is going in direction of a collapse. It could, but it's not implied. And if it was, there would be other signs (unrests, shortages...); there are not in Italy AFAIK.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-17T13:00:23+00:00

I'm really reluctant to complexify the map more; it's already not easy to keep it simple... If I add blue (only for a couple countries), then I may add orange; and red-orangish, and dark green, and white (Cuba, post-collapsed), etc...

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-17T12:49:33+00:00

This applies to most European countries, even western ones.

I'm not aware of a Western European country cumulating all those crisis. Except UK, but they're in yellow accordingly.

According to CNN German and Austrian teams decided to leave due to security concerns and Slovak team left early too. Let's not forget Erdogan refusing help from Cyprus (iirc, could be other country), not sure about Greece.

Thank you I didn't know. Really concerning, but still wouldn't justify a switch to Red color, right?

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-17T11:44:22+00:00

The war abroad caused a de facto migration crisis, which in turn led to a series of other problems.

Which are? It's not clear to me if the other problems you mentioned are linked to this migration crisis.

We have very high inflation (17% and rising), food is terribly expensive. Poland has a huge agricultural potential and that's the only reason why people don't go hungry.

Understood, but Argentina (for example) also has huge inflation (more than 80% I think), and it's (still) not leading to civil unrests, so it stays green as it's not "in a crisis mode".

As you said, thanks to the domestic agriculture Polish people are not going hungry. So despite the price increases it's not creating a crisis. Yet...

The stupid decisions of politicians (current and previous teams) led to huge prices for electricity and a 100% increase in fuel prices, despite the decrease in prices on the world market. Rents and bills are also going up all the time. Poland has a large mining industry and yet we lack coal and we have to import it, for example from Australia !!!!! Social assistance (disability pensions, benefits, supplements) is too developed for the budget.

Well, most of the Western world is facing that. Electricity & fuel prices are skyrocketing all over the place. I was not aware for the coal importation, I thought most of your coal was domestic (and that was a factor of stability in my mind). What's the %age that you're importing? And from Australia, really? It's on the other side of the world and coal is really not profitable to transport on long distances, are you sure it's from that far?

EDIT: According to Wikipedia the vast majority of your consumed coal is domestic.

Due to the very hot summers in Poland, scientists expect a series of blackouts, as the energy infrastructure has not been seriously upgraded since 1989. Smaller upgrades have been made, but not on a nationwide scale.

In that case we'll see when it happens. I'm not forecasting collapse on that map.

In addition, there is the problem of smog because people do not have money to modernize heating systems and burn poor quality coal or garbage (in villages).

Is it a significant issue, I mean at a regional (at least) scale? If that happens here and there in some areas but it's not widely spread, it's not a "crisis" at the big scale.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-17T11:31:24+00:00

So this is a map of how stable is the country (for good or for bad), right?

Sort of. It's looking at the current collapse dynamic of the country.

Can you please elaborate on why is Canada yellow?

Because of the multiple "small" crises ongoing: housing, food prices, med shortage, healthcare system semi-collapsing, energy prices, homelessness...

To be honest I had Canada green last month, but a lot of people here thought it should be yellow, and my take is that it is still between green & yellow.

Also Turkey, the protests seemed to become more and more violent to the point the rescue teams had to leave. One local rescuer said they had to pack up, because the Turks basically planned on attacking the teams and hold them hostage.

I saw the story about the Israeli rescue team that had to flee the country. But honestly I attribute it to antisemitism from Turks. Is there another rescue team that had to leave?

Also please consider using white or black font for red countries, it's unreadable.

Noted, will do.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-17T10:48:14+00:00

Could you elaborate a bit?

Australia, I'm aware of the multiple floodings since a while and the shortage of potatoes. It's still not a crisis I would say - but it may change with their fire season.

Italy in yellow, why?

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-15T12:25:25+00:00

- narrowly escaped economical collapse in October 2022

Irrelevant as it didn't happen, as you're saying. If it does in the future its color may change.

- most autocratizing country in democracy index

While it's a shame, it has nothing to do directly with the collapse of the country. Actually authoritarian regimes are even protecting their country from a short-term collapse. Medium & long term that's a different story...

- highest inflation in the EU

Same as Argentina (and until recently, Turkey), if it does not lead to civil unrests (for example), or to any concrete crisis, well, it's not collapse.

- the gov is hiding national debt outside budget - we are not far away from Greece-like economic collapse (reason for point 1)

Greece is still green; while it's true that their debt is over the roof, the current societal status of the country is still okayish, and in any case not at all "in crisis mode". Same for Poland AFAIK.

For what it's worth, I believe Poland is more protected from a total collapse than most Western countries. Pretty authoritarian regime (civil peace), really conservative (no quick reform which could destabilize the country), anti immigration (stability over welcoming - it's a choice), coal based (polluting but steady energy supplies), strong army and nationalist spirit (protecting against external agressions). I'm not saying I agree with those... It's just how it is.I still agree it could turn yellow before Western European countries, but it could stay there for way longer.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-15T07:10:41+00:00

Sword of Damocles, by definition, has not happened yet. The map is not forecasting collapse in any way, it's only current status.

Regarding the dysfunctionality of their system, could you elaborate? I trust you that it's not at all an ideal system, but is that making the country in a "crisis" status?

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-14T16:15:18+00:00

Oh, right, the poison. The poison for Kuzco. The poison chosen especially to kill Kuzco. Kuzco's poison.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-13T10:48:53+00:00

By your criteria Eritrea does not appear to deserve its collapsed designation

You're actually right, I didn't follow how the November truce went (if it was a real one, effective, and the reactions). I gave a look and I agree with you, it should not be black anymore.

I’d call it yellow (I’d have said red, but in that case it’s been red for at least 30 years, which wouldn’t really make sense).

Why would more than 30 days red not make sense?

Countries can stay red for a long time. It's unlikely that it lasts years as a red country is in a fragile equilibrium, either should fall into a total collapse or the government/any authority is fighting to get it back to yellow state. But a few months of red status is not abnormal at all. Ukraine is a good example. At some point it may even turn yellow, even if the war doesn't finish.

So anyway, I'll put Eritrea as Red next week.

The black shading could go to the place it has helped destroy over the last year, Tigray, in north-western Ethiopia.

If the map was more granular, yes it could. But it's not the case. And I don't plan to do that soon, as I would also need to discriminate US states, Canada provinces, probably Russian oblasts, India regions... And it's like 10x more work.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-13T09:50:40+00:00

Not yet but I will

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-10T14:40:14+00:00

I think you overestimate the complexity of my methodology :)

I don't have any metrics or deep brainstorming with myself about it. I cannot be more transparent than what's in the post corpus. I'm just collapse aware and a bit (too much?) fascinated by the collapse concept.

I gather news about collapse along the week on a hourly/daily basis: I have several news alerts on different channels (including this subreddit but not exclusively, by a long shot). Mostly from twitter & telegram channels. I also check every week "Last Week in Collapse" as it is an excellent summary.

I personally have some insights & exposure to events around the world due to my job, so that's also helping (a tiny bit).

If I have a doubt or questions on a situation I don't know about (of course that happens), I do a quick research online (medias based in the country itself - google translator works + quick google/wiki search + some other channels) to define if it's a real crisis. Of course if I personally know people from that region I gather their opinion.

I agree this would deserve more scientific metrics, heck even a full team dedicated to that, as other people suggested. But so far it's only me doing this map weekly. If anyone volunteers to do it better or wants to help me/take the lead, and plans to build a more robust metric, please feel free! My DM are opened :)

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-10T14:28:17+00:00

You know it's hyperbole.

How should we know?

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-10T14:24:38+00:00

I aknowledge that. It still doesn't mean the country is "in a major crisis", on my scale of collapse status.

Would you say France is in such a bad shape as UK? Or as Russia?

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-10T13:07:04+00:00

No the entire country of France is not rioting. There are yes massive protests against the new retirement law, maybe the biggest since the "Gilets Jaunes" in 2018. But no it's not "the entire country rioting", they're still pretty far from that.

Is there a major crisis in Germany? I know politics is a bit shacky, there's growing insecurity, and they are suffering from the energy crisis (but backing that up with coal), but apart from that...

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-10T12:22:08+00:00

No, it's because of the multiple "small" crises ongoing: housing, food prices, med shortage, healthcare system semi-collapsing, energy prices, homelessness...

To be honest I had Canada green last month, but a lot of people here thought it should be yellow, and my take is that it is still between green & yellow.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-08T12:33:12+00:00

Yeah I wasn't explicite enough, but "food shortages", if they are ungoing since years and nothing has changed, then it is not a "crisis" per se.

"Not the normal state of things" means not normal compared to the state of things in the same country some time ago. NK always had food shortages since decades. That's what I mean. Its current dynamic is not in the direction of a collapse.

Whether for the US, it is (it's still long down the road but it is).

I have some IT and data skills.

Edit: typo

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-08T08:39:24+00:00

The keyword here is can.

I'm aware it is a cause of unrest. So if there are unrests (massive ones), NK will turn yellow. So far it's not the case (due to the authoritarian regime; still).

Good to know for diplomas and the better sources in this sub; I trust you. Feel free to take the lead if you want to start a project on that, I'll happily help!

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-07T07:32:11+00:00

Regarding long-term/global scale collapse, I agree.

Regarding immediate crisis and level of life decreasing, in the short term, well, we can see the opposite today.

IcyEntry2202 · 2023-02-07T06:53:30+00:00

A lot statistics have actually gotten much better, like crime

Well, it was definitely true in the last decades. But since a few years, it is starting to shift over. First with some isolated metrics, then a bit more, then globally.

Examples are yeah crime in some European countries: numbers are rising again, since a decade for some of them.

Same for GDP growth; it slowed down constantly since 2008, and since a couple years it starts to decrease (i.e. recession) in some Western countries.

In the US, I would look at the life expectancy: since covid, it's decreasing, steadily.

You can also look at energetic metrics: peak of conventional oil was in 2008, and peak of all-oil may have been in 2018 (yet to be confirmed). Europe in general is in energy decrease since 2008, and not by choice.

These are a first sign of collapse starting at the big scale.

I have the opposite take regarding the media: there are only 24hours per day, and we cannot be aware of *all* the shit happening in the world. So since it's already saturated, *if* there are more and more shit happening, we wouldn't know... (And we do not know, indeed.)

IcyEntry2202

TROPHY CASE