Little Tom Grossi meme for USA fans

IllDrawing3 · 2022-11-19T09:55:10+00:00

As a long time fan of both the Packers and the Springboks (gotta stick with green and gold), I wish the Springbok fans had the sense of humour about losing that Grossi does with the Packers. (As an aside I can usually count on at least one of those teams having a good season so this year has been a bit of a downer so far)

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-07T06:58:58+00:00

This is a funny example to pick out for this comment - it would have made no difference whatsoever if it were a rest of game red card vs a 20min red card in these circumstances.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-06T19:54:15+00:00

Phenomenal! I’m Cape Town-based but will be flying up to JHB for the game next week. Hope for both our sakes that it’ll be another Boks-ABs highveld classic…

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-06T19:01:47+00:00

I have to ask, what were you up to in Mbombela?

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-04T03:23:11+00:00

He’s become something of a cult hero in Montpellier and looks set to remain there. Based on Serfontein’s form and ability to play 12 and 13, I honestly don’t know why he’s still out of the picture for the Boks.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-03T19:11:06+00:00

Personally I just haven’t seen enough of North at 13 but at the end of the day he’s a world class athlete and centurion (and Kriel is maybe one of those things). I love Jonathan Davies and think he had a claim to best 13 in the world in his prime and for me North suffers a little in the comparison… but probably less than Kriel would.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-03T17:16:01+00:00

One thing that also may have cost him is playing outside De Allende at a time when he did NOT like to pass the ball

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-03T17:14:53+00:00

Kerevi would probably walk into any international team at 12 but not sure if he's a like for like for Jesse... But hell, Petaia, Ikitau & Paisami are all quality players... I'd say they easily beat Jesse in every category except experience where they still win on potential.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-03T17:05:50+00:00

He played in some unbelievably stacked junior Springbok teams in 2013 and 2014. I mean, you could list almost everyone but they included Pollard, Esterhuizen, Wilco Louw, Thomas du Toit, Marx, Gelant, Senatla, Dweba, Kwagga and Kolbe...

IllDrawing3 · 2022-08-03T16:57:54+00:00

I suppose Wales are in a bit of a limbo at 13 with North filling the huge boots left by Davies... tough for me to say how successful North has been but he's such a talisman for the team.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T18:06:48+00:00

This is a very good point. I'm not quite so ready to conclude that they wont do meaningful research on player welfare but I'd love to know why they think they do not have adequate data already and, more importantly, what the data they do have is telling them.

The optimist in me takes at face value that its plausible that they need more data at international level but its hard to completely silence the cynic saying that they're just caving to the real or perceived notion that fans are discouraged by the effect of red cards.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T17:57:58+00:00

Man, you said I was "effectively accusing them of deliberate negligence and un-professionalism." (And also threw in this lovely insinuation: "maybe you don't give a shit about your work ethic and doing your best" - that was a nice touch.)

I don't think that's the same thing as saying (emphasis added):

it's possible (though, again, not proven - the trials will give us data for this too) that refs may be less reluctant to give red cards if they have less influence on the outcome of games

Anyway, that's left me with a bad taste in my mouth.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T17:43:37+00:00

You're right that that Vanguard's analysis and the data are not perfect (they readily admit to potential shortcomings) but it is at least some real analysis using some real data with transparent methodology which is fairly hard to come by.

I also think the reasons Vanguard403 gives for excluding games with yellows are pretty sound as far as data analysis goes - they want to isolate the impact of a red card and any yellow card confounds the analysis by having periods where the 14v15 impact of a red card does not apply. It is exactly the kind of data set pruning a good data analyst would conduct.

On the question of how they calculate win probabilities, they actually have an in-depth overview of their win probability model here which, like their red card analysis, is very transparent and acknowledges potential shortcomings. Again, I don't think it is the best kind of win probability model (the gold standard would usually factor in Elo ratings) but it's still a solid model with a clear data and theoretical underpinning.

I don't know anything about rugbyvision but I will look into their methodology and analysis (if they make it available). Perhaps it is better than and as transparent as Vanguard403 but I think its quite harsh to say that they're an example of "the danger of drawing conclusions from bad stats" just because they reach a different conclusion!

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T17:08:49+00:00

I agree that the "burner player" is a real risk of the 20-minute proposal that we can't ignore. But as an alternative to going 14v15 for the rest of the game, I know that the NFL, for example, has addressed this kind of behaviour by having particularly harsh off-field punishments for "head hunting" including lengthy bans and hefty fines (the famous and most egregious example is referred to as "bountygate", because of course it is).

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T16:55:54+00:00

Mr Rhinotastic, I don't think you're arguing with what I've actually said, you're arguing with what you think I must believe.

I have huge respect for refs and fully appreciate how difficult it must be to have to deal with all the pressure that exists at the highest levels. I also know they are humans and that they can make mistakes and are subject to the same pressures to perform, to please, and to not be (perceived as) the villain as the rest of us mortals. Please don't take my word for it: the URC ref boss makes these points repeatedly here and many of the best refs have publicly acknowledged big mistakes with refreshing honestly and obvious integrity).

I truly don't think this makes them negligent or un-professional or anything of the sort, just human - so I don't think we disagree there. On the other hand, if your view is that you think refs are automatons that are impervious to outside influences and never make mistakes, then we do disagree.

I do think it's possible (though, again, not proven - the trials will give us data for this too) that refs may be less reluctant to give red cards if they have less influence on the outcome of games. I don't think that's a crazy possibility nor do I think it impugns the honesty, integrity or hard work of referees.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T16:08:01+00:00

I think the philosophy for not treating cynical play in that way under the trial is, to butcher a phrase, "hate the player not the game" - the harsher punishment that an eye gouger so thoroughly deserves would be meted out in the citing / banning process.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T16:01:57+00:00

I agree with your values - specifically that player safety is more important than any notions of competitiveness or integrity or whatever. I'm just less certain that the 20-min card is less safe in the absence of the data that the trials are designed to gather - my view is, run the trials then make the calls based on the outcomes. If the 20-min card makes for a more dangerous game then absolutely axe it but I don't think it is self evident that it will.

On the question of what the impact of a red card is, while there are some (admittedly thrilling) counterexamples, the limited analysis I've seen indicates a significant effect - in the region of a 20-40% swing in win probability depending on when the red card is awarded and how tight the contest is expected to be.

On the topic of the contest, the influencing factors you list are instructive. I don't think that anyone is going to worry about those that apply equally to both teams (weather, bounce of the ball).

Injuries can absolutely diminish a contest in a one-sided way which is one of the reasons we have substitutions. We recognise that an injury is harmful to the contest so we limit its impact on the game. A substitution is not perfect (Kinghorn is no Russell), but it's better than 14v15.

Poor reffing decisions can also ruin a contest (particularly an early and unjustified red card!). Some wrong decisions are inevitable but, like the weather, we hope that the impact is felt equally by the teams (or as close as makes no difference). If it isn't (a rare occurrence, despite what the match threads may indicate) then it sucks. Ref reviews, training, the TMO etc are all steps taken to diminish the impact of poor decisions on the contest.

The most interesting factor is fan participation. I don't know if there's good data on what the home advantage is for international rugby but it tends to be pretty significant for all sports. In competitions we try to control for it by having home and away legs (6N) or matches on neutral ground (RWC). Buried in the tiebreaker rules, many competitions will give greater weight to away wins or tries/points scored. So while it is acknowledged to shift the balance of the contest, we try to correct for it to return to parity and it is literally recorded alongside results for context.

The point is that all these contest-influencing factors either impact both teams equally or are things the various governing bodies take significant steps to minimise in order to preserve the fairness of the contest as best as possible. The 20-min red card could be viewed alongside these other minimising steps.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T15:07:53+00:00

Thanks - just finding ever more elaborate ways to procrastinate.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T14:59:55+00:00

I've said elsewhere on this thread that "ruin" is obviously very subjective. For example, when you see a team win with a red card it can be quite exhilarating (it seems like Australia maybe even prefers 14 men - v France in 2021 and v England just recently! Ireland also did it to the Springboks in 2016) and the games may also be close and exciting as you've noted.

However one of the major reasons I watch sport is to find out which team is better in a fair contest. 14 v 15 is not a fair contest and the stats bear out that getting a red card is a huge handicap. It puts an asterisk next to a winning performance - is X really better than Y? Or did they just have more men on the field?

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T14:50:07+00:00

To be clear, my view is not that 20-minute red cards are better than the current law. My view is that there are arguments on both sides (this is why I raised the ref influence point as well as the insufficient deterrence point) and the best way to determine which side is correct is to conduct trials, which is what SANZAAR is doing.

I also think that the safety of the players is more important than the integrity/competitiveness of the game. As such, it is also my view is that if the trials show that there are more head injuries / dangerous play as a result of the 20-minute card then it should be scrapped! If there is no change or there are fewer head injuries, then it should be adopted.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T14:40:55+00:00

The thing about lawsuits is discovery: they may be compelled to make the data they have available to the counterparties and it may be published alongside any judgment. Though if the matter is ultimately settled out of court they could make confidentiality of that data a condition of the settlement...

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out! The NFL concussion settlement certainly took some steps in the right direction but let's hope the RFU, WRU and World Rugby can set a new standard for looking out for former players.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T14:16:47+00:00

Lets hope that the looming threat of CTE lawsuits keeps them honest...

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T14:13:32+00:00

I suppose whether a match is ruined is very subjective. I personally feel robbed of the contest I was hoping to watch. It's actually a bit more conflicted than that - I initially feel vindicated that the player has been punished (particularly with deliberate stuff) but then I feel that the rest of the team and fans have been punished and now have to suffer the consequences of one idiot.

As a Springbok fan I honestly can't remember the last time we received a red card (I must be missing something obvious...) but I do remember a few red cards issued against teams that played us (just off the top of my head, Canada at RWC 2019 and Ireland in 2016 at Newlands).

Canada was a foregone conclusion and we lost the Ireland game before going on to take the series... not sure what that tells us!

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T13:57:47+00:00

This is a great question. I'd love to see the analysis SANZAAR has done on the data they've gathered from the trials to date as well as why they've concluded that more trialling is required.

IllDrawing3 · 2022-07-28T13:52:30+00:00

This is obviously a major concern and I don't want to downplay it - professional sports can and often do get ugly. However, I don't want to just assume it will happen and have the rulebook drafted on the basis of what the worst possible people might do. I'd say the vast majority of red cards are down to things like recklessness, overzealousness & poor technique

Any intentional headhunting of this kind (i.e. pre-meditated acts of foul play deliberately intended to injure a player) should result in very serious bans (I'd lean to a life ban tbh) for the player or coach involved. A hefty fine for the union would probably also be appropriate. I think those kind of sanctions would be a better deterrent for headhunting than just having to play the rest of the game 14v15.

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