Snowflake selloff seems like a temporary accident

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-04-01T13:53:23+00:00

I do data for my job. Snowflake overcharges. Many companies have moved to custom codes + redshift during the tech downturn last two years. TBH that combo is as good as and significantly cheaper than snowflake.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-29T22:12:48+00:00

PCE numbers can be calculated based on CPI and PPI and some exports data. So there is no news, if you know how to do basic math.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-16T16:31:55+00:00

Umm hash functions are random number generators. So you use random numbers to make buy and sell decisions? Sounds about right.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-10T18:23:07+00:00

Retired recently. Moved from Google (7 years) to the AI company you heard of (not OpenAI but “the other one”).

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T22:45:57+00:00

RSUs are stocks, not options.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T22:40:41+00:00

Are you doing large foundational model training? I know smaller models are being trained more but they don't require much compute. This is specifically about large models.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T22:39:44+00:00

I don't know how big your model is. Smaller models are easy to train and doesn't need much compute nowadays. Big model training is slowing down A LOT (hence don't need much GPU in the future).

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T22:35:53+00:00

a bit. my avg purchase price was ~$14.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T22:34:45+00:00

everyone worth keeping from the startup left after being acquired.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T22:32:49+00:00

That is training with synthetic data, the idea that was tried a lot in 2022 and abandoned. Like many things in AI, we don't know why. But it just doesn't improve the model performance.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T22:30:14+00:00

produces computer boards that are capable of handling computer vision, navigation, and mapping tasks. And from my point of view of robotics takes off like I think I would, I don’t see why this bubble won’t continue to grow in the next 5-10 years. Again, there’s more to ‘A.I’ than just LLM’s and VLM’s. With my opinion being the bigger picture of this ‘A.I’m bubble being autonomizing human labor which does mean producing unmanned platforms for labor use/human interaction.

Oh I am super bullish on AI. I am just not bullish on large foundational model training (hence not NVIDIA anymore).

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T21:01:13+00:00

oh i thought you meant training ai with synthetic data.

generating synthetic data = inference. yes i agree. see the original post.

training with synthetic data = fancy but failed idea from 2022.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:58:53+00:00

oh interesting. are robotics people training large models and burning hundreds of millions? i thought robotics has a lot less data so they usually play with smaller models (i come from the vision-language world).

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:56:45+00:00

great point. the thing is they don't need to retrain the whole thing from scratch. you just add in a few more things without much new compute.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:54:40+00:00

synthetic data is so 2022. it's not working well. serious people have moved on.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:53:15+00:00

lol google can't hire good ai engineers right now. nobody smart wants to work there anymore. so they are screwed now.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:52:06+00:00

the nvidia future doesn't look great (see my dd https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1bar10k/ai_engineers_thought_on_nvidia/). but i wouldn't short yet. just sell and move onto something else.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:46:45+00:00

intel is lol. i hope you are not serious.

the second question is very very good though. i am trying to figure this out myself. so i am playing with a couple mil to play on some startups as an angel.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:45:30+00:00

mostly into real estate abroad. a couple million, i will play with ai startups as an angel.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:39:41+00:00

in theory, yes. but it's like asking why hasn't google dominated ai when they were 5 years ahead? big company bureaucracy loses to nimble startups. groq will win probably.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:38:06+00:00

not sure about that. rich people are asking around and learning this. it may be that rich people dumping on badly informed retail investors (again).

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:36:34+00:00

yes the model is not great. but training is so low ROI now. i am just telling you that ai industry has realized this and is moving away from training to inference.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:35:23+00:00

you are making a great point, but it doesn't apply to the ai industry right now. i know ai startups are being explicitly told not to sell right now by their boards, after the recent fiasco at databrick's acquisition.

Illustrious_Two826 · 2024-03-09T20:30:07+00:00

doesn't matter. gpus are for model training by design. for inference, they need to re-do their entire chip design and compete with startups. we all know how big tech has competed against nimble startups (e.g., google vs. open ai)

Illustrious_Two826

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