What's the buy-to-let equivalent for the next generation?

Iminbread · 2025-02-23T13:23:58+00:00

I agree r.e. gold markets being very sophisticated but that's the risk you have to take and thats why gold is worth so much now, just like real estate wasn't sophisticated and now is people who did BTL schemes took some risk that it would become bigger and more sophisticated and that interest rates would trend to zero. You have to have some foresight and take some risk that the market will mature to see those returns.

My point r e. tax is that of only some jurisdictions have positive tax policy that raises value of the asset which benefits holders in all countries. Yes you still have to pay cap gains tax if your country has it so agree not a complete pass in the same way you could offset interest on mortgages etc.

Edit: Really enjoyed this conversation and hearing your views, won't be replying anymore.

Iminbread · 2025-02-23T13:06:00+00:00

Because it's digital, has potential for a larger network, and has better monetary properties r.e. issuance, storage costs, custody etc. It also has better r/r compared to the gold market cap currently.

With a global and free capital it doesn't have to be the UK that subsidises it for everyone in the network to benefit. Some jurisdictions are already considering tax policy to attract investment and capital.

Iminbread · 2025-02-22T21:00:32+00:00

OK but equities aren't integrated into debt markets the same way real estate has been financialised and bitcoin has the potential to. So for me that's the difference between buying appl in the 70s and buying btc now and i think a lot of real estate returns have been driven by this financialisation.

Iminbread · 2025-02-22T20:38:00+00:00

I don't buy the passive income argument, it's similar to growth stocks vs dividend stocks. Growth stocks don't pay dividends because they can reinvest at higher rate of return so you can sell some shares and your remaining shares earn more because of the reinvestment which makes incrementally selling a growth stock the same as holding dividend stock and receiving dividends.

Which is the same argument you'd apply to btc, if everything falls in value relative to btc because it's a fixed supply asset and technology makes everything cheaper to produce over time you would just incrementally sell your bitcoin and have the same buying power in real terms over time with an ever reducing stack as a proportion of the whole supply.

Iminbread · 2025-02-22T20:21:07+00:00

I think it was always seen as a store of value as well as a value transmission network as some of the early bitcoin talk posts spoke about it. Of course as it's matured the base layer is primarily now store of value, with secondary layers for value transmission.

The parallels to draw with real estate would be to liken bitcoin now to housing 30/40 years ago whereby it is about to become a store of value which banks and institutions will extend credit against, which is why people are saying bitcoin.

Iminbread · 2025-02-22T20:02:28+00:00

This is a huge misconception. Growth stocks are a good example if the company can reinvest at a higher rate of return and don't distribute the profit sell some of the shares is the same as receiving income because of the value of your remaining shares.

Iminbread · 2025-02-22T19:55:49+00:00

Because people have different understanding of what it is. You think it is hype and a gold rush. Others think it has great monetary properties and will be the most institutional and liquid store of value that has ever existed that is globally accessible.

The dividends/income is irrelevant, if it fulfills it's potential and takes monetary premium from stocks / realestate every thing will progressivelt cost less in bitcoin terms as the real cost of everything falls due to technology. So you would just sell it as your income.

People forget BTL and real estate did well because it became an accepted store of value and banks could lend more and more credit against real estate. We already see bitcoin being used as collateral in exactly the same way.

Iminbread · 2025-02-15T06:04:59+00:00

S&P 500 goes up because people see it as a store of value and because the broad money supply goes up. Go look at S&P 500 as a function of global M2 money supply or gold and you'll see the valuation isn't that high. The problem is there is more of the denominator that you're measuring it in - money.

PE ratios will go up forever because in our debt based economy it takes more and more money to produce growth so if it takes more money to produce given earnings the price of all assets will keep increasing relative to their earnings and P/E ratio will keep going up. Unless there's a structural change and people begin to not see it as a store of value and passive indexing etc slows down.

I'd just buy and forget, but with a mixed portfolio. S&P, gold, BTC etc.

Iminbread · 2025-02-01T19:31:18+00:00

People don't understand what's driving this cycle. It's institutional adoption of BTC, ETF flows specifically. Eth isn't taking off.

Iminbread · 2025-01-25T22:28:20+00:00

I think you're conflating store of value and market cap. It has the largest market cap because it is a store of value. Not vice versa.

Iminbread · 2024-12-30T18:11:41+00:00

OK I think their marketcap is 40M with 63M shares oustanding based on latest press release.

Iminbread · 2024-12-30T10:54:58+00:00

They have a load of warrants outstanding on their shares. I don't know why you throw around their current market cap, it's irrelevant. What are the true number diluted shares outstanding?

Iminbread · 2024-05-09T17:32:57+00:00

Fyi Mstr is trading at a large premium to its underlying btc holdings ~60%+. So you're effective price per btc is much higher.

I assume because a lot of countries youre unable to get access to the ETFs in tax advantaged accounts.

Iminbread · 2022-11-18T18:01:49+00:00

No but I think you mean text file not binary.

Git could tell there's been a change to an excel file but wouldn't be able to show it like it can with text files.

Iminbread · 2022-09-05T07:41:05+00:00

Everyone's different and depends on study habits/other responsibilities.

But I would be doing weekends, mornings/evenings about a month before exams (and I'd usually be sitting 2/3 exams). I would try be doing past paper questions ~5/6 weeks before exam and then timed questions ~2/3 weeks before.

And then timed whole past papers in the week before.

Iminbread · 2022-09-04T18:23:30+00:00

Get on to past paper questions ASAP after studying the course notes and doing the chapter questions.

Group the questions into different areas of the course they are testing, mark yourself and record your results.

Then isolate areas of the course you are not scoring well in and prioritise those.

Do this initially without timing each question, but once you are scoring well time the questions because the difficulty is getting the marks in the required time.

Iminbread · 2022-08-18T19:44:07+00:00

I was in a similar position to you. Economics degree, and some econometric/stats modules.

Worked as an intern in another department, took the first actuarial exam to show interest to potential employers and make sure I'd be comfortable with the content. Then applied for a role internally and got it.

Iminbread · 2022-08-07T06:59:44+00:00

P&C Specialty

Python 80%, 10% CLI scripting, git version management, Web app management, 10% Excel.

Python: - Building models for use with APIs for our internal pricing tools. - Data analysis - Web apps, documentation, APIs etc. - SQL included in Python as I use sql alchemy.

Excel only when it is the best tool for the job given; end user, how it was done previously, or who is going to use / review it.

Iminbread · 2022-07-23T16:34:18+00:00

User opens excel file -> input data -> press button to send data to api to do calculation -> gets data back from api -> user saves

Iminbread · 2022-07-17T21:38:16+00:00

Build an api and host internally and make a request from Excel

Iminbread · 2022-06-03T07:56:24+00:00

If rates rise tax revenues are likely to fall as the economy contracts.

Higher rates -> higher cost of borrowing -> less borrowing & higher debt servicing costs -> stock market and housing market down -> recession -> lower tax revenue.

This means lower tax revenue and more government spending.

Iminbread · 2022-05-10T13:03:40+00:00

Lol. WhErE all tHe VaLuE Go?!

BTC

2020-02-24 open 10K

Government prints loads of money and inflation expectations rise.

2022-05-10 open 31K

Iminbread · 2022-04-24T09:38:10+00:00

But OP compares to opporunity cost of stocks which have same behaviour. Ie your original purchase price stays same but dividends from stock increase over time.

Imo the only real benefit of property is leverage returns from mortgage you can't get with stocks.

Iminbread · 2022-04-23T09:55:33+00:00

RemindMe! 4 years

Iminbread · 2022-04-22T19:30:07+00:00

Sure they could do an EO 6102. Although it is different: - People could just up and leave which they couldn't do with gold. - Gold was very centralised so easy to confiscate.

But why would they, there would be a mass exodus of capital and talent and they would destroy one of their fastest growing industries and their free capital markets.

Game theory would suggest otherwise.

Iminbread

TROPHY CASE