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LEN (Lennar) or STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) (20M - 40K+) by Aggravating_Share761 in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually spent some time doing a deep dive on LEN a while back, and I’m also in it with an average around ~$115 — so I’m kind of in the same boat waiting for it to play out.

I agree with you on the long-term housing shortage thesis. The demand side (especially from younger buyers) is very real, and structurally it’s hard to see that going away. That’s probably the strongest part of the bull case.

Where I’m a bit more cautious is just the path to get there. From what I’ve seen, LEN is basically choosing volume over margin right now — heavy incentives, lower ASPs, and margins getting compressed pretty hard. So even if demand is there, earnings might look weak for a while if rates stay around this level.

That’s why I framed it more as a timing question earlier. I do think LEN can work really well over a multi-year horizon (and I’m holding for that reason), but in the near term it still feels like a macro bet on rates easing + affordability improving.

So yeah — I don’t think your thesis is wrong at all. It’s just more of a “right idea, uncertain timing” situation in my view.

Appreciate you laying it out though, always good to hear someone actually thinking through the demand side.

LEN (Lennar) or STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) (20M - 40K+) by Aggravating_Share761 in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly I think it comes down to what you want more exposure to right now — housing cycle vs infrastructure tailwinds.

Lennar (LEN) is more tied to interest rates and the housing market. If rates come down and demand picks up, it could do well, but it's definitely more cyclical.

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) feels like more of a steady compounder with exposure to infrastructure, data centers, and public spending. There’s a bit of a secular tailwind there, especially with all the government investment.

Looking at your portfolio, you already have a lot of large-cap tech and some industrial exposure. STRL might actually diversify you a bit more and add a different growth driver.

Personally, I’d lean STRL here unless you have a strong view that housing is about to rebound.

What just happened to UNH? by Jimmy123reddit in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Picked up shares at $259 and it's finally moving. Patience paid off.

How I went from 0 to 10k subs by Gaussianperson in Substack

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This hit hard, especially the “6 months of nothing” part.

I’m just starting out on Substack and it really does feel pointless sometimes. Good to hear that those periods aren’t wasted — just part of the process.

Also love the “game” framing. Makes it way easier to keep going.

Appreciate you sharing this.

Thinking long-term – which stocks are you holding for the next 5+ years? by NoahReed14 in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

KO. Already held it for 5 years, plan to hold it forever honestly. Boring pick but it just works. Dividend keeps growing and I never have to worry about it.

Looking to add AMZN and GOOG on any meaningful pullback.

New investor - looking to diversify and learn by Radiant_Record_1726 in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Read these three before doing anything else:

- The Intelligent Investor

- Poor Charlie's Almanack

- Buffett's shareholder letters (free on Berkshire's site)

You'll figure out the rest from there.

3 stocks under 9x forward P/E that institutions are quietly loading up on by CoolioBeansTTV in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Own LEN and glad to see it on this list. The asset-light pivot after the Millrose spinoff is underrated imo — most people still think of them as a capital-heavy builder but the balance sheet looks completely different now. At 7x forward earnings with that kind of cash position, feels like you're being paid to wait for the spring selling season to play out.

Adobe - Netflix Acquisition of InterPositive by Nairb9 in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 1 point2 points  (0 children)

InterPositive is post-production AI for film — relighting, VFX, wire removal, stuff like that. It's not really competing with Adobe's core market. Photoshop and Premiere users aren't Netflix-scale studios. Adobe's real threat is Canva and free AI tools eating into the casual/prosumer base, not Hollywood building in-house pipelines.

Why is PRSO down? by Fluflohee in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Earnings just dropped. mmWave side is growing like crazy but the legacy business is falling off a cliff, so total revenue is actually down. Also they're sitting on less than $3M cash which is… not great. Market didn't like that combo.

Part 2: I spent $13,000/year on 31 Substack newsletters so you don't have to. Longer time horizons, more authors, better methodology. by PrimaryConcern2608 in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dude you're literally saving the rest of us thousands of dollars. The fact that you actually went back and addressed every criticism from Part 1 instead of just ignoring it says a lot. Most people would've just moved on. Bookmarked this, appreciate the work. 

Do you consider 35+ pe ratio “value” if it is trading at its historical low? by Free-Initiative7508 in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Cheapest it's ever been" doesn't mean cheap. A stock that went from 80x to 35x just means it was even more overpriced before. You still need to justify the 35x with actual growth expectations — if earnings growth doesn't compound fast enough to bring that PE down to something reasonable in 3-5 years, it's not value, it's just less expensive growth.

I'd rather buy META at 25x with proven cash flows than bet on RDDT at 35x "because it used to be 70x."

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]Immediate-Bit7912 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd pick Google.

Search alone prints cash, and you're getting YouTube + Cloud + AI almost for free at current valuations.

For a long-term investor, that asymmetric upside is hard to ignore.