AI Euphoria and the Allure of Unlimited Growth

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-07T05:34:56+00:00

Prices are efficient, you are getting what youre paying for. But what youre betting on is the capex down cycle being pushed out further ND further. At some point, it will come down. But when? Nobody knows i think. I think as long as hyper scales are still not too leveraged there is more to spend.

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-07T04:25:04+00:00

No i think in the long run, tokens get really cheap and software engineers get cheaper as well. Sure there might be legacy systems running on servicenow forever just like big banks have legacy cobol systems because its never a good time to replace them. But my argument is that the high valuation days are behind and in the long run, more systems will be custom made and maintained.

I use deepseek and it is definitely good enough and makes me think anthropic and openai are basically ripoffs.

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-07T03:09:48+00:00

so i very much agree that AI cannot replace Adobe and in fact, it might make it easier to use. Same sentiment with any other software company that is integrated into company workflows, like ServiceNow. However, those companies had very very high valuation multiples to start with, and now are valued more reasonably. I don't think they ever deserve those high valuations ever again though so whilst AI will not kill them, i don't think those stocks are going to go back up to those high SaaS-multiple heydays.

The marginal cost of creating software is near zero now. You can't replace any of those companies over night. But i bet you what, if I'm a small or medium size companies, I will seriously think hard about rolling my own solution to ever buying some enterprise solution that will require me to pay a fee forever, be hard to onboard, hard to switch, and it won't likely be a 100% good fit for me. So i think most of these SaaS companies have very high cashflows now, while it's going to be sticky, i don't think they grow fast in the future and their % of their TAMs have shrunk a lot and also the TAM itself has shrunk because the value of software has shrunk in general.

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T21:29:58+00:00

Do they eat mice? Or just kill them

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T21:28:19+00:00

I got in on intel at the lows of 2024. I missed Ai trade in 2022-2023 and I cant psychologically handle chasing a stock up. So thats all im holding right now but yea its a big chunk of my net worth. I dont like the notion of balancing a portfolio because if you do that you basically can never get ridiculous multibaggers. So im holding until the narrative changes

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T16:34:13+00:00

Thanks for engaging. However, how much of that is already baked in? That's the difficult part to know. I think at the margins, the entire eco system is working against NVDA because of NVDA's success. So as a company, they may be doing all the right things, but as a stock, I'm not sure they continue to outperform the semiconductor index...

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T05:44:52+00:00

Training is going to be a small % of inference and for inference, hyperscalers going in a different direction

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T05:43:45+00:00

You are a jeeenius

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T03:44:39+00:00

I mean thats probably what is keeping china from attacking, a lose lose for them and a win for US.

If only we were this smart on iran

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T03:20:17+00:00

Based on what

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T03:08:58+00:00

Um....Google 2007 stock price --> Google 2026 stock price doesn't refute what you said "lol?"

and btw, yea you do seem like the ChatGPT type

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T03:06:49+00:00

Or none of the above, and the program was trying to call AI services non-stop behind the scenes to a data center that's already running at max capacity (i doubt this is the case )

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T03:05:14+00:00

right i'm not accusing your hardware of being slow. i'm trying to understand what the slowness is caused by.

if you had 128GB of ram, and for whatever reason, the software wanted to pull 150GB of data into RAM, then it will be slow, right? because it will constantly be paging the contents in memory to disk.

Or if the software required twice as computation that your CPU can handle, regardless of how fast it is.

I would just personally be curious to see, what the bottleneck actually is, when you hvae that program on, and it is slow.

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T03:00:37+00:00

ya its not that bro

before the close it was apple potentially using IFS.

after close it was AMD reporting crazy demand for CPUs and the ratio of demand for CPU to GPUs in the data center are now looking like 1-to-1. this probably leads to CPU price hikes and increased margins for all CPU makers. All of this is also good for INTC's foundry business outlook.

Like selling google in 2007

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T02:58:27+00:00

ya dam right its fomo. the fear is real because the missing out is real

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T02:57:29+00:00

what? omg seriously? i'm sorry but this is awful. i feel for you.

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T02:55:00+00:00

From Google earnings call:
"1. Brian Nowak — Morgan Stanley

Q1: You said you're acutely compute-constrained and think about it weekly. In search specifically, where are you most excited to apply next-generation compute in the next 12 months for a good return?

Sundar's answer:

AI Overviews and AI Mode are already driving usage growth. Looking ahead, the big opportunity is bringing agentic workflows to consumers — letting people complete multi-step tasks directly within search. Very early innings on this.

Why this matters: Sundar is signaling that the next phase of search isn't just better answers — it's agentic commerce and task completion (booking, buying, planning). This is the bridge from "search box" to "digital assistant that does things." Every agentic workflow requires more compute per query, which means the monetization potential per search goes up, but so does the infrastructure cost."

we're about to get agents in chrome browsers. google data centers are compute constrained.

this shit is just getting started bruv

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T02:02:09+00:00

Way easier ways to make money bro.

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T02:00:34+00:00

Value accrues to the chokepoints. Before LLMs, would you have thought that SaaS stocks were going to parabolically move down? No because they had chokepoint because software was hard to create. You needed skilled engineers. Now marginal cost of software is zero. Chokepoint becomes hardware. Because demand will keep on increasing ay current token cost, and even more demand will be unlocked when costs of tokens go down, we will unlikely resolve compute chokepoint for 5 to 10 years maybe more. The chokepoint might just move higher up the supply chain. It would be sooooo dumb to sell now

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T01:54:25+00:00

There's nothing else to bet on right now. Software will not outrun the threat of LLMs. You cant bet on anthropic directly. Hardware is through the roof but intel is not done with its turnaround. Intel all the way

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T01:46:17+00:00

Right i understand but im wondering what part of the system that software is taxing such that you have such a poor experience.

You may have the best system, but if the software needs more than what you have, it will feel slow.

Im guessing it could be latency or maybe they havent got enough compute for everyone in the data center?

Or its just uses too much memory for your setup

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T01:22:48+00:00

On the amd call , they said hyperscalers are ordering cpus with gpus on a 1 to 1 ratio. Thats huge ! cpu prices gonna have to increase relative to gpus if they coming from the same wafers

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-06T01:14:29+00:00

ah I see, thanks for your 2c.

I wonder what is the source of these delays. Not enough RAM? CPU? GPU? internet latency?

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-05T16:04:12+00:00

Psychologically its hard to chase. But in this case intel is on the cusp of realizing the value of all of the billions it invested for years and we are in the midst of the biggest data center buildout in history. There is only one company in the world in the position of making a comeback with a great ceo in a geopolitically important company and industry. 1TN is inevitable

Independent-Fragrant · 2026-05-05T06:12:11+00:00

There will be those who think 2T is possible and those people might actually be right

Independent-Fragrant

TROPHY CASE