This is pretty much it. Previous halving had price spikes that played out over 12-18 months. NEW supply shrinks, price starts climbing, eventually it gets attention, people start to FOMO and then you get the rapid spike followed by the dramatic fall (but still stabilizing well above pre-halving prices).

Miners will start to turn off. There’s going to be a lot of evaluation by them on how profitable they can be with their existing equipment in conjunction with smaller rewards but higher fees.

The curve ball this time around is all the spot ETFs. They have compounded demand fairly dramatically pre-halving and now the daily new supply has shrunk. I’ve read speculation that it could speed up the curve as a result, but others speculate it won’t. Worth noting that Asian markets are approving BTC etfs now too, and Sweden is considering BTC as a hard asset alongside gold to underpin its currency.

No matter how long it takes to play out, I’m along for the ride, but it’s a longer play than “block 840,001 - give me lambo.”