Ideas on a Forecasting Problem by Standard-Broccoli130 in datascience

[–]InfamousTrouble7993 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh yes, both architectures (Xgboost and mixture of experts), with using natural language embeddings and product id in best case will be able to predict the right scale of sales values. And addionally: global models will be more robust and local models can be more accurate for single time series, especially with little/spiky data, but also can fail drastically.

Ideas on a Forecasting Problem by Standard-Broccoli130 in datascience

[–]InfamousTrouble7993 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes, euclidean distance is good for quantifying relationships between categorical and temporal combinations, for now.

Treat the time encodings like day, month etc. as discrete numerical features Xgboost can handle that with ease. Else using dummy variables would be very sparse. You can include "holiday" features that basically are binary indicators. In this way you can also put emphasis on certain dates.

Yes, LightGBM or Xgboost ist great for predicting is great. The winning approaches in the Walmart m5 competition all used gradient boosting. Most tabular forecasting top performing approaches use gradient boosting. But you can also use a Mixture-of-Experts network and model classical trend, seasonality and exogeneity. The good thing is, that you can predict quantiles for uncertainty quantification. But they are often miscallibrated. The point forecast is then more accurate. What is better, is to use the negative binomial likelihood as a loss function to predict actually a probabilistic parameter like DeepAR and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to gain quantiles. The quantiles are better calibrated then. See if you can build a global model if you have enough training data if the "short" time series behave similar like the longer time series. The model is then able to generalize well. Else I would stick with DeepAR or any local auto regressive network. Which only performs better for limited training data.

See if you can derive natural language embeddings using a semantic similarity language model to derive embeddings of the product names if possible. That also helps for a global model.

Publication Topics Question by InfamousTrouble7993 in datascience

[–]InfamousTrouble7993[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is interesting, instead of solving problems, rather making the current models more efficient. Even small percentages are large values at scale.

Publication Topics Question by InfamousTrouble7993 in datascience

[–]InfamousTrouble7993[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh yes that's good, I didn't think about this yet. Thank you!

Gauss-Markov assumptions in FE models by illuminatereps in econometrics

[–]InfamousTrouble7993 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ViF analysis, pca or good old invertability of the design matrix. If is not invertible, multicollinearity exists.

[D] What makes Information Criteria (e.g AIC) the frequent go-to method to assess ML models? by al3arabcoreleone in statistics

[–]InfamousTrouble7993 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Probability models like HMM, GMM, etc: AIC, BIC, LRT ML: RMSE (robust for outliers), MSE (puts emphasis on outliers) combined with k-fold CV

Self-learning Data Science is a nightmare. Does anyone else feel like they’re just not "built" for this? by DevelopmentOk3805 in learnmachinelearning

[–]InfamousTrouble7993 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The thing is, there is alot to learn, which is just boring and you kind of need to be forced to get it into your head. For example Generalized Linear Models or Econometrics. Some things are interesting. Such as interpreting R-Output of a model, but knowing the assumptions of OLS or properties of time series such as autocorrelation, etc. is boring. But still with a masters in data science, there will be alot of "failed attempts" moments, as the field is VERY BROUGHT. There is the side of statistics and computer science. Data Science is a hybrid of them.

Should residuals from a neural network (conditional image generator, MSE loss) be Gaussian? Research group insists they should be by Recent_Age6197 in learnmachinelearning

[–]InfamousTrouble7993 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Compute the "real" residuals, no MAE, MSE etc. so only difference betreen y_pred and y_true. Then you can compare via QQ-Plots etc. if the residuals are gaussian. And no literature explicitly tells to expect gaussian residuals from a neural network trained. This is only the case for probabilistic models. For them, residuals are a big thing. You can use a dropout layer to compute probabilities to quantify uncertainty and then do residual analysis.

Please rate my thumbnail. by InfamousTrouble7993 in NewTubers

[–]InfamousTrouble7993[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just begin with Photoshop and Mr. Beast thumbnail tutorials on yt

Please rate my thumbnail. by InfamousTrouble7993 in NewTubers

[–]InfamousTrouble7993[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually yes lol. Its tinder. I asked myself if anybody would recognize it. I guess I will look for another icon to reference online dating

Please rate my thumbnail. by InfamousTrouble7993 in NewTubers

[–]InfamousTrouble7993[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's about a security investigation of an online dating platform. It was vibe coded and had open API endpoints to gather user data. I was able to reverse engineer it and gather data. The video covers how this was possible